RE: Burkina Faso coup5 Oct 2022 16:08
Meanwhile, the mobilization announced by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin so far has a more significant short-term impact on the internal situation in Russia than on the course of the war in Ukraine. The ISW explained that the mobilization period coincided with new Russian failures at the front, which has only exacerbated discord in the Russian information space, undermining Putin's narratives as well.
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“Ukrainian sources correctly point out that partial mobilization doesn’t pose a serious threat in the short term, since the Ukrainian counteroffensive is moving faster than mobilization can have an effect,” the Institute’s experts emphasize.
For now, Putin is clearly failing to manage the balance of power and the competing demands of Russian nationalists, who have become increasingly militant since mobilization began—although they share Putin’s common goals and objectives regarding the war in Ukraine. The Russian dictator needs to maintain the support of at least three main "factions" in the current Russian nationalist information space, according to the Institute:
military bloggers and “military correspondents” who present Putin’s views on the invasion of Ukraine to a pro-military audience both in Russia and in puppet quasi-republics;
the "veteran" community - former Russian officers and veterans who help organize and conduct campaigns to recruit new forces;
Russian security forces, or siloviki, who provide the combat power of the Russian army on the battlefield (ISW also includes groups led by Chechen warlord and Putin vassal Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner mercenary company owner Yevgeny Prigozhin in this list).
“Putin needs all three factions to support his military campaign, but the failures in Ukraine, combined with the chaotic partial mobilization, appear to be destroying the radical nationalist community in Russia,” states the ISW.
Thus, the "military correspondents" have began to increasingly question each other's rights to offer recommendations for the Russian Armed Forces. And the accusations of Kadyrov and Prigozhin against the commander of the Central Military District, Alexander Lapin, has provoked a split between the security forces and military bloggers, who came to the defense of Lapin (presumably he commanded the Russian troops near Lyman in Donetsk Oblast). Meanwhile, the veteran community of Russia is sharply criticizing the way Putin's mobilization is being carried out.
“The fragmentation of the Russian nationalist information space can have serious internal consequences and even affect the stability of the Putin regime,” the ISW concludes.
“Putin will not be able to meet the mutually exclusive demands of various groups.”