Member Info for Biffadog

My first post explains the percentage holding in HUR by CA.

My second post explains the percentage of total NAV the HUR holding is to CA in terms of CA's NAV ( i.e about 20&).

Suggest you go FYH....

Chikungfunk,

Suggest you stop posting until you know what you are talking about.

If you want to work out percentage CA hold in terms of NAV then just divide "pence per share" by "Total NAV".

GLA.

Guys,

To set the record straight on CA's holding.

Firstly the 4.8% and 5.3% apply to the percentage they hold of HUR's shares in issue. Fact.

Secondly, CA got 23M new shares between the two CA holding RNS's in question. This is approximately 1.15% of total shares in issue.

So, CA went could have held up to 5.95% (4.8% + 1.15%) if they hadn't sold some of the new shares they received as a result of the conversion of the warrants.

Whilst CA may have forward sold some of these shares, the result is that CA were net sellers of HUR during the period between the two holding RNSs, having disposed of about 13M shares (0.65% of shares in issue).

Considering the volumes involved of late, I have to say that whilst CA selling hasn't helped the SP, it certainly has had a fairly minimal effect on things.

Hope that helps.

GLA.

Hi Genghis,

I agree that the most likely explanation is that the BOD think it is a waste of time and money to hit the main market as they feel there is a strong chance of the company being "interrupted" along the way and bought out.

I'm not sure how much a boost to the SP it's worth anyway. HUR with an Mcap of over £1B are open to plenty of institutional investors as it stands.

AS gave a huge "nod and a wink" to this outcome during the AGM itself.

I also think they are just too busy at the moment anyway, as a main market listing would involve HUR putting on a bit of a roadshow and this is very time consuming in itself.

My throwaway comment "who knows" would probably have been best left out of that post, as I think we have a pretty reasonable idea of where this is heading, subject to the usual caveats.

GLA.

chablard,

Whilst a main market listing would be nice, I think there are plenty more important catalysts to shake off 55p than that.

Positive drilling results at GWA and positive news from the Lancaster EPS will derisk HUR and that's what really counts because without the latter we are going nowhere.

There will be plenty of investors watching and waiting for FB (WOS) to be proven before wading in.

My view is that the HUR BOD have now chosen to delay a main market listing.

Whether it is because they are simply too busy or they think the company will be sold by 2020 (or both) who knows ?

GLA.

With circa $300M free cash flow at $70 oil and $20 Opex, HUR are in an excellent position to secure a favourable RBL after 6 months Lancaster EPS production.

Combining this with a FO partner means HUR are going to have no need for an equity raise and further dilution.

It was stressed at the AGM that further equity raises were not on the cards.

That was the upside of getting the dilution pain out the way in 2017.

I think it's easy to forget what an enviable position HUR are in for a young E&P company. Very rare indeed.

Money in the bank (circa $50M), $300M p.a. free cash flow in 6 months time and massive reserves.

GLA.

CMD is Thursday 11th July.

I agree with Moonlanding. I wouldn't underestimate the impact of the CMD.

Initial analysis of data from the EPS start up and early production.

GLA.

It's all very nice and all that but it's 2 years old now.

Looking forward to the 2019 CMD though.

GLA.

Hi Rangers1,

I agree that the article is very ambiguous.

Apologies if I have been a bit presumptive in my post as it was not my intention. You could well be correct in your reading of it.

I think Shell are definitely a very likely candidate (more so than BP) to do some business with HUR over the coming years and it's no coincidence that they snapped up a lot of the acreage immediately adjacent to HUR in the last WOS licensing funds.

Only time will tell.

GLA.

I think you will find that "conventional" is referring to that part of Shell's business as opposed to the type of reservoir !!

Shell's "conventional" business is oil and gas but they are now very much involved in renewables and all sorts of other businesses.

GLA.

Sorry but I cannot add to what I have said in my post.

It's just my perception of reactions (body language) by various people at the AGM when asked about it.

However, it's important to say that nobody actually commented either way. It was made clear at the start of the AGM that no further information would be given out in the Q&A session than tat which had already been provided.

Whether you trust my judgement in these matters is entirely up to you.

It's one of the main reasons I go to these AGMs.

I wouldn't post a rumour on here anyway.

Hope that helps.

Morning SIPP,

A very interesting article.

It think it is highly likely that Shell will get involved with HUR at some stage.

Speaking to Roy Kelly at the AGM, he confirmed what AS said last year in that there were no offers (even derisory ones) made to HUR for a FO arrangement back in 2017.

He said that nobody expected HUR to pull a $530M rabbit out of the hat and whilst all the main players had had a good root round the data room, they were just waiting to pick up HUR for peanuts when financing was not forthcoming.

The boot is on the other foot now and providing FB (WOS) proves up as expected over the coming months (we will have a good indication at least by 3-6 months, as the interpretation of initial EPS data becomes available and flow rates are increased at 3 and 6 months to 13k and17k bopd) then HUR can strike a good deal for GLA.

On that point, it's worth noting that we will not have to wait 12 months for a binary shift in the SP. It's just a 12 month period for 100% conclusive proof. As the picture becomes clearer over the next 3-9 months and it looks more and more likely that FB (WOS) is cool then so the SP will rise in anticipation as the risk decreases.

I think the Spirit deal blindsided the other players somewhat and has greatly aided HUR's negotiating position going forward and for that alone was worth doing.

Looking forward to seeing a company like Shell getting involved in either a GLA FO or a buy out of HUR lock, stock and barrel.

You had to be at the AGM to see how confident the BOD are that HUR will get bought out sooner rather than later.

I think WD is a winner too although nobody could actually say this out loud.

Have a good weekend.

GLA.

wellwell,

Your definition of "dud" is very different to mine.

HUR hit oil in significant quantities at Halifax.

Admittedly DST was not possible but hardly a "dud".

GLA.

Agree. CA do not control the SP. Fact.

However, selling into the rise does not make them any friends with the average PI (and others) and these high profile sales, historically tranches of 20M (or 1% of shares in issue) over a short time frame, certainly do not help the cause.

HUR is a favourite of the big institutional traders and it is they that have a far bigger influence over the SP than CA but at least they don't publicly trash the BOD.

GLA.

Still no TR-1 from CA.

I'm not saying it's not CA selling some shares but an equally likely explanation is that people are taking profits after the FOIL RNS and/or derisking before the WD drill result.

Good to see support at the 55p level mind.

Either explanation (or a combination of the two) holds water.

For the record, I think having CA as an investor provides no benefit at all to HUR, and if anything, they are a hindrance.

Not only do they have a proven history of selling into the rise but RB is not above petulant rants in the press and twitter regarding the BOD. He is massively overexposed to HUR for a professionally managed fund, hence the occasional stress induced temper tantrum.

The sooner they are gone the better. They had NO friends at the AGM that's for sure.

GLA.

Thedriver,

Do you think it's at all likely that you might add something of worth to this board.

Personally, I think it's unlikely.

Funnily enough you remind me of the recently departed "the street'. Disappeared with his tail between his legs following his fantasy trades off into the sun. One and the same ?

Go on add some value. I dare you.

GLA.

As an aside, I'm not sure what all the fuss is all about regarding Rob Trice not being there.

NONE of the people that attended the AGM that I spoke to had a problem with it for obvious reasons.

It would seem to be the people that didn't go that had taken issue with it. Oh the irony of that.

GLA.

Afternoon extrader,

Having been involved in the conversation with Roy Kelly (there were a group of about 5 of us I seem to remember) and having spoken about this with you in the pub afterwards, I agree with what you have outlined 100%

I think the line given by SMcT about the parameters that need to be met getting more difficult etc was a bit of a red herring and think that a move to the main market could well hinder a potential sale of the company, particularly if it all kicks off in 2020.

It would certainly suit the Directors better from a tax prospective if the company was listed on AIM when this happens but I mention this as an aside and am not for one moment suggesting this would blinker their decision making on this issue. I do not believe that it would.

It would keep things a lot simpler though and I also feel it would be a waste of valuable management time to go for a main listing in the short/medium term.

We are extremely fortunate to have a significant shareholder such as Kerogen. That 21.5% share holding is as you quite rightly say, the golden key.

It's also good to see the "Chinese hostile TO" theory kicked firmly into the long grass.

GLA.

Just to be clear, my money is on the company being sold as a whole.

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a GLA FO arrangement preceding said sale. Whether or not the GLA FO partner(s) and the buyer of HUR are one and the same, remains to be seen.

In the meantime, the company follows it's clearly laid out plans to increasing 2P reserves and production.

It's a winner which ever way it goes.

GLA.

I think that HUR are only really looking to sell the company as whole. I think this would also suit Kerogen better.

The advantage for prospective purchasers is economies of scale operating GWA and GLA she by side whilst giving HUR a clean break.

In which case, you will simply be paid the agreed sale price for your share holding.

Only my opinion by why make things messy when a clean exit is available.

GLA.