Member Info for Beza

Changing the subject slightly, has anybody seen what is happening in the Ukraine? Reports of the US ‘watching developments’... Do we think Russia’s antics could affect the oil price etc, etc.

Pure Evil, good question. All I know is that Enwell Energy and JKX oil are both U.K. based oil companies with wells in the Ukraine. It might be worth keeping an eye on their prices for any signs that the market is getting spooked.

Coal prices remain strong. I guess the questions are how much did BISI mine during the pandemic (did it affect production) and has the commercial property portfolio been re valued recently.

Morning Krok, I always read your research messages with interest. Do you specialise in small cap energy companies? If so, have you looked at/ ever seen Serinus Energy (SENX). It’d be interesting to hear your thoughts... Regards.

Yes I see now. Phew! That’s a relief. I’m a holder and I’ve persuaded the wife to buy some too! So we are holding on to our shares. All the best.

Longtime, Nick Sanders thinks these are overpriced? Why?

Could yesterday’s large trading volume be anything to do with ‘bed and ISA’ of shares for the financial year?

This is such a frustrating share to own... it’s on an undemanding valuation, it’s now paying a divi but it’s price won’t rise, even though many of the other financials are. Hmm

Thanks ErrHum, great info. Regards

Previous experience has taught me that the buy / sell info on this site can be unreliable. But something caused the price to be marked down. Let’s see what tomorrow brings but on a day when nearly everything is up this doesn’t bode well... I hope that it recovers tomorrow but I’m not confident. We need Lockwood to present to the market.

ErrHum, what do you make the NAV to be? Cheers

Hi CM, there’s no reference to where the info comes from but I’m guessing broker estimates. Either broker concensus or, in the case of smaller companies which don’t have as many covering the stock, I would expect and prospective numbers to be from the House Broker.

Morning CM,
Yes I see what you are saying. The reason for my post was to highlight that Stockopedia’s previous forecasts for 2021 and 2022 (revenue, eps, p/e) were all in the red but now, after their results / presentation 2022 has been revised upwards and is now in the black , but I take your point. What is your opinion of their figures / projections? 53$M turnover and 3$M profit? Regards.

Don’t you think they are accurate? I assumed that they would be taken from Broker forecasts.

I’ve noticed that Stockopedia has new, revised forecasts for Senx, which have been revised upwards in the last couple of days. Previously, 2021 and 2022 were both showing a loss and all figures (earning etc) were negative. But now, although 2021 remains the same, 2022 is showing total revenue $53M and profit $3M.

Thanks ConMan,
So it looks as though the price on the Polish stock exchange has dropped from 22p (pre results) to 18p this morning.

Do any of you guys what the share price is on the Polish stock exchange after the results? Or where do we look for it? Regards

Here is the closing paragraph which completes the article.
Final thoughts
Directors offloading shares isn’t necessarily a bad sign, however they do have access to far more information than ordinary investors – what the political situation is like, local relationships and how operations are performing.

Equally most people want to make money – I’m not sure directors would be selling their shares if they thought they’d be going up in the near term!

Shanta is still one of my favorite gold miners and I’ll continue to keep an eye on it. I’m somewhat tempted at current prices – 10p a share would be even more compelling!

Till next week!

Morning Chaps,
I found this article on the web regarding SHG so I thought I’d share. However it appeared that the last part seems to be missing - apologies..

Joel’s Resource Report – Surprising Selling #SHG

Joel DeakinMarch 24, 2021 11:23 am 0
Hi all, trust you’re having a great week – with the days getting longer and the sun shining, things feel like they’re on the up!

One company which isn’t on the up is AIM-listed gold miner Shanta Gold.

I last covered Shanta Gold for cube (premium content) back in January when I discussed its highly inefficient dilution and placing.

As a shareholder (at that time), I was disappointed that a company would do a placing and then start talking about dividends – you should not dilute equity holders to pay dividends!

Disclosure: I recently sold out of Shanta Gold and not because I don’t like the business. It was due to my feeling that gold may not do well if yields increase.

Since I sold, the shares are down more than 15% and have started to look a little tempting to me.

Valuation?
At 12.25 pence to buy, the market cap is £128 million:

(Source: Google)

Enterprise Value (EV)

Net Cash at year end equaled $37.3 million (£27 million)

EV = Market Cap – Net Cash
EV = £128 million – 27 million = £101 million
Cash generated from operations after costs?

Assume all-in sustaining costs (AISC) including development costs of $1100 an ounce (using top end of guidance to be conservative).

Gold price = $1700 (conservatively using below today’s $1736 an ounce)
Margin = $1700 – $1100 = $600
80,000 ounces * 600 = $48 million (£35 million)
My costs and other assumptions come from Shanta’s 2021 outlook.

This means that Shanta is trading at about three times the cash it could generate – pretty cheap!

Director Dealings
Investors rightly look at what Directors are doing and given what I’ve highlighted above, you might think that directors would be keen to hold onto their golden shares – not so!

On the 19th March, it was announced that:

“Eric Zurrin has sold a total of 2,045,688 Ordinary Shares (equivalent to 15% of holding) at an average price of 13.3 pence per Ordinary Share and Luke Leslie has sold 2,823,000 Ordinary Shares (equivalent to 27% of holding) at an average price of 13.2 pence per Ordinary Share”.

The company went on to state:

“A significant proportion of executive compensation continues to be paid in shares and this is the first sale of shares in four years during the CEO and CFO’s tenure as Company Executives”.

It could just be a question of executives looking to sell shares when they’re not in a closed period. However if directors believed the company was genuinely cheap, would they really be doing this?

Despite their sudden keenness to sell shares, they had bought a few back in October at 16.5 pence in the recent placing:

(Source: Shanta)

Director Robin Fryer also started to offload shares shortly after buying some, he waited just two months before dumping all of his shares.

Final thoughts
Directors offloading shares isn’t necessarily a bad sign, however they do have access to far more in