Management16 Mar 2013 23:43
In my view, the management team failed to properly assess the risks and obstacles that are inherent in these operations. They consistently forecast earlier and higher production volumes than those achieved. In June 2011 (AGM) they expected 4.000-5,000 by end Q1-2012 and 7,000-9,000 by end Q1-2013. As a result they invested in infrastructure that was funded with debt that the production volumes were unable to repay. They were also slow to re-focus on production when earlier technical problems occured at Pad 1 in Lineynoye. As a result the original shareholders were diluted as mangement scrambled to re-finance debt and the SP collapsed. This cost me half of my original investment.
In addition, I feel that the SP will not advance until the terms of any Farm Out are known.
Overall, at these levels, I still think PTR is a good Buy for the potential that it holds if production can be held above 3000+, the remaining wells in the current programme brought in on budget and a clear plan presented to exploit the other acerage.