The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
news on well 112 must be imminent and my guess is that management want to get a steady production flow so that the 3000 bopd can be maintained consistently once the figure is announced. That consistency is a precursor for management (and this share) to rebuild some credibility.
In my view, the management team failed to properly assess the risks and obstacles that are inherent in these operations. They consistently forecast earlier and higher production volumes than those achieved. In June 2011 (AGM) they expected 4.000-5,000 by end Q1-2012 and 7,000-9,000 by end Q1-2013. As a result they invested in infrastructure that was funded with debt that the production volumes were unable to repay. They were also slow to re-focus on production when earlier technical problems occured at Pad 1 in Lineynoye. As a result the original shareholders were diluted as mangement scrambled to re-finance debt and the SP collapsed. This cost me half of my original investment. In addition, I feel that the SP will not advance until the terms of any Farm Out are known. Overall, at these levels, I still think PTR is a good Buy for the potential that it holds if production can be held above 3000+, the remaining wells in the current programme brought in on budget and a clear plan presented to exploit the other acerage.
Just noticed an interesting buy of 1,526,132 shares reported after close .........that is a big trade even for BG. Any suggestions as to who might have bought?
Group revenue was €256m with Ferries & Travel at €160m and Container & Terminal held down to €96m because of lower container volumes offset by slightly better pricing. The total fuel bill came in at €53m and non-fuel costs were €176m due to higher port and charter costs. Consequently, operating profit from continuing operations was €26.5m. Net Debt was €116m due to the share buy back done in 2012. That should reduce to circa€95m by end 2013 as Free Cash Flow (FCF) is circa10%. The FY dividend is maintained at 100cent but has room to grow with this level of FCF and any improvement in volumes should flow through to the bottom line if pricing and fuel costs maintain their current levels. The share trades at circa€20 and should be well supported at this level by the Dividend Yield (c5%) and stable FCF (c10%) with the potential for further advance in Operating Profit as economic conditions in Ireland improve.
There is no point posting on PTR until we get another operations update or news of the Farm-in. The farm in is an important milestone as it will provide a real independant valuation of a major part of this company. Suggestions that the SP should be outside the teens is fanciful.....but at current levels I'd settle for double digits.
A small piece of good news is that production from the Elgin platform (shut-in since March 2012) has restarted. Prior to the incident, Elgin was producing 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Operated by Total with BG interest of 14.1%
I think that O'Brien wants the Aussie holdings and to keep the Indo on a short leash. At this point I'm holding on until the SA assets are sold and the bank loans re-scheduled. I hope O'Brien is working behind the scenes to salvage some of the money he and Desmond have sunk in their shareholding.
I think that O'Brien and Desmond should do a deal with those ex-bond shareholders and take full control of the company. It is more efficient for them and would give them far more editorial influence.
Jaffa - an accruate call. What do your charts say now on 13th November after a reduction in price to under EUR3 per share?