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Perhaps the reason for Redmile's second investment was because they could clearly see that Scancell didn't have the funds or the infrastructure to do justice to either the clinical or preclinical pipeline. They had enough to cover working capital for a year or two and run small scale clinical trials which may not have provided enough data to secure a deal, but not enough to run larger trials, multiple trials or to pour resources into preclinical development. I honestly believe it was as simple as that - they knew Scancell needed follow-on investment and were happy to provide it.

I completely agree that Scancell should bank a commercial deal as soon as possible, primarily because they have over £20m of convertible loan sitting on the books and the redemption date is only 2 years away. Sounds like a long time but in bio terms, it really isn't. This bb can debate until the cows come home about whether or not Redmile will invest further but for me, the real issue is how they play the CLNs. It's a risk that we all need to be aware of, but there is a flip side. Having a deadline looming will bring renewed focus, drive and a sense of urgency IMO and having nearly £50m sitting in the bank means that a massive barrier to success has been removed. Scancell need to see a substantial rise in the SP before the redemption date of the CLNs and will be going all out to achieve that.

'this is always what Redmile does ultimately takes control'

Redmile holds around 80 stocks at any one time and on average holds their long positions for under 18 months. They were founded in 2007 so over the last 13 years will have invested in many hundreds of stocks. You'd think that if their strategy was to always ultimately take control, there would be examples of Redmile acquiring a majority holding in dozens and dozens, if not hundreds of companies and yet, there appears to be just the one - Redx.

If Scancell find themselves in the position of accepting further funds from Redmile then it means they will have spectacularly failed on two counts:-

1) To secure a commercial deal

2) To attract other institutional investors

Ivy, - So are you saying you agree with this statement from hasiba?

'this is always what Redmile does ultimately takes control.

The response to hasiba's post shows that most here would welcome further investment from Redmile but I'm struggling to see any justification for it:-

1) Scancell are fully funded and have all the cash necessary to meet their medium term development goals - why would Redmile want to invest more and more importantly, why would Scancell accept more and inflict further dilution on their shareholders?

2) Even the most optimistic amongst us must accept that Scancell are several years away from phase III trials, why discuss funding now?

3) The strategy from Scancell has always been to run phase I/II clinical trials and then cut a deal - it has never been to take a product all the way through to approval and marketing. So any talk of hundreds of millions of pounds coming Scancell's way should be regarding up front and milestone payments from licensing deals, not about further funding from Redmile.

3) Redmile were not involved in securing a collaboration for Redx with AstraZeneca, it was ongoing and had been for some years before Redmile ever invested in Redx. They gave Redx the cash they needed to survive and to complete the work required to secure the deal, but let's not kid ourselves, it was the brilliant scientists and excellent CEO at Redx who were responsible for the deals.

4) Redmile can't invest any more without triggering rule 9 of the Takeover Code

The calibre of the scientists is the reason why we're all here, for the first time ever they're not hampered by lack of funds. IMO we just need to be patient and allow them to crack on with the job in hand rather than raising the prospect of yet another round of funding .

It appears that having made an initial investment, it was Redmile who approached Scancell and asked what they needed to optimise development of the pipeline. They'll have sat down and gone through a clearly defined and budgeted plan for each product and would have been fully aware that the only clinic ready product was SCIB1. They simply wouldn't have followed on with another £30m investment unless they had been impressed by what they saw.

The beauty of having backing from a specialist life sciences fund is that they have a deep understanding of biotech., the processes and the issues that can arise. They will completely get the fact that it's impossible (and makes no sense) to start a clinical trial unless you have a reasonable expectation that you can complete it without any interruptions. They'll understand that Scancell are doing all they can to minimise the impact of Covid and speed up recruitment by submitting amendments to the trial protocol and opening additional sites.

I've read several posts on here, sorry can't remember who from, but they've been talking about Redmile getting involved in brokering and negotiating deals and generally taking an active role in Scancell . In reality, Redmile have carried out their due diligence, made their investment and will be leaving Scancell to get on with it. For now, they'll be content to sit back and let Scancell follow the development plan and will appreciate that there really is a huge amount going on behind the scenes.

Chelsea,

No I haven't, but it's hard to see how any trials can start until Covid-19 hospital admissions are much lower - they're still running at the rate they were last April.

Chelsea,

You won't see Scancell on the heat map as the data will have been taken from Redmile's 13f SEC filings which only include US listed stocks. All funds over a certain size in the US have to submit quarterly reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission and it's almost a certainty that every article you read which lists holdings for US funds has lifted their information from a 13f filing.

Worth remembering though that as they're always out of date - only show the position at the end of the last quarter and fund managers have 45 days to submit them. Most funds will wait until the very last minute to submit in order to keep their investment strategy private as long as possible.

Well Redmile are a hedge fund after all and taking half of their holdings off the table with a substantial profit and leaving the rest seems to make sense - protected if results of the trials were poor and still holding to take advantage if results were positive. Of course they have a long and close relationship with BioNTech, having invested and exited several times now.

Yep, amazing that just 2 years ago the SP was languishing at around £1.50 and here we are today breaking new highs of £10. No hype, no bulletin board or twitter frenzied posting, just quietly and steadily climbing on the back of solid performance from the Company.

There may well be elderly people who don't want their lives extending and of course death is inevitable for all of us. All we can hope for, both for ourselves and our loved ones is that we have a good death. Without wishing to be blunt, Covid-19 doesn't fit the bill.

Yes that's correct

Interesting, just a couple of months ago they had a cash balance of over $75m with predicted revenue this year of around $180m. Can only think of one reason why they'd want to raise at this stage, they must surely be looking at another acquisition.

The whole episode was a shambles and of course the Redx management at the time were primarily to blame. However, that doesn't absolve Liverpool of any responsibility. Cutting off your nose to spite your face springs to mind:-

'On 24 May 2017, LCC rejected the Company's written offer to make a full repayment of the Loan plus outstanding interest within 7 days of receiving the Default Notice and to meet with me, as the new Chairman, to try and resolve the matter.'

There were no winners here - well perhaps the administrators who were handsomely rewarded for their services and of Course Loxo and Lilly.

The following article is utterly depressing but at the same time highly encouraging for Redx shareholders. Proof that the quality of Redx's science is outstanding and thanks to that, Lilly now have a potential blockbuster in their pipeline.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/events/conferences/ash-2020-uk-biotechs-hollow-victory

This is from Redmile themselves:-

'the Firm utilizes a number of different avenues to provide information leading to an investment decision. The following are sources for the Firm’s ideas: (a) contacts with physicians; (b) focus outside of the United States; (c) dialogue with companies; (d) attendance at medical conferences; (e) meetings with private companies; and (f)regular dialogue within the team.'

'MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Drugs testing is making headlines - and serious cash - and Ergomed is a leader in the field, with serious potential for growth'

Good to see recognition for Richard Barfield, his appointment has been transformative here IMO.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-9021145/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-Ergomed-leader-drugs-testing-field.html

Ruck, LL thanks for your replies.

LL

Not sure I understand your comment about MMR and TB vaccines, perhaps you've read something suggesting a connection between severe COVID-19 and other vaccines. Really want to stay away from anti-vax theories other than to say that this virus has been more closely studied and has more data available than any other in human history. Rest assured, any causal links between a patient's vaccination history and severe Covid-19 would become apparent.

Afaman

I believe that both Pfizer and Moderna only tested their clinical trial patients for Covid-19 when they experienced symptoms and so would have missed asymptomatic patients. Pfizer for sure and I assume Moderna are now looking at further trials to establish for certain whether or not their vax prevents transmission.

However, AZN routinely tested all clinical trial participants in both the treatment and placebo arms for Covid so will have picked up the asymptomatic cases. It seems from their initial results that their vaccine may reduce asymptomatic cases which in turn suggests that it may prevent transmission.

So at the moment nobody knows for certain and there probably won't be a definitive answer for many months. I think it could be a game changer in terms of vaccine uptake - so will be fantastic if any of the vaccines in development are able to demonstrate that they do prevent or significantly reduce transmission.

WTP - they are:-

100 million doses of University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials
40 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials
7 million doses of Moderna vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials
60 million doses of Novavax vaccine – phase 3 clinical trials
60 million doses of Valneva vaccine – pre-clinical trials
60 million doses of GSK/Sanofi Pasteur vaccine – phase 1 clinical trials
30 million doses of Janssen vaccine – phase 2 clinical trials