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Gutter, god your tiresome.

Not that anyone else cares, but i'm revising my costs (didn't change them when i adjusted for the reduced studio's revenue)

So i reckon £400m PBT c7.9 EPS

Now my maths was messed up, reveised:- Basically i estimate the PBT as

Q1 £16m

Q2 £103m

H1 £118m

Q3 £125m

Q4 £160m

H2 £285m

FY £400m

Not that anyone else cares, but i'm revising my costs (didn't change them when i adjusted for the reduced studio's revenue)

So i reckon £400m PBT c7.9 EPS

Basically i estimate the PBT as

Q1 £16m

Q2 £103m

H1 £118m

Q3 £125m

Q4 £160m

H2 £385m

FT £400m

Hadn't appreciated Q4 studio's wouldn't move like last year. Adjusting to the 3% FY increase would move my estimate to £300m to £310m, so EPS of c6.0p

Still think the 3% is overly prudent, means a 8% drop YoY for the Quarter in studio's but I stand to be corrected

Also Q3 CY was £893m vs avg of Q1/2 of £820m, we don't know the costs but at 88% cost to income some of that £70m (potentially x2 if Q4 is flat YoY) will be incremental margin compared to H1

Also I thought you were saying between 0 to 1% not 0 to -1% so makes a bit more sense now.

Because Q4 is extremely cyclical, Last year Q4 vs Q3 jumped up over 40% in revenue. alot of costs will be based on a % of revenue but some of the costs wont be (EG Head Office support costs),

Last Year and H1 it Was £301k PBT at H2 is £372k. Im basically saying we will hit £240k in H2 this year (compared to £118k in H1, but off the back of leveraging overhead on the back of high revenue in H2)

Mmm, dodgy maths!

You wont get to a +% on total if you hit those numbers. Media & Studios is roughly 50/50 so (7)% + 3% would be a negative 2% at a total level.

Also I rounded my PBT down, it will be between £340m-£370m is my estimate

My stake in the Ground,

FY External Revenue +1%

Media (5)%

Studio +6%

PBT of £0.3m (55)%

EPS Circa 7.0p (adjusted EPS)

Dividend Maintained at 3.3p

Column format from copy and pasting isn't great TBF

Am i missing something? I get Q3 (qtr not YTD) advertising flat at £495m for the qtr vs last year. Whereas Q1 and Q2 were down 9-10%. My big issue is if we caught the same cyclical Q4 tailwinds as last year, as last year revenue was up circa 40% in Q4 vs Q3.

2022 2023

QTR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Media £545 £520 £496 £688 £495 £469 £495

Studios £458 £469 £460 £709 £457 £543 £516

Total £1,003 £989 £956 £1,397 £952 £1,012 £1,011

Internal -£169 -£144 -£112 -£192 -£176 -£149 -£118

External £834 £845 £844 £1,205 £776 £863 £893

Seq %

Media -5% -5% 39% -28% -5% 6%

Studios 2% -2% 54% -36% 19% -5%

External 1% 0% 43% -36% 11% 3%

YoY %

Media -9% -10% 0%

Studios 0% 16% 12%

External -7% 2% 6%

3bn of that is dividends, so can't really count that when comparing to market cap IMO as thats just FCF out of the business for really no benefit to the business. whereas the 7bn reduces the shares in circulation so at least "buys" them something for the cash outflow. then you have to deduct share option bonus's then the true accretive value to the SP is lower again.

Yep sold out today at 1.58, after buying in at 1.34. Think the 5% increase today is a bit weird, came in at analyst consensus for EPS / ROTE%, lower on Dividend per share, higher on buybacks but I'd say broadly in line. I guess the forward looking statements have been received well. In particular more cash going back to shareholders over 3 years and the ROTE% targets. The strategic stuff seems very slow winded. They are trying to reduce the impact of the investment bank poor ROTE% by growing other parts of the business, which carries more risk IMO, than a divestment of the investment bank. I personally prefer the way they are doing it but I would have thought the market wouldn't

Well it matters not, as Kay101 clearly was talking about going long or short on a share and and trading in a range of an 8% spread over 7 times a day. So cuckoo land

And apparently it trades in that range 7 times a day.

But using CFD's you could trade 50% profit. so you stake £1000 on the SP movements, over the day you trade say 20 times, could easily make £500 using CFD's, yes the potential to lose it all is very high, but theoretically you could stake £1000 of your bank roll daily and hope to make £500 day trading using CFD's. because your not buying a share at 64p your "buying" the movement of 1 or 2p

Not necessarily, depends if they are day trading on CFD's, which I guess the big guys will be.

There is zero chance she'll be allowed to buy right now. She will be signed up to non purchase/sale agreements as a result of the potential disposals / mergers. all of which she is privy to information that the market isn't so will be restricted by more than the usual restrictions in place

And lo and behold Jax is wrong 99% of the time

I guess from Vodafone perspective it makes sense. assuming the gearing % gets better or at least the same, eg some of the funds are used to paydown some of the debt in proportion.

As A. it makes the dividend more affordable in comparison to Earnings cover

B. if they don't then the cost of capital would increase, as debt is cheaper than equity and without buying back some of that equity it would become a bigger % of the WACC number and as such make it harder to generate returns in excess of the cost of capital

The market determines they should be an equivalent in price, otherwise traders can arbitrage off the difference