Member Info for Benhowell459

Some on here will know of the sad passing of the gentle giant, Doddie Weir, from the horrific MND.

Whilst reading a thoughtful obituary (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/63688926 ), there appeared parallels to the pharmaceutical industry and of course Sareum's quest to get a novel, and apparently game-changing therapeutic into the clinic.

"He was critical of government for, as he saw it, failing to deliver on promises made about the funding of MND research. He was questioning about medical experts not moving fast enough in trialling new drugs."

This reminds us once again that there are many diseases that still, in 2022, do not have successful treatment and that many pharmaceuticals are slow to trial new ways of addressing them, either through cautiousness or (perhaps cynically) as a way of preserving current income.

We are fighting against almost immovable objects in the industry. But we are on the verge of taking a major step into the clinic to make a difference. 1801 has immense potential in a wide variety of diseases. Frustrating as this administrative set back may be, let's remember that it's a setback to 1000s of unknowing individuals, who years down the line won't be able to try 1801/2 etc. due to delays. The setback also has implications for progress with SAR737. Granted, we are all here to make money, myself included. But I am most frustrated by a delay in getting a potentially incredibly effective set of therapeutics to people who will need them.

I remain patient here and keep my fingers crossed 2023 will be the year of the SAR.

Apologies Andrew - typing as waiting for the bus. I agree with you then. Thanks for the info re holders with 10m + shares. Very interesting. Would be curious to know the situation now. I would like to see a carefully managed release of RNS to help us getting back to 8p and beyond. And before anyone says we have to release news when we get it, I mean "marketed" and "promoted" in a way that will attract the right support. CBs communication and marketing needs to be spot on to get us to a level that he can then bargain hard for 15p+.

Andrew, a 10p buy out would give a MC of less than £100m - somewhere in the mid 90s fully diluted.

Therefore for anyone to become a millionaire, they would have to hold over 1% of the company currently. Yes, CB and several of the board would be millionaires but I doubt more than 5 VLTHs hold more than 1.2% each. Of the 1000s who bought into Colin's fabulous vision, put their money in and held through thick and thin, for only 5-10 to be royally rewarded is not a great payback. 15p+ imo would be just reward for the support shown.

That'll be when we announce 2MT....

... in November 2023.

I jest.

Losing patience at the moment but won't ever sell until the full picture is revealed. Frustrating as Quinton and the team can't realistically be this slow to put the assays together to form a resource estimate. Understandable why they're taking their time though with the copper price.

Please could one of you ask the obvious questions that absolutely need answers. Do they:

A) believe the appointment of PH has been a success;

B) believe that consolidation was worth the time, effort and fees?

C) if yes to either of the above, by what metric are they considered a success?

In my opinion, it beggars belief how poor those two decisions were. I remember saying at the time how consolidation would make not one blind bit of difference to a company's image. The assets wouldn't change, the MC wouldn't change. If someone wanted £10k of shares, they could have done so prior to consolidation. PH have done nothing as far as shareholders can see. BOD need to be held to account on these issues.

"Scars to prove it across several companies."

Probably not a great idea to plunge into the murky world of the Alternative Investment Market.

If you are going to risk it on AIM and contribute positively on here, at least try to provide correct information and support for your wishy washy viewpoints.

Who takes over ownership of the (combo) patents? CRUK presumably? Were all rights to IP etc. handed back today?

Trade price of 140.

Someone mentioned this morning they couldn't buy but then managed to get a couple thousand worth at.....140.

SP then went up to 160 by lunchtime. I reckon it was a big buy, not a big sell.

Ignore the message below. Phone and lse playing up at the same time. :(

Why

1801, if proven safe, could be life changing for millions. As Thoth once said, half of disease may be immune related. My only hope is 1801 (and 2) doesn't receive the SRA737 treatment and is prevented from getting to where it should be.
Fingers crossed Tim and John are holding out not only for a respectable offer but also an offer which allows them to ensure that 1801 is trialled in a wide variety of applications. The potential is huge. I'd hate to see it blocked and cast aside to gather dust.

Colin probably has a Sunday roast on a Tuesday.

Still tells everyone it will be on the Sunday though.

You would think there will be news in the morning if the midweek takeaway guys are recording a podcast with Colin tomorrow.

Otherwise they will be recording a podcast based on news released 5 weeks (!) ago, which would be rather pointless. Will be checking for that red dot at 7am tomorrow...

Flipper, my reply was in no way meant to criticise or belittle the content of your post. Rather to point out that that long shot 500/1 chance has come down significantly with all the different stages of work that have gone into BR.

I agree, the second half of that GLR podcast was interesting to say the least.

500/1 would surely be for a random target on an initial EM survey. Having had AA already find copper and request a JORC would presumably mean it was below 100/1 when we got our hands on it. First hole of 900m+ @0.3% probably brought it down to below 50/1. Every stage has derisked the project. Discovery of Ascot and 35m AU @ 0.92% probably below 30/1. These are all pie in the sky figures but there is no way Bushranger is still 500/1 to become a mine.

I would argue it's pretty much at the bottom - last time it hit around 3.2p then bounced back up to 4p or so. The charts support a buy at this price, the impending news (on all fronts) support a buy at this price. I would also be throwing any spare change at this - slight issue that I'm already well overweight in here and have no spare change. Ho hum.

To support the above, say we have 8m GBP income per year from Manica. That's a p/e of between 3 to 4. Granted, it's not confirmed yet and hasn't been reported but the potential here is enormous and the downside minimal. To deny that would be akin to sticking your fingers in your ears and ignoring what's being said.

A reminder that SRA737 has already had success in tests with niraparib as far back as 2018. Almost criminal it was put on the back burner.

https://aacrjournals.org/cancerres/article/78/13_Supplement/1853/626213/Abstract-1853-The-Chk1-inhibitor-SRA737-synergizes

"In short-term cell viability assays, the combination of SRA737 and niraparib elicited greater tumor cell death than either agent alone, as early as 12 hours after exposure to drug...

These findings support further investigation of SRA737 in combination with PARPi, including niraparib, in HR repair proficient cancers."

With the recent slide in the pound compared to the dollar, I had a little think about how this might impact us and a potential buyout. First, we are making more from Manica due to a more favourable exchange.

Second, I had a quick look at Kiwara's news releases way back in 2009 to see a) the exact exchange rate at the time of the buy out by First Quantum, b) how quickly significant news led to official confirmation of buyout and c) the size of the actual resource

In turn:
a) Unsurprisingly, the situation has changed significantly and in our favour.

The magic figure of $260m back then was worth 157.6m GBP. Now that 260m US is worth 225.75 GBP, a 43% markup on the exchange 13 years ago. We are not only getting more from our gold production, but should an international buy out take place, we may benefit from the weaker pound. (I don't see the pound getting any stronger in the near future, but there are many better placed to give their opinion on this).

b) Re timings and speed of sale. On 5 October 2009, Kiwara hired consultants to conduct a pre-feasibility study based on an inferred resource of 340million tonnes @ 0.78 (using a 0.55% cut off!). On 21 October 2009, Kiwara then announced the results of an infill programme (where have we heard this before!) with some pretty impressive shallow mineralisation (including 20.4m grading 0.94% Cu from 12.8m (!) and 45.6m also grading 0.94% Cu from 167.6m. This was one of 4 drills hitting impressive copper.

One month and two days later, the company was sold. The pre-feasibility study hadn’t been finished or published. From news of the buyout on 23 November 2009, it took around two months for Kiwara to cease trading on 28 January, the following year.

c) In terms of the resource, the Resource Estimation Report was published two months prior to a sale (https://investegate.co.uk/kiwara-plc--kiw-/rns/kalumbila-resource-update/200909020800013638Y/ )

In short, it was a big one. We now know it’s one of the world’s biggest mines but the indications were there in 2009. 1.45bn tonnes @ 0.76%. 3.76bn tonnes @ 0.37%.

Some musings: The stories are similar. Resource estimate published in September. Infill drilling programme. Kalumbila was evidently much bigger but copper price was (as far as I can see) just under 7k /tonne on the day the sale was announced (it had more than doubled from lows during the financial crisis – I remember Colin saying at the AGM that he sold at the right time!) We are, however, in a much better jurisdiction. As Colin said, things move quickly. I believe him when he says that AA might not want BR and there may well be other customers waiting in the wings. What will be interesting is something else he alluded to: the idea of being a 200m company. Does he want to sell off BR for a dividend and keep Xtract going or sell the whole of Xtract?

For info, I have used the link below which details all of Kiwara’s old RNSs. https://investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&wo

The calm before the storm. (I'm sure I've said this before). Björk is in town singing her favourite number.

Anyway, it's been a long while since the outstanding holes were completing. Bearing in mind we have the assays back from 53 and 54 (the final RC holes), it doesn't take a genius to work out 47, 48, 49 and 50 were more than likely not amazing. 53 and 54 were released 35 days ago. So which is it? Not great or holding back?

Intrigued by 49 though, why continue for 915m if it wasn't interesting.

Also need to hear back from the follow up to the 35m of gold we hit earlier, the drill iceberg described as "down the throat".

Thanks HBD. Much appreciated