Member Info for Benhowell459

Well played, NtM, well played! With a nice little 12% rise before lunch and a 4 day weekend ahead of us, the timing is almost perfect. Bring on 2p!

I am intrigued by Colin's comments about this little copper mine in the two interviews.

He seems to downplay it at times, claiming it's a tiny operation offering 18 months worth of operations but then at other times he says it's very promising and states they have 2.4km of strike.

Questions I would like answered:
1. He confirms to Zak that they completed drilling to the north. Will we see assays for that drilling or is that XRF style figures?
2. He confirms to the Roast chaps that it is already producing. When will this be reported?
3. The roasties try and pin him down on a forward projection for Kakuye, 5k tonnes /year for 10 years. His answer is "We're not building the future on Kakuye. It's one relatively small mine of many. We're looking at building a central plant ourselves."

Let's unpick those sentences. Colin avoided any kind of estimate about how big it is. "One of many"? Currently you have one mine in Zambia on the website - please stick to the question of how big it might be. It's not helpful to start talking of other acquisitions. As always, Colin's answers throw up more questions than answers. How long will this plant take to build? How much will it cost?

This news today was positive. Gold production is on the up. Kakuye sounds promising but we have literally no idea what's there apart from Colin saying there's 2.4km of strike. I do wish going forward we could interview him with closed questions and he can only answer with a yes or no or a figure.

Btw I think most on here are fed up with Colin's forward projections and Dani quoting Colin from yesteryear adds nothing to the conversation nor does it add credence to her outlandish claims.

The figures in the RNS today of 124% increase in Q4 and 56% increase in Q1 for Hard rock at Fair bride are confirmed figures from an RNS. Everything else is hot air. The increase is welcome, if not quite as much as some would like or predict.

On a positive note, hard rock from fair bride increased

124% from 35.31kg to 79.15kg in Q4 of 2022

56% from 79.15kg to 123.68kg in Q1 of 2023. (in the wet season!)

I think the increase is a positive, especially as it's still ramping up and was delayed for a while.

Another 50% increase in Q2 would be lovely.

Two things which obviously affect us hugely. Gold and copper prices. I've just posted on telegram and thought I'd share here.

1) gold price is over 2k an ounce. Looking very strong. Our income is directly impacted by a strong gold price. Can we advertise this strength, Colin?
2) Copper price based on supply and demand. Demand currently iffy due to manufacturing downturn in US and uncertainty in China. However, supply issues make for some interesting reading.

I looked into the LME stock reports on their website. They are free to access in excel format.

Current inventory around the world in LME warehouse: 66k tonnes.

3 months ago: 88k tonnes.

6 months ago: 136k tonnes

9 months ago: 136k tonnes

1 year ago: 96k tonnes

18 months ago: 212k tonnes

2 years ago: 150k tonnes

The signs of a dwindling supply are clear. Just need an upturn in demand and hey presto. Boom.

17 trades so far today which is actually quite a few. Multi millions been bought. Think we are getting ready to get back to the mid teens here.

Agree.

No posts for 3 days on telegrams and the same on here.

Everyone has taken their positions. We've been here for 3 years +. Manica has been working up to full capacity for almost as long as I can remember. Havieron will be in at full operational speed before Manica at this rate.

Colin keeps on banging on about the incoming upturn in copper price on twitter. Doesn't matter if you a) Don't make progress in your projects b) Don't give honest and accurate projections and estimations for your projects ("gift wrapped for AA by April '22!") c) Reduce the annual reporting of income from 4 times a year to bi-annually

Lots to be frustrated about here despite the incredibly favourable headwinds that could be coming our way. Could go very well indeed if Colin plays his cards right. My worry is his eyes are off the ball or his definition of "death by a thousand lashes" is different from mine. By my reckoning we're on about 750 already...

Let's not give them too much of a heads up about the grilling they will encounter - they might make it virtual.

Jokes aside, completely agree. The slide is unacceptable and not enough has been done to progress in a way that provides a return to loyal yet long suffering shareholders. Bob and Tim have 2 and a half months to prove their worth (in gold!)

Love the confidence HBD! Could be worth a packet in a couple of years!

Presumably there is a policy whereby price sensitive information is given to the company to release to the markets first prior to putting on a website.

I'd like to think we might get back there earlier than that, Andrew. But, you seem pretty accurate with your timelines, or rather Colin seems woefully inaccurate so you might be right.

Jokes aside, one thing in our favour is that this has the ability to move up sharpish on reasonable volume. We moved up from 2p to 8p on 200 (?) trades a day in less than a week in 2021. Slightly different scenario if we rise this time, in that the majority of shareholders are underwater, and I would wager mostly in the 3.5/4-6p zone. I.e. shares are in sticky hands, looking to recoup losses, rather than make a quick buck. Therefore, we could move up quickly as we go through the ranges from 1.5-2, then 2-3p, and onwards from there.

All of this is dependent on Colin giving us the news (possibly the hardest part of all this conjecture). All IMO. GLA and hope the weekend is pleasant.

p.s. Apologies NtM - will let you go ahead when people actually do need to be in this over the weekend ;)

Oh go on then...

Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend!

Good old compound interest. We'll be back at 6p just after Easter at this rate...

If a 15k BUY today at 14:44 was at 94p, then 35 minutes later a 13k buy would not have been at 91p.

The latter was almost certainly a sell. How you can claim that the second one is a buy is beyond me. If it is, I want to know the name of the broker!

I would argue we are slightly ahead as we have already submitted CTA in various countries (ignoring delays) - Chris Lang seems to know what he's doing judging by the article having overseen sunitinib and ensartinib. IE. He's got excellent business acumen and knows how to do deals. Unfortunately this seems to be what we are lacking right now.

On another note, Lang mentioned:
We have delivered what we believe is a best-in-class dual TYK2/JAK1 molecule and the team at Biohaven has the clinical development expertise to explore its utility in brain disorders.

I note the phrase "best in class" something we have used before to describe 1801. I really don't want SAR to get left behind and hope we have progress in terms of deal making for CHK1 in Q2 of this year. This will push our TYK2/JAK1s forward.

Wouldn't be surprised if we try and sell off Senala (Senegal), JV Bibemi and go alone at Ndom and the others.

There are options to finance progress here. Bob needs to start earning his wages!

Completely agree Seible.

In the past few years, he has provided good summaries of where we're at and it has attracted investors. Unfortunately his words and positivity hasn't (yet) led us anywhere (sp appreciation OR buyout) but time will tell. The last performance was so utterly dull that even I as a current investor with 500k shares (used to be worth a wodge of £!) was struggling to focus. Bleating on about ore concentration on your weekly/bi-weekly PR exercise and mentioning LITERALLY NOTHING else is an extremely poor use of your PR opportunities.

It's not a watershed moment, I feel. Colin HAS to confirm in the next week or two what on earth we have here. What kind of cash is Manica bringing in?

What is our timeline for Bushranger? Almost a year on from "tie a bow on it for AA", 2 years on from "we won't have the death of a thousand lashes", we actually need to see something here, apart from our broker account balance sinking further and further....

All gone quite here with a market cap of 2.79m

No positive RNS is moving anything in this sector at the moment.

When will this share stop sliding?

Progress on Kakuyu it seems. A nice diagram which might be interesting to iceberg etc. Eureka removed from the website completely. It seems Colin does just like the latest toy to play with and that it Kakuyu at the moment.

Big opportunity missed with the website update as Bushranger still has the same waffle it had 3 years ago. 71MT@0.44 etc etc. Nothing about recent developments. Still has the April 2020 presentation at the bottom for crying out loud.

If you are going to update the website, put new information on it! That the April 2020 presentation is still the most interesting and informative document about Bushranger is quite frankly pathetic.

Completely agree. Many positives from this update.

1. We have confirmation the BOD were working hard in the interim to pivot away from the stagnating mess that is the UK. They have analysed the options and submitted a new application, under a subsidiary of SAR, in a new jurisdiction. That isn't easy.
2. Oz is pro business. They welcome investment. That much is clear from their approach to mining especially.
3. Linked to number 2, R&D tax credits are a huge plus. It demonstrates the positive vibes around investment from outside.
4. Things are quicker in Oz. The MHRA are an absolute mess...which brings me onto point 5...

5. No one can argue this country is a great place to do business right now. Strikes, inflation and a government that claims to be pro-business but ultimately tanked the economy only months ago. We were going nowhere in the UK. GSK pointed out the same. If they couldn't make progress, then little old SAR are better off elsewhere.
6. No need for translations. Not a point to be taken lightly. The BOD can conduct business with people in their first language, minimising risk of things being misconstrued. Translations are costly are take time (every step of the way). I've worked in the industry and this kind of area is niche, hard to do and therefore more expensive to translate and easy to make errors. This is a big plus.

All in all, I'm glad we have made this choice. We are moving forward and have direction. Credit where credit's due. They've obviously been working hard on this so deserve a pat on the back. Fingers crossed it gets approved soon and the have locations etc. already in mind. Onwards and upwards.