Member Info for BenAlder

I am more than happy to be increasing our shareholding in Enerox, esp. after their recent arrgt. with US Vanadium to secure millions of litres of electrolyte p.a.

It is a great asset at a good price, but there are risks and it is naive to believe there will be no further dilution as they have moved the goalposts and plan to expand further. That could be a good thing, but we need to know how they are going to achieve this change, with all the assumptions, e.g. when do we see a return. I would like to see them getting MOU’s from potential customers for their end product and I would have expected that they would have already lined up customers for the start of the coal production, but that seems to not have happened as they’re talking of stockpiling coal now, but no mention of customers for washed coal either. All bumps in the road or something else?

That RNS the other day regarding SP movement. They blamed it on PI’s thinking there was going to be a fund raise, which ironically, was caused by a very bad interview by one or their own! And it is the source of my assumptions too. Up to that interview, everyone thought CGO would be in production and making sales! It seems now that all their focus has been on the former, because there seems to be no planning going on regarding sales or even what the product was going to be. Dirty coal, washed coal, coke? Did they make a plan? I get the impression this is all about adding value to the asset and selling it on quickly.

So to the naïve. Don’t believe everything you read in a RNS. “No fund raise planned. (today, as we are still in the process of figuring out WTF we are going to do!)” Time will tell!

I do want this company to succeed or be sold at a good price, but I have to call it as I see it. ATB!

Extract from RNS 12th Jan In ref to CLN conversion to shares–

“the Company no longer has sufficient headroom under the Listing Rules to issue all the shares to satisfy the conversion in full.

Following consultation with the six holders of the Convertible Loan instruments, the Company is pleased to report that all parties have unanimously agreed to extend the life of the instruments by a further six months with no additional charges or penalties. The revised date for mandatory conversion is therefore 4 July 2022. “

So a meeting will have to be called before summer to raise the share limit so the new shares can be issued to satisfy the CLN holders. This would also be required to issue any warrant shares too. Very surprised that was not anticipated at the recent AGM.

Don't forget the outstanding 3,200,000 broker warrants granted to Brandon Hill Capital in October 2020 during a capital raise. The warrants are exercisable at 5p and expire on 19 October 2023.

Warrants are drag on the SP as invariably they are sold down when they receive them.

What struck me about our man was how clueless he was. They have jumped from plan A to plan B, but all the important details are not known, so they have only an idea at the moment, after ****ing off a good customer too. The small kiln will never pay out enough after all costs to fund the 150,000t one. Has either been ordered yet? Add a least a year to production for plan B, and funds will be required. At least they are not going to throw money at the gold project. I dont believe they will take the long slow route of funding growth from this wee kiln. The probability is high that they will be looking for money soon. You may as well buy a big kiln now and forget the small one, if the market dictates it.

Thanks Floyd.

Informative, especially the vanadium market forecast by Terry Perles.

One of the interesting questions the battery manufacturers were asked was if the CO2 footprint of the vanadium was important and all three agreed it is, but not at a premium. The fact BMN is creating its own mini-grid becomes important in the sales context as well as on saving energy costs. The CO2 footprint could swing the balance of a deal for electrolyte/vanadium.

@ Uksteveg - I know, I did state that in my first post. I would assume less as volume is increasing and they are trying to reduce all costs across the company. Even $3 x 4M Kg = $12M/£8M for these costs seems high. I can’t face loads more numbers at the moment. Just say £6.7M leaving earnings of £20M for 2022. EPS 1.6 P/E of 5.7 at 9.10p.

That’s my final try. My conclusion is a SP cica 16p for 2022 and 32p for 2023 @ 5200MTV pa. Anyway, screw fundamentals, this is AIM. Rumour and sentiment rule.

A rising vanadium price cures all. I too am happy for a spike in price.

Thanks Faramog and sorry to everyone. The correct figures are:-
Vanchem – 1850 MTV @ profit of $7 Kg = 1850 x 1000 x 7 = $12.95M
Vametco – 2550 MTV @ profit $12 Kg = 2550 x 1000 x 12 = $30.6M - BMN share is 74% = $22.64m
Total $35.6M $-£ @0.75 = £26.7M
Total shares 1260,000,000 EPS = 2.12, current SP 9.1p P/E = 4.29
P/E of 5 to 10 is SP of 11.5 – 21p approx.

I am only using as a guide to current valuation. Sentiment and market action can distort that as we all know.
I did well to remember the $-£, which i usually forget! - Cheers, Ben.

This is how I see it. (At the moment!)
2022 Production & costs forecast –
Vametco – 1850 MTV @ cost $28 Kg
Vanchem – 2550 MTV @ cost $23 Kg
Assume Avg sales at current V price of $35 Kg for the year ahead.
Profit before tax and cost of sales etc.
Vametco – 1850 MTV @ profit of $7 Kg = 1850 x 1000 x 7 = $12.95M BMN share is 75% = $9.7M
Vanchem – 2550 MTV @ profit $12 Kg = 2550 x 1000 x 12 = $30.6M - 100% owned.
Total $40M $-£ @0.75 = £30M
Total shares 1260,000,000 EPS = 2.38, current SP 9.1p P/E = 3.82
P/E of 5 to 10 is SP of 12 – 24p

2023 should be about 50% higher. A stronger pound to dollar rate, a $ off costs, a $ on the price of V/Kg and higher production/sales volume, would see profits start to move quickly up. The P/E should rise with continued and consistent profits.

Much of this profit will be earmarked for continued maintenance/production improvements and VFRB expansion projects such as BELCO and Enerox, over the next couple of years, I imagine. There after they too should be contributing to income. BE is an enigma but should be paying its own way by then too, I hope.

My concerns are around costs of production and further expansion costs. Confident that the markets will consume all we produce at over $35 kg/V, but I want to see the overall cost of production below $22 Kg for next year. Risks are reducing. Confidence and trust are being built. This is not an instant multibagger, but a real growth story that will see the SP rise year by year because cash flow and profits will. I believe Duferco is selling in an orderly fashion so will keep SP progress tight for now. But WTFDIK, All the best!

Wrong to presume. BE may only be doing the project management or consultancy, to build up experience, contacts and reputation in Africa, with an eye to return at a later time to flog them a battery, so wait for the evidence.

Perhaps not jelly, but they do care about the business. Without a business, you do not have any share value. I am content that the board is tending to business rather than indulging needy ‘investors’. If you can’t accept the way communications are, take it as a red flag and sell, your whingeing will change nothing. I’ll judge the bod on the results of this expansion and the control of costs, and so will the market.

Extract from RNS Number : 6935W, Bushveld Minerals Limited, 27 April 2021

The Mustang Capital Raise, and the concurrent acquisition by Mustang of shares in the capital of VRFB-H, constitutes a reverse takeover under the Financial Conduct Authority's Listing Rules and will require the publication of a prospectus and readmission of Mustang to trading by no later than 31 December 2021.
In circumstances where the Mustang readmission does not take place by 31 December 2021, Bushveld Minerals has agreed to issue new ordinary shares in its capital to Mustang's noteholders (the "Backstop") in return for:

§ Mustang transferring to Bushveld Energy all of Mustang's shares in VRFB-H.

§ Mustang paying a fee to Bushveld Minerals of an amount equal to 5 per cent of the Mustang Capital Raise (including both principal and interest), to be satisfied by the issue of new ordinary shares in the capital of Mustang at a price of 20 pence per share (the "Backstop Fee"). The Backstop Fee is payable in the event of readmission not occurring by the aforesaid date or immediately prior to completion of readmission.

Certain of Mustang's noteholders have the discretion to elect not to receive new Bushveld Minerals shares and instead receive shares directly in the capital of VRFB-H.

Then there is the related Court Case related to VRFB-H. But looks like we will be issuing BMN shares for their shares and getting 5% @ 20p of MUST shares. So some more dilution, but I suspect other investors will take a slice and reduce the amount of shares we get and have to dilute, whilst holding Mustang shares and a bigger share of Enerox ultimately. Unless something happens pretty soon by Mustang.

FM liked Enerox/Cellcube enough to underwrite Mustang’s share, should they fail to complete in the acquisition. Money would be required to be raised to cover that, I imagine, but I would rather buy Cellcube than IES. Both probably the leaders outside of China. Working with Siemens, I see them landing something grid scale in Europe. Probably be able to float Cellcube for £250M on AIM with an order under its belt, lol.

Well if Duferco are selling, they are not breaking the SP. Hopefully a run of good news will lift us quickly.

I am as optimistic as ever and I feel the world is changing, more quickly than pre-covid, towards renewables for energy generation. I am still surprised that the vast majority of new solar and wind installations are not linked with batteries. Smaller projects are probably more limited in terms of finance to buy the extra efficiency that batteries add, but I think that it is the next logical and economic step for all new projects to consider. Vanadium is the prime candidate for scale at this time and will have its day, perhaps coupled with a Rolls Royce nuclear generator. I am anti-nuclear personally, but the world will never replace fossil fuels fast enough just with renewables. These new units being designed are smaller and safer than the big expensive white elephants that we have built in Britain. (De-commissioning costs!) Hydro dams have wrecked the eco systems in most areas that they have been built, and of course downstream, so are less popular. Other technologies are younger than VFRB’s. We will need a lot of everything but batteries that are non toxic and non flammable and recyclable, should be coupled to them. Countries around the world are going to want to show that they are doing their part, so money will be thrown at projects, and BMN only need to get one or two of these and its off to the races! Cellcube is the ace in the hole, I believe.

Looks like BMN will be ready to service the market holding all the aces! ATB!

Duferco receive their shares on Mon 8th Nov. Be interesting to see a holding RNS from them to see if they did sell all of their first batch of shares. This will indicate their likely course of action with this tranche. It is possible that they have lined up a buyer for these shares already and hence the discarding of the orderly disposal clause. It would present an opportunity for an investor to get on board at a damn good price, and that may even attract more II’s creating a decent SP rally. I live in hope, but surely some big boys are looking at this with interest?

A quant fund is an investment fund whose securities are chosen based on numerical data compiled through quantitative analysis. - wikipedia

Buying a brownfield site was always a worry for me. I am a lot happier that they recognised the problem early, recruited an expert and have got the finance to fix it and expand it at the same time. We are still in the middle of this upgrade. It worked out a cheaper deal than a new plant and less dilution overall, so no mismanagement here IMO.

You are starting to sound desperate. It's a bit late in the day to be complaining now, 2 years after the deal!

Those costs include the refurbishment spend for the period too, the ongoing maintenance.

By the summer most of the work will be completed and that additional cost will be less, coupled with lower costs derived by volume. If costs are not down by then I'll admit concern.

Waiting on the finance from the same people who partnered (financed) us on the E-Plant.

@ Mogwhy. Well I agree that the SP has been disappointing and stressful at times, but I have faith that the company is actually in an improved and improving position now, and only time is the variable factor here. So you have decisions to make regarding your investment here. I am fortunate enough to be able to wait a few years, and it is better here than in the bank as far as I’m concerned, but no guarantee.

So Duferco may have sold all their shares. I think that they did as there was constant selling from that time. So will they sell again? I think they will, who knows, but this is worst case scenario and although a drag on the SP, it is relatively short term until SP reflects the actual performance of the company, and not a disaster as is being made out. So Mogwhy is it seems is suggesting we all sell now and buy back cheaper later, but can you guarantee that the SP won’t run away on some good news, or the fact that the valuation is so low that an II or PI’s is prepared to look a year down the line to reap a superior return based on what is happening on the ground now and not in the imagination of a fear spreading doomster with suspicious motives. Correct me if I have misinterpreted you. Your long term outlook for the company seems very short term.