Member Info for BenAlder

Keep banging on Sammy! I agree and you express it so well. ATB!

Costs at Vanchem will come down after the big kiln is fired up and running at capacity. Costs at Vametco can be improved, but they wanted to spend the money to improve Vanchem first. The current year forecast is $23 per Kg at Vametco, so expect that, or less, for both plants next year. However, costs will rise over the next year for everything I expect, but each plant should be around say $25 Kg + $5 per Kg for other costs. $30 total costs per Kg V. At least I think it is a fair assumption.

Next year should see us producing 5200T and V prices could be higher too. Say avg $60 Kg V. If we make $30 profit per kg, that would equate to £100M pretax profit and EPS of about 8p. 80p SP at a P/E of 10.

So the question is really about how long we may enjoy high vanadium pricing for? Six months to a decade? It not just the 17% vanadium lost from Russia, but a lot of steel exports too. That means the steel will be replaced using non-Russian V. More pressure on demand that we already expect to rise. This is all above the expected demand for VFRB’s that will surely accelerate now too, because of a rapid race to replace carbon fuels. Vanadium is a strategic mineral.

I think V price will continue it’s spike to new highs, as a lot of metals are doing at the moment. How long will the price stay this high, and how low will it eventually settle back to and when? Crystal Balls and Mystic Megs?

Neville Registrars, via their “contact us” website facility - I think.

Sorry, I don't know Neo. If you keep reading down, you will find something, or one of the other guys here will help when they read your message.

The registrars will issue the CGO shares to everyone on the company register. If you are holding thru a nominee account such as HL, Halifax, etc, you should have no worries. If you have a certificate (either SBLM or CGH), then you should make sure the registrars have your correct address.

The reason, IMO, for the 12mth thing, is so that the uncontactable shareholders are absorbed so as to pay the directors salaries for a few more years, or perhaps a winding up of the business to return cash to shareholders within the next couple of years. Still own Nimba, so that has to have value. Sell that and return all cash and close down the business?

Oh and I think this is a Share in specie and not a Dividend in specie. A transfer of ownership of shares rather than a payout.

I just hope to get my shares before the start of April!

@Diamond - From 21/04/2021 RNS
In circumstances where the Mustang readmission does not take place by 31 December 2021, Bushveld Minerals has agreed to issue new ordinary shares in its capital to Mustang's noteholders (the "Backstop") in return for:

§ Mustang transferring to Bushveld Energy all of Mustang's shares in VRFB-H.

§ Mustang paying a fee to Bushveld Minerals of an amount equal to 5 per cent of the Mustang Capital Raise (including both principal and interest), to be satisfied by the issue of new ordinary shares in the capital of Mustang at a price of 20 pence per share (the "Backstop Fee"). The Backstop Fee is payable in the event of readmission not occurring by the aforesaid date or immediately prior to completion of readmission.

Certain of Mustang's noteholders have the discretion to elect not to receive new Bushveld Minerals shares and instead receive shares directly in the capital of VRFB-H.

They are expected to pay in shares, but I could see Mustang preferring cash so they can get on with their next RTO. BMN may waive their fees.

I can’t understand why anyone would want to invest in Mustang after it resumes trading, (if it happens at all?). Buy BMN and you get a similar exposure to Enerox/Cellcube, (less MN’s 15% of BE), but with more upside potential. Buy MUST and you own a third of a share in half a company, and exposed to a higher risk of dilution. For me, this would only have worked for Mustang if they got at least a significant direct share of EHL. It was a good deal for BMN, if only to delay things, so they could come up with the money with Acacia, to maintain equal control with Garnet. I think Mustang will be out of the picture and BMN will be issuing shares to cover their CLN’s next week, unless Fortune delays them long enough to repay them from petty cash. lol.

No, it’s quite normal for this company, but we are waiting for good news on multiple fronts, so should keep adding momentum when they come.

Up to last week, my concerns were about costs. Almost immaterial now with the price of V.

I read it mate, or at latest the first 75% and skimmed the rest. Heavy but enlightening. Initially they were not happy, in an email, but it is nit picking. They both retain 50% share and control, so nothing is going to be forced down the others throat.

Both fighting for control or share holding, suggests to me the company is worth it, despite the judge referring to Cellcube's books as nothing great. They are the VFRB leaders todate. Good list of projects and partners, but just like IES recently, need investment to handle large scale projects. Which are romping over the horizon, as we speak!

And it is just icing, not the main game! ATB!

It wont be one technology over all. It will be a mix, small scale, large scale. Hydro, nuclear, etc. But there is going to be demand, that is for sure.

from the same article -
"California’s energy sector is likely to be contracting for a big mix of energy storage technologies in the coming years, he said. Another CCA, Central Coast Community Energy (CCCE) has signed contracts with three vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) projects totalling 226MWh, expected to come online in 2026."

Just so you get the 'whole' picture.

What is your point? The picture?

Or Siemens?

I don’t think so Alfa. Garnet expressed a dislike of them and preferred a USA stock listing. They still have 50% control, so would block that. A USA SPAC would be good, as they will get a better valuation over there. It looks as if they have some projects coming up over in USA (ref to electrolyte deal). So can promote off the back of that. Yanks will love it. Stay the **** away from AIM! Garnet and BMN only have to give up 20-30% each, giving 40-60% share to the SPAC. TBH, there is a strong chance that it goes to private hands.

Both party’s quite sneaky and Garnet out manoeuvred in trying to weaken BMN’s hold on EHL. As a result, Cellcube/Enerox is well funded. I wonder if they will now reconsider an IPO for EHL or Enerox. Going forward they surely need to get that 3rd independent shareholder in, as originally proposed, to keep the focus and the peace. Pineapple Power could still be in the wings. Whatever happens, I’m sure Fortune will make another healthy return on this investment, just like IES.

@ Paul – At least you justified your guess, and by my rough calcs, not unreasonable at all.

2022 Production & costs forecast –
Total 4400 MTV
Vanchem – 1850 MTV @ cost $28 Kg
Vametco – 2550 MTV @ cost $23 Kg
Assume Avg sales at current V price of $50 Kg for the year ahead.
Vanchem – 1850 MTV @ profit of $(50-28) 22 Kg = 1850 x 1000 x 22 = $40.7M BMN share is 100%
Vametco – 2550 MTV @ profit $(50-23) 27 Kg = 2550 x 1000 x 27 = $68.85M BMN share is 74% = 51M
Total Profit before tax and cost of sales etc. = $ 92M
Less say $5 per kg sales and other costs = 4400 x 1000 x 5 = $22M
= $70M x 0.75 to convert to £ = £52.5M Earnings before tax.
Total shares 1260,000,000 EPS = 4.17, current SP 13p P/E = 3.1
P/E of 5 - 10 = 20p - 40p SP
This is up from my last guestimate of £20m earnings at $35 kg and of SP 8 - 16p I did in January on the same basis.
5000+MTV @ $60 Kg V and lower costs next year?

The need for cheap iron ore/steel to replace the Russian supply could well provide the financial incentive. S.A. has so much potential to build a steel industry to replace Russia. SA Govt. also needs to assist in some fashion to encourage development it so badly needs. Early days yet, but demonstrates the potential for future growth.

The iron comes into play if this becomes the new political geography. So more likely as more partners possible too.

Germany is ditching reliance on Russian gas as fast as possible. Burning more coal, re-commissioning nuclear and looking at renewables. They will have to really focus on the latter as they are probably the dirty man of Europe in terms of CO2 pollution, from burning large quantities of lignite. The rest of Europe is in a similar position. Price will be less of an issue.

So this conflict will accelerate the uptake of renewables, in all its forms, including VFRBs. Probably shaved 5 years off what we were expecting before. This coupled in with Sammy’s point about increased use from defence spending, and if China plays ball with sanctions, suggests that V prices are not going to be less than what they are now, for a considerable amount of time, and potentially much higher for much longer than at any previous time.

All this will also accelerate BMN’s timelines to profits too. £1 in now possible in a shorter time frame than I had previously imagined (if at all, tbh). Further expansion to capacity will be done through profits and debt if necessary. The waiting is nearly over Rodders!

Irrelevant. Company should concentrate on business, stick to the laws and not cater to woke fannies.