Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Consensus eps for this year is 177p approx but given these revenue numbers that figure has likely been achieved after 3 quarters not 4! Hence for the full year 220p should be attainable, maybe more, in spite of quite low volatility this year. One wonders what planet these earlier estimates were devised. One also wonders what planet the pe of under 7 comes from especially as about a quarter of the market cap is the net liquidity in the company, which is yielding close to zero. It is rather amazing when one looks at USA sky high ratings in the sector that no bid has been launched for Plus.
Replying to Texas Pete it does not bode well for the jobs of the analysts who have consistently had stupidly low estimates. What planet are they on? It is just the planet that takes management guidance not common sense.
We must be on a per of only seven or less for this year and taking the cash out of the equation the business must be valued at way less than this. Incredible.
Still one of the lowest rated share. This deal is only a bit over one per cent of market capitalisation but looks sensible. The huge cash pile on the plus balance sheet is effectively being valued at about zero as it earns nothing much and the group pe is only single figures. Hence spending it on an acquisition is highly likely to improve earnings and hopefully valuation.
Finally an analyst has come up with a reasonably serious, still probably way too low, estimate for this year of around 200p per share. Good heavens this has taken so long. It is having quite an effect on the price. Can fund managers not see through broker estimates and take their own view on outcomes?!
How on earth can management guide for a full year result which is only a bit over twice the first quarter result. This is why the share price is not going up today as it should do. The management had been cautious before but this is crazy to keep consensus so low.
Revenues from spreads are actually quite similar q1 2020 and q1 2021 and q4 2020. The big swing factor is on the book where it goes from a huge profit for plus in q1 2020 to a small 2021. Worth analysing. Plus is so much lower rated than ig it looks crazily low.
Annualised eps of around 4 dollars on first quarter, not necessarily an exceptional quarter. That is about 3 pounds per share for the full year. So on first quarter annualised earnings a pe of 5 and that does not take account of the effect of valuing the cash mountain separately. If you value the cash at par and the operating earnings separately the pe using first quarter eps annualised drops to around 4. Does anyone know a cheaper share?!
I think we are now reaching breaking point where the low analyst consensus for 2021 that has held back the share price will finally be shown up as way too cautious. The cmc report highlights a company forecast for earnings that is miles above consensus. I just wish the analysts would wake up.
They have been doing this for ages almost every day as it enhances earnings per share massively. I find it surprising they do not do more when they arduous lowly rated. The main problem holding back the share price in my view is that the consensus broker estimates are just far too low. Does anyone know of a cheaper share with net cash and a market cap over 1 billion pounds? It is not easy to find one.
I am not at all excited by 1.7 per cent and think it is going higher. I would not touch those bonds. I am just trying to pinpoint the core reason why itm has gone down so much recently. It is that investors temporarily prefer shares that yield more than the so called risk free rate.
I meant not talked about on this board as has led to a collapse in the share price. I suspect the trend to get into shares with more sensitivity to an immediate economic recovery and with yields more than us govt bonds will continue at expense of longer earnings streams on way higher valuations. I am not sure what is going to reverse that trend just now.
Astonishing that no one is talking about the surge in US bond yields as this is what has driven the share price down so much. Put simply one surely has to downgrade the value of a long term uncertainincome steam when you can get 1.7 per cent from a US 10 year bond. In addition it looks likely with money printing and a strong economy this yield is going even higher.
I have commented on the plus 500 board as well but for ages has it not been obvious that brokers have got estimates on the sector way too low given the retail trading boom. It is all a bit ridiculous.
Totally agree to concentrate on organic growth and buying back shares. Look what happened to ig when they waded into an American acquisition. American retail brokers are so highly rated they ought to consider buying plus, not the other way around. They could massively enhance their earnings per share whereas we would dilute ours unless we lose our cash pile, which is better used buying out own cheap shares.
Perhaps more important is that the volatility induced by inflation worries is likely to be excellent for volumes. The return on cash is likely to remain very low and not that material. However, as I have said before the market is missing a trick with about one third of the market cap in cash. If you strip the cash out at par and value the business on a pe it is clear that the consensus pe drops dramatically on this sum of the parts. Of course it is already very low in any case but this approach, not unreasonable with all but zero return on cash, makes the pe even lower and by some margin.
I have mentioned this before but around one third of the market cap is in cash. Valuing this cash on a pe of 10 or thereabouts effectively values the cash at nothing because there is virtually no return on cash. Cannacord is so casual it has not worked this out. If you value the cash at par and take it out of the equation the historic pe falls to about 3! Clearly earnings may fall quite a bit this year but these stats do show the potential. I have rarely seen such an idiotic note as the Cannacord one. Luckily Liberium is a bit more sensible though still very cautious.