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Brom,
Mike Macfarlane experienced - see
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mimcfarlane/.
Think we have the right man at helm of BEX -
Disappointing few weeks as far as SP has gone, but as posted in a previous note, the info we have gained is invaluable, just a minor setback on long road to next year, lot"she of news to come, still a great Company DW will deliver it will just take a bit more time,
I still believe, don't plan trading will buy more when I can.
GLA
BB32
Evening all,
Again the reduction in the flow rate due to changes to flow of N2 has brought the usual conspiracies and rubbish, the fact LSE Site down has not helped, glad to see that some are posting delay so what !
If you have followed this venture you will have seen that the main players are doing things correctly, taking their time and learning as much as they can from this unique 1 of a kind play, Paul B. Did say if it doesn't flow immediately it will, they might have to tweak it a bit, but ultimately it will flow. Dave stuck to his 50/50 COS and is playing this with a straight bat ( to pinch a cricketing term ) all recent announcements have been factual.
By taking time and meticulously recording every step of the way, the ultimate prize becomes one step nearer - general consensus is that most want one of the big boys to step in (early ) and buy us out , no one will do so without us proving what we have tried and done, in my opinion the longer it takes the better information we have.
The 30% figure quoted for return of frac water was a best guess by industry for most wells, we know as Paul said this is different so it may take a higher figure before the reservoir helps and kicks in, so we may have some more time to wait, however we have now seen an increase since Sept of hydrocarbons and have now seen a change from C6 to C6 + types , this in my opinion is one of the key clues that this is going to flow and we should see an impressive re-rating soon.
If it goes down tonight in Aus and here in Uk tomorrow it would be a Great chance to buy some more at a nice low price. Yes we all expected it to be higher - Remember 3D, probable Farm Out and Yukon announcements to come this year.
Final thought - everyone thought that Paul B was off his rocker when he persuaded Burlington Resources and Conoco that the Eagle Ford could be fracked and to buy up a large sweet spot ( one of Cop's most profitable )
BB32
Good day all, Now the insanity of last weeks posters has gone, thought I would post my thoughts - to pinch a mantra from the Oil Company I worked for " PSI or Personal Safety Involvement" and change the wording to reflect my thoughts on this Share. Q1. How can you and others get hurt ? Obviously can lose money! Q2.What type of Accident ? Partial loss of money ! Loss of all money ! Delays to being able to sell if money is needed. Q3.How can you and others avoid getting hurt ? Carry out extensive research, read everything about Oil, drilling, Alaska, the Company, the Board, every announcement, every operations update, read about fracking, what happens, read about and understand terminology, understand process of recovery of frac water, understand what N2 lift is , how it works etc. Only invest what you are prepared to lose, Q4. What if something unexpected happens? Don't panic, research is the key, if things happen there are always ways to overcome them, have faith if you have invested because you have researched properly and you believe in the final outcome stay long - the worst thing that could happen is that you lose all the money invested, and if you only invest what you are prepared to lose then that is what was meant to be, no point blaming someone else.... Q5. what have you done to prevent you and your workmates (in this case family and friends who you suggested to invest in 88e) from getting hurt? Again research, and taking the opportunity to buy more on the dips to lower your average , Don't ever set a stop loss on a speculative share whilst in a news period, Just a bit of fun for the other Oilers invested here.... GLA BB32
Just posted excellent thoughts; "Picking this apart a little for interests sake, the mathematicaly infered flow rate of frack water is in the range 280 to 400 barrels/day. It may start higher and finish lower than this range, as it is an average over up to 14 days As stated in the update, based on modelling of the reservoir pressure and fracture conductivity. So based on inputs of pressure and conductivity, that 88e is in a good position to accurately predict, the modelling shows the 4000 barrels will flow within 14 days maximum. For the frack fluid to flow to the wellbore, where gas lift will assist it to the surface, it is going to take pressure drive from the reservoir. We know the pressure drive is there at ~9000 psi in the pores of the rock. After the 14 days it is anticipated that this will enable the hydrocarbons in the reservoir to flow naturally to surface at a representative rate.So the question is will the hydrocarbon flow be lower than the frack fluid flow. The knowns are 1) It is a super critical fluid, which means it has the flow properties of a gas and the disolving properties of a liquid. So much superior flow attributes to liquid/frack fluid 2) A gas will expand when there is a pressure drop. So occupies more space for the same quantity, which will create back pressure reducing flow 3) This supercritical fluid is expected to yield 70% liquid hydrocarbons/oil when it cools after leaving the reservoir I am neither brave or smart enough to predict the degree 1 and 2 will balance out, Paul Basinski certainly was. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180529/pdf/43vd3qv49bt91z.pdf The flow testing program has been designed to utilize nitrogen lift to assist the removal of up to an additional 4,000 barrels of fluid from the HRZ reservoir. It is anticipated that this will enable the hydrocarbons in the reservoir to flow naturally to surface at a representative rate. Based on modelling of the reservoir pressure and fracture conductivity, this is estimated to take 10-14 days. The well will then continue to be flowed back to ascertain drawdown pressure and decline rate." BB32
Thanks for comment Reaper, at least today's messages and questions have been better than the c..p from yesterday, I cannot believe that people on this board behave worse than children in the playground... With regard to what this is, I don't understand why everyone has not used the Internet to at least find out about our neighbours, what they do, how much money they have, what their yearly plans are, so much to read, so much to find out , very informative, who might be able to afford to buy us etc.... Perhaps it is because I worked in the Oil & Gas industry that I follow, but I wouldn't invest my money If I did not research as much as I can. Some of the previous questions on this board over the last couple of years have been unbelievable - presumably people just investing with a pin or because we were on top 10 and people taking a punt without knowing about the industry. Well, the day has arrived, what will the announcement tonight bring? Have we already started the frac water recovery ? If so how much have we recovered, have we seen hydrocarbons yet ? It becomes interesting now, lots of movement in the share price to come, ups and downs - remember the SP went down before they announced success of Ice1, then look what happened, here's hoping this flows, and flows well. GLA BB32
Follow up to previous post, if interested http://www.dividend.com/how-to-invest/where-are-conocophillips-and-phillips-66-now-cop-psx/ BB32
Gumbo, You've got this totally wrong - ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66 are two totally separate Companies - ConocoPhillips split into 2 upstream and downstream - all ConocoPhillips shareholders got 1 share for every 2 shares held in the new Company (PSX ) in 2012 BB32
Agree, no-one knows but . https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RW7W-OKZBsw Would be a nice thought.. It is possible , we just need the N2 to lift all the frac water out and get very positive flow rates, this journey is continuing on Monday on it's next leg - here's hoping onwards and upwards. GLA BB32
Nutsy, Don't forget we are a joint venture and approx 37% of whatever price would go to Burgandy Exploration, then what is left would be divided by the 5.5Bn shares (don't forget this would probably increase due to number of options out there! ..). For all new possible investors remember don't get carried away with big money talk.... I am not trying to talk this down, the potential is there , but we have a fair way to go yet before we get bought out, the next step of this journey starts on Monday... You have to be in it to win it, when we see the flow rates, hear about the 3D, find out about Farm out ( s) , find out what is planned for Yukon, see the ice roads being built see success from 2 conventional drills in Jan and March, see whether we are successful with a horizontal Ice2 -Ice3 ..then we may have got the SP up considerably and possibly then sell out. People need to understand it doesn't just happen overnight. GLA BB32
Neversatisfied, Evening- I believe there is a relationship but as to what it is who knows- I am sure Paul would of been able to answer, but would we understand? By looking at a few articles - such as https://ihsmarkit.com/pdf/production-data-analysis-future-paper_227378110913049832.pdf It left me cold... The phrase that summed it up seemed to be - "The most challenging aspects of this work include the data review stages � the "art" of distinguishing reservoir signature from artifacts is not a novice-level task, the analyst must focus on a comprehensive review of the data, not simply an immediate, best fit exercise." We would not know enough details of the variables, we would need to know the flow rates and then a shed load of measurements along the way- but I assume that each well would largely be unique ? Perhaps Garrym may be able to shed more light? BB32
Morning Phrontist, Tend to agree with you, as oil moves towards $100 when we proove what we have , we could well become hot property, Today is the day said yesterday �2.95p a share - well it is possible but to achieve that with the split with BEX and number of shares 88e has and with more options to further dilute the buy out offer would need to be above �26bn this would put acreage above Permian top price of $60,000 an acre - that was with high producing wells already pumping.. As nice as it is to dream about that, little too far beyond hopes that it would happen this year - we might get to $80 oil by end of year, we may well have above 100 BOPD from Ice2 we may well have farmed out conventional, which could provide funds to do a lateral Ice3 , but Conventional wells 1 and 2 need to be drilled Jan & March , and we need to see what Yukon brings us, I still think that it will be 2019 before we see a sale . I do agree that we may get some low ball offers that DW will have to fend off or put to a vote, and then unfortunately as most of people on here profess they know nothing about oil, the fear is we could get sold for a lot less than we should do. On a personal view I hope you and TDID are right. ( will give me a few tax problems as only 65% of my shares are in ISA and rest is in SIPP and with �1m allowance rules I will have to see tax advisors) Word of caution - to all new investors - read,read ,read some more and then invest what you can afford to lose nothing is guaranteed. GLA BB32
Goody, Wish you well with an answer from Dave, this is one of only a few where the main man replies to every e-mail quickly, nut he is also very proffesional and follows rules 100%. As the answer could be price sensitive , he will not be able to answer and you will probably get the classic comments such " Unless formally announced by the company, we don�t comment on business development activity,� Still a reasonable guess as to who it could be , the word China has been used for a while, add to that Chinese willingness to join in with LNG production,pipelines etc in Alaska, you could be correct, having said that Sinopec are more into refining than drilling. We will all know soon enough, this has to flow first, which I believe it will and more than the 80 - 100 barrels suggested BB32
Morning all, great week since update, this is only going 1 way, Markets trying to create mischief, showing 0.025 to sell on here yet last sale at 10.08 was 0.0262 and last buy at 10.10 was 0.0268 Don't get caught out. Dave adding pics makes this real on update, think we may get more photo's next week BB32
Interesting article - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4176664-revaluation-alaskan-gas-assets?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget Could be another reason why Dave moved earlier this year..... BB32
Brom, Mikemike, Short answer from article I posted was - " Poland was a disaster because of the lack of seal around the shale zone. Polish shales are plastic and difficult to fracture and, in some cases, have clays that swells upon encountering water, impeding flows." Still good to go back through previous news articles and Q + A's like Dazzle reminds us ( well done Daz !) Just great to remind yourself why we are invested when things are slow or SP dips, Mickey has the right answer " no-one is taking his shares away" We are a few weeks away from finding out how great Paul was BB32
Garrym, Reasons given re failure of shale fracking in Poland - in article May 2015 , giving history of 88e and Paul, http://www.energynewsbulletin.net/news-archive/news/1097205/88-pins-hopes-on-eagle-ford-replica BB32