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Think we could have an update tonight,
Dave has typically done these on a Monday Night / Tuesday Morning so here's hoping, we need to see the SP start to rise before we get confirmation of Farm out before Xmas ( again hopeful this will happen )
BB32
128064,
Seriously way off the mark, an offer that low would not even be considered, would be totally laughed at , and I think you know that.
Not sure of your motives at moment, slagging off Dave in last few days, suggesting Duster etc.
It would appear with your comments this is only a double your money gamble for you, than a real investment, but each to their own I suppose.
There is real money to be made here.
Take possible conventional oil 2bn x 30% as farm out = 600m Barrels at say just $5 Profit (minimum) a barrel =$3bn
Don't forget still 74% of area still to have 3D seismic
Crazy talk of such ridiculously low buy out
BB32
Red,
Great sentiment .. My belief was based on Paul ( RIP) and when I too met Dave.. I have through my working life been able to suss out people and I believe quite accurately get the real feel of the person within minutes
I haven't been wrong yet - hopefully I won't be this time,
I believe Dave is a very Professional person with Integrity - he certainly is not just playing the game for his salary and perks as various posters have slandered him on this bulletin board.
Why is it people who have lost money blame everyone but themselves for investing ( no I should say Gambling !)
I believe we are about to see how well Dave has been trying in the next few months...
BB32
Des, yes that is the quoted chance of success, but just look at the facts of all conventional drills in area -- I am assuming with modern 3D that there is a much higher chance of success , no MD of any Company is going to say 100% definitely we will succeed.
My thoughts and opinion only - I believe we will be successful and I am prepared to take that risk.....
What's that saying " when others are fearful! "
BB32
Thoughts on Yukon-
Dave really hasn't shown his hand with this play yet, we are still waiting final 3D info but currently suggesting 90m Barrels - also possibility of an extra parcel of land at auction, must be interesting 3D info for Dave to go for it--
Again we can use the same sort of calculation as Winx with success of drill 100% of 90m or more x $5 or $10.
Again substantial increase in value to Cap of Company and share price also going up...
Bring on the news Dave- Operations update due before long ......
Success with Farm out, success with drilling Winx, success with drilling Yukon and successfully proving Unconventional can seriously increase value of Company and Dave will have succeded in creaming the curve..
I am still positive that this will happen - I still hope to hold all my shares till we are sold off, but maybe when the price is right, I may take out my Initial investment ( the sensible side of me - keeps reminding me that this is the right thing to do !) I do know that this will not happen immediately may take another year or two , but hey....
Anyway we have to proove it first, like many I am down on my investment, but not really concerned, as the possibilities here are worth it..in my opinion.
BB32
Thoughts on success of Winx -
We have 36% of possibly 400 Million barrels of Oil - success and proof could mean that each Barrel is worth $5 to $10 so
400m x 36% = 144m x $5 = $720,000,000 or approx £565m which is roughly 9.5 times the current market capitalisation of 88e
At $10 a barrel well you can all work that out.
I think the share price with success will be a lot higher than it is at the moment..
If the Price of Oil gets nearer $80 by end Feb profit per barrel will be more.....
Loads of potential with this Company - and that is reality, let's hope that this works and we successfully drill Winx.
We would then find all the nay Sayers and doom monger so will suddenly change their minds and be the biggest supporters telling us all how successful they were , and will say they had Xmillion shares even if they had not bought any.. There will still be the sad " Neil's " of this world moaning that they shouldn't have sold!
Some days this board is better than watching the Soaps, any psychiatrists out there will love this site ...
Thoughts of Yukon to follow.
BB32
Red,
Fully understand your comment, this is a very frustrating board at times with the personal abuse, as has been said , sometimes easier to ignore ( no matter how difficult it seems ) worst traits of all men and women is shown on here when people who have invested ( or should I say gambled ) without fully understanding how long oil exploration and Company building can take , and they don't get their instant gamble and riches , this takes years not days / weeks as most seem to say, I have been on this site now since April 2016 and said that it would be April 2019 before we really moved on up, this could still be the right target date, if everything had gone perfectly.
If IW2 had flowed - wow , but the info we have got from it , still gives us a good hand to play, ( was really an outside chance that 1st try was going to work ... Look at how many times Eagle Ford was tried until Paul (RIP ) successfully achieved it for Burlington & Conoco.
We also, now thanks to Dave have finalised 3D to the west indicating that we could be sat on one of the largest on Shore fields in recent years - this will attract a farm in partner, we have also reduced our risk by having 2 other plays in Winx and Yukon-
My time line is probably now April 2020
The farm in should proove up the 2 pre planned conventional drills and complete 3D over the whole area ( great Potential to the East of our area.. This could still get to more than 10Bn barrels when all prooven , it certainly appears to have the potential. And that is what we have invested in the potential , not the guaranteed certainty - we have invested in a highly speculative investment ( people forget ! ).
We should also then be in a position to try IW3 as a lateral if Dave wants to go down that route although he has said data room for unconventional will open in Feb.
Could we get a cheeky farm in for the whole area Conventional and unconventional ?
I think if I was a major I would be more interested in the whole thing so that Unconventional could be fracked from same well as conventional ? Is that a possibility ?with long reach drilling - probably .. And I would probably sell up my Uk assets for 3bn to pay for it. Now wouldn't that be nice...
Here's hoping.
Posting my thoughts on Winx in next post...
BB32
This is getting boring listening to the petty squabbles on here the last few days - everyone needs to think a little and get real....
Whilst it is disappointing where the Share price of 88 is today- just look where we are
For several months the price of oil has been going down - for example on 9th Oct Brent was $84.2 today it is $60.284
28.41% down
The share price of all the oil majors have also dropped - so the oil price does matter!
ConocoPhillips (everyone's favourite Company in Alaska) share price on 9th Oct was $79.4 today the price is $64.7 19.5% down
88e was at 1p on 9th Oct today we are at 0.95p so 5% down WHY ARE PEOPLE SEEMINGLY PANICKING?
It has been mentioned that OSH did a deal when oil was around $40 imagine what it would have cost them at $100 + oil as it had been a few years earlier.
Dave has played a totally straight bat, he has said he is trying to get a farm out, he has said he was hoping to do this before the end of the year, well it's not the end of the year yet.... Why can't we all wait and see..
The more exploration going on around us , potentially makes our acreage more likeable to the big boys, with the information that we have in the data room someone will agree a deal ( at $100+ ) we would be more interesting but as oil price is cyclical , the majors factor in cost assumptions at all ranges $20 to $100+ And will have various computations of profit at various prices .. Driving the cost of exploration and production down and moving the industry into more technological savings and reducing supply chain costs means that most of the majors can produce on shore profit even in the harshest of environments cheaper than deep sea offshore..
So called investors talking 88e down ? Get real if you have money invested why would you want to talk it down ?
Lots of news to come and it will soon..
BB32
Brom,
Agree with you, interesting thoughts re "Drilling update"
1. Presumably this is about Winx- confirmation everything on track, approvals given etc as per RMP message the other day.
2. But this could also be more definitive info re IW2 reasons for not performing, or update of where we are it.
Or 3. info on drilling planning for Yukon- Dave does planning properly in advance to get all i's dotted and t's crossed -conventional drilling plans submitted for approval 2 years ago now.
But as you always say - we don't know what we don't know
BB32
McIvor,
You weren't meant to back it as well !
"Tracked leaders, driven over 1f out, never on terms, weakened inside final furlong op 16/1"
Have been having a good run lately but more hopeful than realistic with its chances....
BB32
Every one uses the words Tier 1 but in reality it is just the biggest in the World by Production..Would be happy for anyone on the list to Farm in - Note Conoco Phillips are only 31 on the list.....
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/biggest-oil-companies-in-the-world.html
Oil price goes up and down daily and whilst it has been in gradual decline for a whilst it had recovered from $26 a barrel 4 years ago - lots of factors affecting price as I am sure everyone knows , for every thought about price continuing to go down there is always a counter argument.
Interesting thought posted on Seeking Alpha-
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221478-watch-saudis-say-watch-saudis
From $86.29 a barrel on 3rd October down to today's price of $65.33 today suggests that a bounce back will be coming soon and article is very plausible..
Will be playing on Brent going up shortly. ( my thoughts only not advice! )
Whilst writing RMP thoughts on Winx - interesting - very positive feel...
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4we9yxCZsvppke92GA%3D%3D
Also 88e RNS due shortly - cleansing statement re shares - not price sensitive
BB32
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4wa7zhiZ2I98ke92GA%3D%3D
BB32
128064,
Come on get with the program, Little Red Services have been tasked with suspending Ice Wiine 2 and look into everything that was done with the drill and fracs, from this early comments have been made suggesting as 75% of proppant went into lower zone which made contact with upper zone the high pressure gas seems to have prevented the frac water recovery. Some Oil was found in the upper level but was not able to be measured due to ongoing issues with connectivity of the two zones.
The well bore is still perfectly intact and it will be able to take a lateral drill, which is quite common with drilling.
Agree, that this is all about Farm out for conventional and then all about Winx for the moment, hopefully we will get the right deal which will give us sufficient monies to try Ice2 again, or we can go straight into farming out Unconventional.
BB32