IC - part 22 Mar 2015 17:40
A focus on gaming on mobile devices is critical to maintaining this growth as this segment now accounts for a third of all casino revenues, up from only a fifth at the end of 2013. Strict cost control is important too, something that 32Red is keeping an eye on. For instance, active gaming players shot up 15 per cent to over 82,000 over the course of 2014, but the added cost per acquisition of the new players was covered by the corresponding increase in gaming yield per customer.
Of course, the new tax regime will have an impact which is why Numis forecasts pre-tax profits of £4.7m on revenues of £34.8m in 2015 compared to profits of £5.5m on revenue of £32.1m in fiscal 2014. On this basis, expect adjusted EPS of 5.9p this year, down from 7p forecast in 2014. Still, this only means that the shares are priced on a modest 10 times likely earnings for this year, and on only 8.5 times once you strip out net cash worth 8p a share. Moreover, with cash generation strong, expect a dividend of 2.2p to be declared in next week’s full-year results on Thursday, 5 March. Mr Jones at Numis predicts a payout of 2.5p this year, implying a prospective yield in excess of 4 per cent.
So with the trading outlook much improved, and investor caution toward gaming companies overdone prior to the implementation of the new tax regime, then I see the bounce back in 32Red’s share price from last autumn’s lows continuing in the months ahead. Trading on a bid-offer spread of 59p to 60p, slightly above the price when I last updated the investment case (‘Gamble on recovery’, 25 September 2014), I rate 32Red’s shares a buy and have a six month target price range of 75p to 80p