IC10 Mar 2015 12:06
I feel that investors have massively overreacted to results from marketing service provider Communisis
(CMS: 56.5p). Having run up from 56p to 63p after I advised buying ahead of the full-year release (‘Catalysts for re-ratings’, 24 February 2015), the shares have given back all the gains despite the company reporting profits in line with analysts' estimates - adjusted EPS increased by 10 per cent to 4.75p in 2014 - and announcing a six-year contract with AXA UK for incoming and outgoing marketing and customer communication services.
The dividend was hiked by 11 per cent to 2p a share as anticipated, the £4m cost of which is covered almost three times over by annual free cash flow of £11.6m. True, net debt increased by £10m to £35.9m, but this was the result of acquisitions made and year-end borrowings are well within a £65m revolving credit facility, committed until March 2018, and a £5m overdraft that is renewable annually. Earn-outs of around £10m due on acquisitions over the next five years are easily covered by internal cash flow. Moreover, the company has negligible bad debts as 85 per cent of contracts are underpinned by multiyear agreements averaging five years and the top five clients, including Procter & Gamble (PG.), Lloyds Banking Group
(LLOY) and Nationwide Building Society, are all blue-chips and account for 63 per cent of the group's annual revenues.
As I see it, the only reason for the share price slide is a £21m non-cash writedown of goodwill on acquisitions made in the early years of the last decade and before the current management team took over. True, that was unexpected, and it would have been preferable if the board had communicated this in advance as it's hardly insignificant in terms of a fixed asset base of £205m. But let's not lose sight of the fact that the non-cash impairment charge doesn't impact at all on the future earnings expectations of the company.