IC17 Mar 2015 12:11
In my view, the currency headwind against the euro in part explains why shares in Trifast
(TRI: 99p), a global manufacturer and distributor of industrial fastenings, have been weak since the company posted an upbeat trading update a month ago (‘Upgrades to drive re-ratings’, 17 February 2015). In the past month sterling has risen by almost 5 per cent against the single currency.
However, I feel that investors are overreacting to these exchange rate move as margin gains, particularly from Trifast’s acquisition of VIC, an Italian manufacturer and distributor of fastening systems predominantly to the white goods industry, and ongoing organic sales growth have been offsetting the negative headwind of sterling’s strength. Trifast has also been benefiting from higher margin new contracts, exposure to the robust UK automotive sector and faster selling car models in particular, and a strong order pipeline with its large global original equipment manufacturers (OEM) customers.
In fact, in the last week alone, analysts at N+1 Singer and finnCap have both upgraded their earnings estimates modestly for the current fiscal year to end March 2015, and for next year too. Analyst David Buxton at finnCap predicts Trifast will deliver current year pre-tax profits of £13.5m and EPS of 8.1p, up from £9.2m and 6p, respectively in fiscal 2014, based on a 18 per cent rise in revenues to £153m. Jo Reedman at N+1 Singer and Nigel Harrison at Edison Investment Research have almost identical forecasts. On this basis, expect the payout per share to be raised from 1.4p to at least 1.7p (finnCap and Arden Partners estimates), and possibly as high as 1.9p (N+1 Singer), implying a prospective dividend yield of between 1.8 per cent to 2 per cent.