Member Info for BaysilHope

No disrespect, but all E & P's have debt not $2bn like PMO, $1.7bn Enq Hurricane, Tullow BP Chevron Exxon what the shite are you talking about, we cannot grow our own blocks without debt and we are at 13.5p because we have a small net asset base - + there are no believable expansion plans. Any debt south of $100m will be taken out by a CPO5 sale so there is no risk. So what rubbish point are you making debt is a necessary growth engine managed correctly, we are at the end of holding cash - kids play - that is sheer crap when most businesses have a manageable amount of debt or are you shorting - What a load of bollicks FFS Debt is an integral part of all commercial activity - the fact we have NONE is a financial disability - we are not monetising our assets, within a growth time frame - SO OUR COMPETITORS THAT HAVE DEBT + ACCELERATE PAST US - FFS they are using cash wisely, we glorify it and do not put it to proper use , I said NH is a sub accountant, reactive NOT PROACTIVE in Design limited really, and he is not getting Alex Snow backing - so we under perform and will continue unless we max the leverage of our Balance sheet - you all love GTE = GeoPark all borrow but at the top end. Come on you are better that that shite, maximum growth is achieved with an element of low interest debt preserving options, we are not playing the field. SO Bigsmoke what a load of shit FFS!

Borrow $50m and drill + add civils - the costs covered by Add 3rd party Oil sales, Amer could take a 2 year loan, advance civils and drill - especially Pint 2/3/4 + add to output - now knowing ONGC slow pace and lack of direction. Get a grip of our knowns FFS Push the envelope - Just don't understand the reticence - POO is clear above $60 Advance production FFS GLA.

I think the whole problem revolves around the communication of the impending migration of production from a dying Planet - sorry field. As if the BOD have been too frightened to admit Plat is dying thru natural depletion and 18 months ago we did not have another production alternative to migrate to. Hence PUT 8 or our New Earth is nearly habitable, just needs ANH to breathe life into it - with the necessary permissions. The disruption to production from this 'One Field' exodus is inevitable however, the unrealistic hype - output growth projections of 7/12/20kbopd in a short timescale was insane, but however WILL happen in time. The SP is marked down for the loss of control of our output and trading profits TBH -, it's collapsed, so forward earnings projections are difficult to map out and we are marked down for it. MM's hate uncertainty and failed promises.

Amer has pulled out a Harry Houdini -for new blocks and deals - with the pressures of the last 3 years knowing your production base is being eroded and potential trading results evaporating away.

That process is now nearing completion, the BOD need to re-energise dwindling production and get earnings profile back on track, I think PUT 8 permissions will be the marker by which Amer take back control of its production landscape. The realisation at last that our B Sheet reserves structure is J Arthur is welcomed and that's another improvement. In time, I still believe develop CPO5 and sell it, and reduce shares in shares in issue with a buy back and divi - whilst preserving production growth after the CPO sale, which means multiple drills.

I am just so annoyed - that after a Pint 1 duster, very poor recognition of the Indico find by the markets and against declining Plat output we drilled C u norman tango X 1 and it failed. There was far more riding on that drill than 2-4MMboe and that was a fecking mistake, an unnecessary set back instead of going straight for output I 2 appraisal not Exploration . Amer need to get back in control of the drill bit and exert some authority in re-shaping our trading profile. I think that will start at the AGM. We are where we are - simply because the BOD lost control of production and trading - the market is hammering us for that failure. There is no doubt the huge upside potential is there, its now all about execution!!! Above all else, exponential production and profit growth and if that means debt - fecking borrow FFS, what is the realistic output target for 2019 = Don't fecking know?? I know the acreage - I don't even know what our OBA storage capacity is, or as the BB said a detailed cost analysis - all accounting roads of blame lead to NH- face the fear - be transparent. We've survived migration to other production planets, now colonise them - literally. Remember, that transition from a dying star Made Superman stronger.

Market no idea the economical sequestration of PUT 8 reserves - neighbour, value approx. to OBA and paid for by a VAT refund FFS. Amer did an RI in 2016 issuing +140m shares at 25p ish as a precaution when POO hit sub $22, what have they done with the cash is incredible - to be marked down so hard. Found a massive Indico Oil Col, acquired PUT 14, Mecaya, PUT 8 acq'n which has taken a year of patience - All due respect and we are discounted at $71 POO, Fecking joke after BOD buy ins - and 2 dusters discounted by a multiple of 10 when compared to the monster CPO 5 discoveries FFS. This Co will turn, when Calamity John stops waxing LYRICAL and gets output right - we will grow. Not long now, As I said before not many CO's could sell 30% for +$100m, and then develop our new acquisitions as operator - esp PUT 8 -100% then crude Oil sales tariffs - Amer in 18 mths diff story. HNY

Sometimes a problem isn't all its failings but can present an oppo - if conditions allow , Amer now realise with the ONGC way they can't SERVE TWO MASTERS - with Ind 1 flying POP but then now a failure your dragged down to Calcutta levels of HQ and group. I really see us selling CPO 5 grooming next 7-8 mths when our others
investment , fields are drilled and hit home. I'd value it at say $150m plus divi I think this decision is decisive ONGC and a us are at an impasse control wise - OXY are waiting but they have paid $100m, I'd sell in 2019 and get out- reward with a share buy back 6p per share when all other drill progs are secured. .

Make your own mind up when you short and what value lies beneath - Quote - Recent Duster and how badly Amer has been disposed of, all E & P have a failure but ours ois a NET gain and we are down!! Simples - Compare the Market . com -
Rowallan Well Result
London, 4 April 2019 - Serica Energy plc (AIM: SQZ) announces that exploration well 22/19c-7, drilled to explore the Rowallan prospect has reached a total depth of 4,641 metres and will be plugged and abandoned. The well, operated by ENI UK Ltd., encountered a 182m section of sandstone and shale, but was not found to be hydrocarbon bearing. The well was high pressure and high temperature and drilled using managed pressure drilling and continuous circulating technology. The well was drilled on time and on budget. Serica was fully carried and did not pay any of the costs of the well. Serica's partners in the well were ENI UK Ltd. 32% (operator), JX Nippon 25%, Mitsui 20% and Equinor 8%. Mitch Flegg, Chief Executive of Serica Energy commented:
"We are naturally disappointed that the well has not encountered hydrocarbons. We will now assess the valuable data acquired before deciding the forward plan for the remaining prospects on block 22/19c and adjacent blocks. This result justifies our policy of reducing financial exposure to exploration risk by means of farm-out. In this case we were fully carried and did not pay anything towards the cost of the well.
We remain fully committed to building on our balanced exploration, development and production portfolio.

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2018

London, 28 September 2018 - Serica Energy plc (AIM: SQZ) today announces its financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2018. The results are included below and copies are available at www.serica-energy.com and www.sedar.com.
Results Highlights
Financial
· First half loss of US$8.4 million compared to a profit of US$10.3 million for the equivalent period last year resulting from suspension of Erskine production for the majority of the period and transition expenditure required to implement the BKR Transaction. · Balance sheet remains robust with cash and cash equivalents plus term deposits at mid-year standing at US$21 million.
This deceptacon value will change when they get what they want. - ' He Wants it, He gets it , some II's you just can't reach

IMO DYOR - I think if conditions become conducive with POO and Corp Tax are correct and successful drilling, AMEr and PMO will sell their assets to achieve more control over their long term business plan production fields . With Amer - the BOD are getting reserves ready for a divi or ( MAYBE LATER) for a CPO5 sale a share buy back from reserves, which they can't do today. PMO same sell the minority share when other projects are more advanced and with cash PMO pay off debt, AMer share buy back - simples and 10 months away. HNY Please short HNY

Agreed F1 they also hate $71 POO also - I love the Market - please knock this further down over the next 12 mths so I can retire. Look the dead cat bounce has gone - take cash out of our Mkt cap and there's not a lot left to attack. That's why the BOD are going Divi route as I told them 5 mths ago, PMO ENQ HUR RKH TULL etc etc NONE can do it except Amer - despite our real PR and depletion issues, look forward +3 drills and 3rd party Oil sales GN. HNY And despite what I read - our Directors purchases - JW +8m in one is without equal despite the persistent sellers - cum DIR buying even greater than THE tremendous CEO AB in ENQ which I respect and hold shares in - our BOD are No. 1 and I hope more to come from both superb Companies..

The last 12 month delays for Farc sake over PUT8 was all about us getting 100%, now the delay is More under our control - not HELD AS a deal in waiting, CPO 5 - again a review of operations, not like last summer - rain stops play, Pint 1 update is a bloomer and Why they don't man up eludes my testos but - this is a light year ahead of April 2018 309 per share - when the barrel of Merde excuses exploded, we OWN PUT 8 - the Next Plat FFS and is weeks away from drilling , 3rd party Oil soon - the dividend insurance policy. GN GLA

At the end of 2018 there is a deferred Credit of $15m - Shell Draw Down, repaid by Oil, it is NOT a financial instrument so NOT classed as an Overdraft. Amer stock 2018 Oil $10.4m up from $4.9m stated at cost plus recoverable overheads. So reconcile production to Income. output 5350 per day 1.95m at realised POO $124m sales. Need to work on Oil volume stated in the Balance sheet at Cost not sales value say $40/b, so $7m royalties is 175k barrels cost , then our stock held for better PO prices nearly 170 - 200k barrels at $40 cost = $6m uplift in stock . Hence low sales of 11 mths, +1 mth prod held to repay Shell at a higher POO, as we have drawn down. And that's IMO why OBA output is the realise of stock at $71 not $55 accelerating the repayment of the $15m advance. So 2018 profits are understated as we hedged stock against POO by 1mth prod. This also buffers Q1 results from reduced Indico output related to CX1 drilling, smoothing out cashflow and profits. So I think +$10m sales were held over to 2019, for higher POO and a results H1 buffer. No doubt 2 dusters has knocked our business plan back 6 mths, the VAT refund will pay for PUT 8 and that refund IMO will only be paid when cash strapped Col has its Royalty barrels - hence the early repayment. So Amer can now enjoy a Shell facility repaid with another $15m available and $15m VAT less $19m for PUT 8 fully funded. If we didn't have those 2 dusters, JW would be major of Bogota, but they happened, the real clever people get plan B correct with no slip ups. Hence the benign presentation, as key decisions are in development.

As 12-13p most is priced in, the bears will have their way which helps others recover dignity after another failure, however, the road to true growth is always lead by cost investment and pain and the dividend developments are a realisation by the BOD that they must deliver a Share-holder return. Notice NH says there is no distributable reserves, yet the GROUP shows distributable $3. When you look closer, Company law only a COMPANY can pay a dividend, not a group. A GROUP is an amalgamation of many companies results added together. IF the holding company, does not have positive reserves no divi can be paid. In our case - see Balance sheet Group has $28m reserves, Co parent -$72m, so it - today cant pay out. What this means is reserves are all with the profitable subsidiaries, if free can vote an upside divi to the group holding Co , creating +ve reserves and then the divi can be paid. But we are in Sterling and our cash in US $ so NH Group accountant has let this slip FFS. So this has been left unattended, I think AMer has NO OPTION but to vote for a divi as soon as 3rd party Oil deal is done - we can trade Oil and acts like a fourth Oil field earner and GC needs to leave on a high. IMO DYOR - WIP. I'll wait for the train of abusive shorting then add for a 2 year view. GLA

How did you imagine or even guess the outcome - how difficult really hard given the @ Quote If it is anything like Indico-1 then prepare yourselves for the mother of all rerates? Well played - if anyone looks at your posts 2 weeks posts =I'd say there's a strong clue Guess IMO Hello John got a new Motor - will take it all back there. Leave it at that, with friends HNY

Well Played - You'r a clever guy no doubt, learned things - but the point is out IMO - Quote CD ' Expectations should be as per company guidance. There's a chance it could be bigger than 9.8mmboe and there's a chance it could just be 2mmboe. Or zero.

If it is anything like Indico-1 then prepare yourselves for the mother of all rerates. That would make the combined Indic-1 and Calao-1 discoveries close to 300mmboe (30% recovery circa 100mmboe and roughly 30mmboe in reserves to AMER). Now that's how you can get excited and raise expectations. But why not just expect the company guidance of 2mmboe as the base case and be 'hopefully' pleasantly surprised??

ColonelDrake, for the slow guy in the class could you explain how connectivity is proven or even suggested from the well logs/flow tests? I'd be very interested to know what they want to see when trying to prove up connectivity between resources. I've tried to research this online and anything I have found on the subject has been extremely technical and a simpler explanation would be really appreciated.
Will the oil from Ind 1 migrate to Cal 1...will this also have been looked at. Can reserves be booked from Cal 1. Cal 1 is more than just about flow rates.
Gl

Excellent - You've had first move - no more though - I like the fall guy stunt myself HNY Best research - if you read it its Fecking degree level. Takes a fall to learn HNY - Well played Sweet pea.

There is one positive of an SP raid, you learn the truth about a few that are on the side lines, peeps you think - are not bias , no surprise that's life, but at least one thing,with all my faults I am real, what you see is what you get . All you ghost players good luck - trouble is when it becomes real you can't deceive - if you play physical sports and someone relies on you, or in family life your duty is called on, Man up - I can't take deception on to or pass on any other playing field, I'd rather lose and be an honest man not a scum sucker for a fast buck - YES be quicker clever than the market - no issues I wish I was that clever I'm not but I've run businesses successfully for decades but hate certain parts of this shite, brings out the worst - Easter coming and the 30 pieces of silver are already being fought over - After 2000 yrs except for the IT bit - we are back to square one. And there's a few guys or peeps on here I have further doubts about - but that's me - I'm a lawnmower you can tell me by the way I walk - Genesis FFS

To exit CPO5 Amer would need to prove up +30mmbo of P1 at £7/m +36API , we have 6MMBO now for I 1 which was never valued in - so 4- 6 wells would do that easily +24 MMBO +36API - and I said earlier - execute at a small discount and bolster the Mkt Cap from free cash as we bought CPO5 for bladders and treat it as a windfall to be shared with PI's feck the MM's doable within 2019 execute 2020. Amer is at a turning point which never comes pain free. They could sell after 6 drills by then - PUT 9 PUT 8 and the 2 x TT's Mecaya are kicking in. IMOP DYOR GN

JTD Agreed, say Amer ONGC take the low risk route strike 4 low risk appraisals and then we want out - have to be north of $200m?? Gross IMO DYOR. Could be a smart move- delay to the start of 2020 to defer tax on the sale. GLA HNY GN

Dividends need low risk income and consistent volumes, IMO the OBA tariff rev is the key use 50% uto overheads - and 50% to finance a Divi, which is consistent low effort payout - leaving the volatility of E & P to grow by itself whilst protecting Mkt Cap SIMPLES - DYOR . I don't think the OBA is limited to 9kbopd - news will out soon. GLA

CPO5 is not in the SP, if sold the cash will be and a confirmed dividend, I can see a sale in this year say north $150m easy when we have advanced all other prospects - then a at 14 SP - with s divi $6m and a 200m share buy back No. total costing $35m post CPO 5 sale now brainer . That s a 16% reduction in shares. Out of Petty cash, could Enq PMO Tullow do that - Like Feck, and you guys are shorting a $3m duster FFS move on as they say in Newcastle - Away lad!!

Due Next Mth add $11m p.a , covers any drill downside risk. Can't see the issues really - No Debt, Reserves increase $100m farm out better placed than any other - Not subject to hedging, hold the Oil in stock till Oil increases due to +ve cash flow. Never valued up by the markets at 17p, so downside risk = Shorting oppo minimal really. Crack on. Enjoy - Next month should have 3 drills in parallel , Put 8 Plat & Indico Appraisal. - One will hit surely Shirley and so on and so forth, the cash is there. GN

This was Amer's Arnhem, a Expo drill too early and an early risk too far, in hindsight BUT . The learnings will make for more informed decisions, still at a fundamental level, earnings, reserves unaffected - only timescale delay and I will NOTE the point that buying PUT 8 knowing there was a duster - too me really confirms that PUT 8 will kick in as we own 100% to output soon, a lot of recent posts here will be gone as soon as the shorting oppo closes. Amer will get to 35p as Stifel re-affirms today, they will have to re-arrange drilling options and it will take probably 3-4 months longer. In the grand scheme patience, but the fundamentals are ROCK SOLID and the MM's had their day today and maybe the next week or so - but as more funds arrive I will add. I heard some mucker talk of Enq up +10% from a 10 year low, FFS its been hammered for 6mths after the rights issue, some strange short orientated spice happening here. Amer is the only AIM Oiler that can pay a dividend FFS it has the reserves and the cash even after PUT 8 as the OXY deal - really is a $100m cash injection, hence we could buy PUT 8 due to lessened capex obligations. If the BOD state there will be a 2019 dividend then this SP will rocket and THE ONLY WAY TO DEFEND a takeover -and it can be maintained with OXY PUT 8 and Indico infill wells. Remember after Arnhem the Allies learned THE LESSON and won the war, sometimes - a mistake in NEW territory is best learned early, now multi rigs in Indico. I wish the duster was stated earlier but its not an RI at 30% discount to the SP. Still exit rate prod'n north of 10kbopd. GLA If I were the BOD its a DIVI for 2019 , as share buy back takes ages to work thru. GL

No where have we seen this before!! - GeoPark Announces New Tigana Norte 1 Oil Discovery and Tigana Field Extension in Block Llanos 34 in Colombia - 2014 GeoPark drilled and completed the Tigana Norte 1 well to a total depth of 12,141 feet. A test conducted with an electrical submersible pump in the Guadalupe formation, at approximately 11,557 feet, resulted in a production rate of approximately 1,061 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") of 14.6 degrees API, with a 0.49% water cut. Further production history will be required to determine stabilized flow rates of the well.

Production and reservoir analyses from the Tigana 1, 2 and 3, Tigana Sur 1 and Tigana Norte 1 wells on the Llanos 34 Block now indicate that three previously delineated fields and prospects form part of a single larger combined (structural and stratigraphic) trap and field, productive from the Cretaceous Guadalupe and Tertiary Mirador formations. The field is currently producing over 8,500 bopd gross from the 5 wells drilled and completed to date. The Company is carrying out further development and appraisal drilling this year on the Tigana Field complex, including the Tigana Sur Oeste 1 well that is currently being completed. Preliminary results suggest that the stratigraphic component of the trap could enhance the exploration potential of the Llanos 34 Block area.

DOWN DIP - LOWER SANDS
2017 - The Tigana Norte 4 well follows the recently drilled Tigana Norte 3 and Tigana Norte 2 wells (currently producing 4,600 bopd with less than 0.2% water cut in aggregate) and extends and broadens the Tigana oil field towards the northeastern limits of the Llanos 34 block. The well was drilled outside the 3P reserve outline defined in the 2016 (D&M) reserves certification, to a bottom-hole location that is approximately 75 feet down dip of the Tigana Norte 1 well (previous lowest-known-oil in the 2016 D&M reserves certification), and did not encounter the oil-water contact.

GeoPark is currently drilling the Tigana Norte 5 well to a bottom-hole location that is further down dip of Tigana Norte 4 well to further delineate the northeastern boundaries of the Tigana oil field.

I think the key words in all this are 'Full to Spill' I don't pretend to be a geologist, nor have engineering background - to me Full to spill means Oil that has to go somewhere. GL - I'm feed up now need news, the SP impasse is groundhog day FFS. GLA AS JW was pointing to in May 18 connectivity - as seen with these fields. GN