Member Info for BaysilHope

Sorry BB, the company where I work has recently been taken over and I had to supply data, analysis, so that the acquirer passed their Due Diligence review. That took a lot longer, only as it was a private SME with no specific timeline. Here, the rush is happening NOW - digest the data, review the non financials seismic, get in control to calculate your bid and counter proposals - so news will be SLOW on a front loaded basis. Then after digestion, the informal bush telegraph is second guessing, then let the dogs out. It could become very very exciting - with many varying options to review. GLA GN

CP 81, you've duplicated the last 2 posts, check your PC. Anyone with experience of operating within a data room enviro needs 4-6 weeks - minimum for their team to fully appraise the details to strap on to the assumed knowledge financial projections and then flex the bidding budget and the revise the NPV of Future discounted cashflow on a synergy basis, that takes time and get it wrong costs millions, also underbid - you miss the opportunity of a Putumayo lifetime.

Coller seems to me to be a very patient and measured man, the data room is his jungle, with an army of analysts, so to Geopark and so on. The elephant in the room IMO is ONGC, who has 70% of an increasingly valuable asset and want to get the 30% FFA. With OXY there, I can't see the value in them acquiring Amer, restricted headroom for their Mkt Cap. Conversely our guys, after being tucked up by ONGC, no 2nd rig, drill the marginal I2, Sol, no appraisal well - delayed, buying a prolonged wait+ 3 years since M1 , will make them pay full value. I am set to add more when there is either more clarity on POO and the length of the trade war impasse - andor/Amer news. GLA . Last post. GN

2 shares for every 5 owned and not 5:2, a capital reduction of 500m shares 23-5p - £125m with US $ sub 1,20 sterling.

If CPO5 could be sold to Geopark for $150-180m cash, then Amer could offer a 5:2 share buy back at 25p, reducing shares in issue form 1,215k to 700k, Amer would earn $130m after tax, it could pay a 0.5p dividend guaranteed for 2-3 years until output and reserves recover under the OXY deal, by holding $15m to one side for a divi that costs 40% less to maintain.

Amer Ex CPO5 would be worth £150m before OXY kicks in , where we were at 12p a share but with only 700m in circulation the 25p a share could be maintained by way of yield. The BOD would need to change GC gone, Coller puts a few men in and he could see out his vision for that region. So potential for Cake and eat it, PI's get 25p for 40% of their shares and still hold Amer with yield at mid 20's ready for OXY & OBA next 6-9 months.

Only a guess, an option that's not a takeover but doable. This man has stayed the course through all this, as I said before Amer has never properly publicised the positive social reforms it does in the PUT region by taking out illicit drugs off the market and replace with farming. That's ESG in my book, big time. Only a guess, if he breaks up the rest, then he may insist on a social reform commitment. Last post. GLA.

Last point, I could not quite understand why Amer held back more drilling, didn't take out debt and let ONGC rule the roost and SP slide . In a share buy back it makes sense, the future earnings potential is still held back for the existing remaining shareholders, in a takeover it is LOST to the successful bidder at an SP less than 40p. IMO planned a while ago.

I think Coller is great news for this process, it replaces a negative unknown Michinko structure, with a very positive one. GLA
Last post. Only a guess. CPO% is the problem alongside the BOD.

The undoubted success of CPO5 Mariposa and Indico 1 have had a negative impact of Amer's BOD ability to navigate ONGC's lack of guidance, delays, transparency and effectively have circumvented control over the Amer business plan last 2 years. GC & JW are not strong enough or have the necessary bargaining power- Pre July 'Up for sale to sell CPO5 get a great price and march on. It seems daft to sell Amer just before the $100m OXY investment bears any fruits.
I think this is why Coller, in concert with II's have forced this action, primarily to liquidate CPO5 at a great price. The application of those funds - say $150-180m, could provide a sweeter option than a takeover IMHO. Post 3 DYOR - a Guess but a possible one no Amer have allowed access to distributable reserves.

ESG Environmental, social and corporate governance, Coller foundation big long term committed philanthropist, IMO this new piece of info has been critical in my 'Guess Only' revaluation of Amer's options. Michinko also have 8.8% of PPC, where they've worked alongside IFC and Peter Levine originally to develop Paraguay. Still after 4-5 years of lack of results, he still holds firm, in the background.
Equator Principles – Long Term Goals
The Equator Principles is a risk management framework, adopted by financial institutions, for determining, assessing and managing environmental and social risk in project finance. It is primarily intended to provide a minimum standard for due diligence to support responsible risk decision-making. As of 6 March 2017, 92 adopting financial institutions in 37 countries have officially adopted the Equator Principles, covering the majority of international Project Finance debt in emerging and developed markets. Equator Principles Financial Institutions (EPFIs) commit to not provide loans to projects where the borrower will not or is unable to comply with their respective social and environmental policies and procedures.
The Equator Principles, formally launched in Washington DC on 4 June 2003, were based on existing environmental and social policy frameworks established by the International Finance Corporation. These standards have subsequently been periodically updated into what is commonly known as the International Finance Corporation Performance Standards on social and environmental sustainability and on the World Bank Group Environmental, Health, and Safety Guidelines.[39]
Asset managers and other financial institutions increasingly rely on ESG ratings agencies to assess, measure and compare companies' ESG performance.
By understanding how Coller thinks could give a valuable insight into further options. This guy has a vision!!!!

Hi Leas, THE KEY here is the selling up - as you are mega aware, is selling the future incremental increase in earnings, and not historical failioures whilst E & P will get discounted for unknowns, OBA is relatively risk free - it is an asset that needs straight forward capacity investment and can be mirrored within our land-bank portfolio. JW GC forgot, the only man ever to succeed in E & P in South America with NO DEBT were the Spanish or Captain Henry Morgan. If my view Amers assets at a 5 year game - there is no one IMO E & P with the same Upside, GTE great but confined by debt, Geopark -partnership limitation 47% of this or that, ONGC monster bound want to get CPO% for Feck all , OXY we are too small, IMO House sale and break up, everyone wants a piece, whole is discounted . ICI Mid 80's. Debt free, one advantage no banks to feck it up. It is the very selling ANGLE OF EVERYONE LOSING THEIR ESP WILL WIN - explained, no one wants all, everyone wants a piece, key here is selling. marketing, Stifel who?? Private equity take out like Chrysoar in North Sea job. HNY Load up!!

One quick one, OBA Blue Sky potential 50kbopd @ $5 - $91m net of Tax 64m less Ecu Capex ( if Chiritzo $4m, say $25m Ecu all in for OBA ) at US 1.2 Sterling PE ratio of a non quoted SME 4 = +$230m for starters, PUT 14 allows another route into Ecu evacuation system. So you can squeeze OXy up, GYE with PUT 30 Coati maybe PUT 8 as a sweetner, then ONGC to Feck off - ripe for a Private equity fund to take off and dismember but has to get Shareholders backing - Michinkho. The strategic quality of the ground is key we have a ransom strip across the Ecu border!! That comes with a price. I agree with CD why aren't we drilling = Because we have an outline deal methinks in tow. Sad thing the BOD couldn't deliver - IMO because they were TOO CAUTIOUS, too concerned about cash, never levered the balance sheet once OXY came in. now they have to give away the bride.

The passing of one regime, the beginning of a new, if we can NAIL Fusion = 25 years - go bye dirty nuclear FISSION Splitting Very Heavy crap Uranium 135 or!! and waste - endless carbon, Helium 3 from the Moon left over from the Sun's furnace has one less proton so cheaper and less destructive in the Plasma chamber where temps hit +100mC but energy is clean and forever - Utility companies dream !!! Back to Amer - Assets break up is best - whatever SPV, Special Purpose Vehicle delivers that, good thing there are multiple options, form its long history of trading. Dana was a loss, that human in country resource loss triggered minds no doubt, I'm in and will hold. GLA Cheers Leas, no news little to beat my gums on. Lets hope for a great auction.

Thankls Leas

My favourite Prime Minster would be Mr Mark J Carney head of the BOE for making $100 trillion of Quoted Co's declare their global Climate impact in their accounts - Yet the Trump meister says Ney, In so doing - all E & P's get smashed BP etc and then Centrica says no to E & P as a strategy - crap results - green utopia with consumers - but then smashed yes slashed divi etc so unless you are investing in Chinese companies bringing back Helium 3 for Nuclear fusion from the Moon , ditch energy. Yes - so ditch Energy, Matter is made from Energy FFS E=Mc2 no energy no nothing. So what are the fund managers doing by dissing energy? Facebook can't heat 53m homes in the UK , deliver energy for industry or get fuel sufficient to meet daily needs. Energy imbalanced stocks will recover as natural resources decline and new technologies emerge financed by energy. . What a load of cogones. Think of the UK & US before a national grid system and electricity production 1910 Utilities up. We are starting that kind of review. But we need Big Oil profits to invest in emerging tech, CAUSE FACEBOOK AIN'T GOING TO DELIVER THERE- - The Continental Shelf investment book is adversely skewed, against energy - where we need investment to reduce climate change and deliver world growth - and less Snap chat valued at 30 times Centrica or BP FFS - which are not in the Physical world but playful cloud. Rant over. GLA

Put-30 Working interest 100% Acres 95,172 MMBO 151.5*
* Management mid-case prospective resources. Put-30 covers approximately 95,172 acres and lies
within the Putumayo basin, approximately 55km to the north of both the Company’s 100% owned
Platanillo field and 60% owned Put-12 contract. In December 2016, Amerisur acquired the outstanding
working interest in the block from Talisman Colombia Oil & Gas Ltd, thus holding 100% and operatorship.
The block has Cretaceous exploration potential in line with the adjoining Andaquies block (Amerisur 100%)
and additionally has a recognised Tertiary Play concept. The Company will evaluate the potential of producible
heavy oil deposits in the Neme formation. The block has unrisked mid-case prospective resources of
151.5 MMBO. Amerisur is completing the final phase of the Consulta Previa with an indigenous community within
the block as a necessary step before seismic data acquisition during 2019.
Andaquies
Working interest 100% Acres 114,879 MMBO 14.4* * Management mid-case prospective resources.
Andaquies covers approximately 114,879 acres and is 100% owned and operated by Amerisur.
The block lies to the north east of a proven structural play within the Putumayo basin and has multiple
proven reservoir targets, six mapped leads targeting both proven and speculative plays and unrisked
mid-case resources of 14.4 MMBO. Andaquies is contiguous with Put-30, with no X factor and low work
commitments of one exploration well by the end of 2018. ANH granted the Company an extension of this
period while environmental licensing and a Consulta Previa are completed. HNY See earlier post, GTE interest.

A private equity break up could suit Amer- say take us out 23-25p £300m of which $50m is our cash, net bid say 20p £260m . GTE would love PUT 30 with huge potential 55km north 150MMbo, plus Coati and Antaq, say $40m to the hedge fund, OXY take PUT 8 and other 50% same basis plus PUT 14 +$150m, plus $75m for OBA for infra structure + blending rights and permissions and ONGC get CPO 5 for drag it out $150m with sterling on its backside - 3 way split. 3 Companies get what they want GTE, OXY ONGC and the hedge fund takes $100m profit off the table very quickly +38% return ex cash & fees.. HNY People PUT 30 is a big deal, sweet spot see GTE Put 31.

Simples Yorkie Bar - Disruptor - Amer Up Yep Amer down No -As they say - Flies close to the wind - not a genuine Amer - hides behind dissing me for cash - I 've been here plus 4 yrs - its the new tory - Data Manipulation - Cambridge ....... Would kill their own young ...................!!!! GN

Niles Cheers - not the general just Noise GLA My Man

Because its easy to get 100kbopd through RODA with no investment and no lead time, (no politics - but this is the real world) for the Board deliver and we have 5p of that 17p bid in CASH already in the Balance Sheet. Distraction point, MM's When over last 6 mths Market think - know ONGC have our coat tails - because we have a massive hard on BOD with $50m
in bank doing FA, actually weakening our investment position, if we took on $75m debt with real plans SP +30p with excitement END.

Simples and I'm bullish on Amer but a realist. IMO DYOR I think Amer is like Saturn 5 Apollo 11 mission - 1m of thrush potential in 3 stage.... . First jettison ONGC at +$100m, 2nd stage Share buy back & Divi, 3rd Stage lad on the Moon - get OBA to 100kbopd. Then my son you will see +£1 per share. Achievable if Lord Browne was CEO - this Mob - the opportunity is there - the will - the talent???? I still believe JW was set up to fail, I really do. Hence my patience to hold. Last post. GLA GN One small step for GC One Giant leap for PI's thx for 17p. FFS Last post - garden. Great deals this week. Chill. HNY

I said all along, don;t wait on ONGC, take debt on develop our output invest in Ecuador Pipeline fields and eliminate the VARIOUS ECU choke points, add value - laughed at, that mistake has now partly caused us to warrant a sale !! . A 50kbopd OBA is worth Italian lira unless you can unlock Ecuador Choke points, that is currently 9kbopd after chiritzo pump and - never a clearly mapped out capex in Ecu to get to 50k and leadtime - limiting factors. So any bid will discount Capex to get to 50kbopd - if ever you can!!?? We not given the real state of RODA FFS Land legislation etc etc and Feck you lead-time in achieving that in Ecu . There is no doubt IMO JW has been side swiped by ONGC after Indico success, hence missed forecasts. Perfidious ONGC behaviour. To get CPO5 on the cheap. I wish the BOD all the best in their endeavours, unfortunately GC's misguided trust with his Indian friends has been very costly indeed. What next - I would luz us sell CPO5 say $150m and tell ONGC to Feck off, and agree with II's an option outcome, huge share buy back out of the sale and neverending divi's progression - giving accountable yield, accelerate OXY deal drilling and get to 70p in 2years time. Dreaming? But IMHO - ONGC has forced this on the BOD- SP trapped at 12p as no development timeline for CPO5 embarrassing the BOD very narrow ill conceived business plan !!!, by holding out 2nd rig - forcing the drilling toward marginality high risk ends, as I said WHY WHY oh why we did not have option 2 to support the SP. Clazy F..ing Clazy. If we drop CPO5 we become our own masters again with a bucket full of cash. The II's know that, is it cash now or more later. IMHO this action by the BOD is last chance but - they are attempting to re- take control back of our future FROM ONGC - they did well adopting this action, as it shows Bxlls - if bid too small and so .Interesting times. GLA GN - Big travel tmz. Cardiff. Last post. This is what happens when you allow disproportionate reliance on a business option - YOU ARE NOT IN CONTROL OF- Sweat pea. Hence Debt risks are feck all comparing the loss of control of the business. Here endeth the lesson. HNY

OXY's timely buy has given Amer +$18m and shut off GTE also - the ability to defend itself in the event of no deal, but bidder analysis would factor in our BOD defence tactics options bolstered by June trans. . Missed that point GN GLA

CP 81, I agree, after all the set backs, what's the fall back position , if all bids fail and its a walk out??? . To be fair to the BOD, by selling 50% Put 8 recovers the cash position $50m ish , if all the suitors don't play nice, GTE Geo ONGC etc, the back stop could be an Interim Divi now cleared legally and a managed Share buy back, at 17p that £18m PUT 8 be +110m shares or 10% Mkt Cap, so there's an element of safety if there is bidder collusion DYOR IMO to starve Amer . A return to 12p would be unkind, the BOD now have the authority to hold the SP - come what may at 15-17p, if games are being played and bring forward the Interim results as a defence mech, increase reserves etc. Yorkshorelife- leave me alone tonight please.... Last post tonight. And promise a final divi pending the sale of CPO5. Blindfold stuff really but the last 5 yrs SP - spreads fear. CD one point - you stated earlier Brill by Amer OBA etc why were we at 12p?? You know your stuff, the put up for sale sign - BOD have lost control of the Market confidence years ago, have no choice, but to manage a glider landing!! IMHO. GN GL

IMO - Get the ducks in a row, stop hiding, Never understood why we didn't take Ecuador on with the OBA , probably lack of local in depth quality - time to reflect - I think LTH's will get their deserved - in time. GN CPO 5 is a quality asset - OXy hold the rest CPO 5 is a side show until we drill PUT 12 etc ewtc

Hence why I said Munchausen's syndrome? Amer BOD - Mega Sad DC gone - killed me. What goes around comes around about exaggeration. Our 30% CPO% Value - has been managed very carefully down by ONGC and JW got ahead of himself with CX1 - cool heads needed here but I still think Net of Tax +$120m for our take. The problem is PUT 8 down and Ex CPO 5 output we are Shi-ite so the lack of planning again - or we get a record deal. HNY It's all vague! GN