Member Info for BaysilHope

DYOR x

Look at Ed Milliband go - Sp fecked ...

or.................................................?????

With the aggressive acquisitions and chaotic M&A -have they performed sufficient Due Diligence on the target companies? Which blankets real value and is a discount for most legal practices - contingent liabilities 7 year book!!!!!! , especially with young inexperienced mix of staff and raced billing results . I got out after a retest. GLA

Funny, when you strive, work hard and try and attain your life time goal, some fecker degrades it - init .... FFS Get human Quote
Is this Mkt real life?
Is £4.77 just fantasy?
Caught on the downside
No escape from short reality
Open your eyes,
Look at your peers and see
HBR’s no poor boy, need’s no sympathy,
Because ftse come, ftse 250 go,
Little high, little low,
Any way BP blows doesn't really matter to….
LOOK GUYS WHAT AN ACHIEVEMENT FFS BE PROUD . HNY

Despite my suicidal tendencies sub £4.90, doesn't Dayus bring Monday's triple bottom, 11th, 25th & 9th may. Cheap entry point for TU - should offer protection against a sea of troubles out there. Energean drilled a beauty again - Athena east Med, they are building massive gas reserves but little production to date until FPSo gets on line , get in there HBR. Hopefully Tiapam could be the next company maker, like Athena lowish risk, comfortable tie back- huge corporate boost, new on drilling outlook Wednesday, if we get there. GLA

£6.00 NSS
£5.55 BH
£5.43 kign

Mine is subdued as its only + 2 days after for comp cut off - think by the end of week 2 post TU + £6 GLA

GR agree other FTSE firm facing down pressure, we will be on the up. Big after hrs trade £9.5m @ 500.3 RNs next week, hopefully more GIC offloading. Overhang reducing.. why held at £5??? GLA

Did go in and out @ £1.40's - waited until i thought was a good entry point - £1.03 am happy with after down 8% - speculative buy, IMO selling overdone, TU 19th I believe. GLA No doubt will fall further but made a start.

Simple fact, the product of the merger left TOO many small denominated shares in issue, unmanageable for administration, trading, earnings and dividends calculations- clumsy and awkward/ The Share Con - 1 for 20 simply clears up this legacy capital issue altogether. IMO - it would be too early to faff about now with another capital reorg (2nd tear of trading????) - would only distract from the reinforcement of the trading and mission statements. Maybe when the shares hit £12-15 with a trading, share buyback and dividend track record has been established. GLA - but boys common sense 16.7bn shares was an operational joke, 925m makes sense.

Pleebs, in an ideal world if HBR were valued on a pE7-8 they could issue shares to acquire a target with a lower earnings profile but greater reserves potential. Neptune IMO are too big for an infant HBR, we'd get side swiped in a merger and to small to take it over, especially at $110 POO. Oil majors are throwing off - late phased fields and HBR could gain 30-40kboe from cash. I think we are on the launch pad for dynamic growth and I would not want to dilute that with a merger.

Tiapam & Zama in time could be massive, fill in the gaps with cash\debt strategic acquisitions - to maintain growth , until one of those projects falls into to our immediate development plan. GLA. MM's playing games £ drops 2% today, POO $113, Nat Gas klazy - US stating Energy top of the food chain with strong outlook and low PE ratios. When China comes back on $130 Brent and Nat Gat gets banned from Russia - sky is the limit.

Yep, Sterling now $1.24, HBR daily profit appreciation +5% due to FX, HBR should be making close to £4.5m per day - NPBT - giving an Actual EPS for 2022 of 3 - THREE FFS. More than happy to sit this out. Was tempted on S4 capital on delayed results, earmarked next week, missed it.
The fundamentals here are second to none - with a post Tolmount TU Broker Re rate - should be £6.30 then H1 £7.50 then FYR +£10, no brainer, excluding major drilling results (Company maker) in the pipeline.
Need to look beyond the games and be patient. Macro outlook superb when all else is clouded, with debt smashed Base rate increases does not effect earnings. GLA.

Three, yes 3 Trading days before the TU, would NOT want to be SHORT here, anytime. Pick up the cheap shares now or get roasted. IMO DYOR no advice offered nor given, caveat emptor, full and final settlement agreed 7 5th amendment plea. HBY I've added again, especially with S&P panic subsiding for a few weeks, EU ban on Russian oil+$110 Brent - Nat Gas $150 boe , company on course for record news and the SP is a gift, heavily discounted when all negatives are covered. GLA

What's changed since CMD day, 8th Dec, when SP was £4.33 prior to the report, the negatives that sent the SP down -£1.00 have ALL been addressed IMO, looking at the reasons the SP was discounted and what the TU should bring...
1. Failure to bring on major new project Tolmount in Dec 21 - Done
2. Poor prod'n 175k Dec 21 - HBR should release RECORD output circa 235k for May 22 up +34%
3. Little Exposure to Mkt Prices for Oil & Gas dec 21 - NOW Oil + 50% Unhedged - Nat Gas with Tolmount circa 35% Unhedged - greater increasing exposure to Mkt prices.
4. Debt $2.3bn Dec 21 - TU should see debt down to $1.5bn record reduction RECORD EBITDA on track
5. Share Overhang - GIC & Creditors were 18%, GIC down to 6% last RNs -2/3rds reduction HUGE decrease - overhang gone in 2-3 months.
6. EIG - end of Lock Up 31st mar 22 - shares held tightly
7. Commodity prices Dec 21 POO $70 now $110 + 57% - Nat Gas was $3.80 to $8.3 up +120% Record highs
8. Share holder returns - div to be paid and 15% Share Buyback wheels in motion.
9. FTSE 250 company Dec 21 to be FTSE 100 within 2 months

Best prospects of any midcap Oiler and we are at £5 only +15% higher than pre CMD day - what a bargain!!! GLA - No doubt held back.

Big sigh of relief with US rate hike 75 basis points kicked out. EU embargo of Russian Oil should counter weak China data, look out when they return to normality, Nat Gas up. HBR should be thru £6 with Tolmount at full production for starters - straight into FTSE 100 in June. TU next week, news of debt, share buybacks, drilling updates and possible M&A targets. HNY GLA

IMO - the $4.8bn Merger reserve is a legacy transaction of the merger and acts as a speed clam on a amount of funds the BOD can distribute, a precautionary financial collar until the post merger entity's trading profile is known. That restriction would not be suitable for a potential FTSE 100 entrant, which by definition would require greater control and flexibility over its capital structure. It reminds me of a junior tier Balance Sheet, controlled by the banks, until you can ride the bike - so to speak.

The $6.3bn transfer to distributable reserves is the $4.8bn MR and the $1.5bn Share premium account, which will require the consent of the court to enact. This process significantly helps and increases HBR options in any future M&A. Its a VERY POSITIVE move and should be supported, plus it demonstrates the banks are now very comfortable with HBR's trading performance and are prepared to be very Accommodative in supporting HBR to the next level of corporate progression.

Hope that helps. GLA.

I agree SK, after the BP results beat and share rise - would have thought there would be a refocus on the dynamics of the TU next week. What a waste, ending up lower than last close. Very frustrating, clearly held down, especially with tolmount fully functional - extremely depressed. GLA

BGT & 1% Club big winners - self designed content - original. In the 60's and 70's UK TV imported US prog formats, now ITV exports all over the world - massive value. GLA.

B Tom, for the first time I totally agree your views about the conduct of the AGM, especially Bonham Carter misfire and too many BOD's, I don't agree sacking the CEO and I thought Baz was a clever Chairman in conducting the meeting tactically, very articulate indeed. I think they will approach the TU in a different manner and clearly lay out the investment case for ITVX, then it can be properly criticised. At least the appropriate questions of resignation etc were publicly vented and the hedge fund made his points clearly. It's a shame too many PI's at the meeting diverted attention away from the key issues. GLA, This will probably fall further as the TU approaches, I will add more at discount, finances seem solid and Q1 continued to show strong growth.

Pleebs - luz the insight - but get a check\ chunk - of the UN hedged - check the post- not hedged or am I wrong !!! . Please keep us updated on the tech insight invaluable. BP will announce a $25bn write down next week with Rosneft, Shell another write down - so Suni is playing along with the game. Can't tax a write down this year FF maybe future.

I have a condition - its not OCD - I see FLOWS of events, coalescence of economic consequences (Or Abbott Ale) and scream at the various outcomes - I'm refining the model & I'm working on it. What I don't see is a windfall Tax, a Tory porn tax maybe. HNY

Simples Rishi - Non porn tory can state U turn - when next week BP announces $25bn write of Rosnefff fff and Shell and others elsewhere - FFS we are at war and energy security is the KEY GOAL for all those winkers out there. IMO this about a Rebalancing of world energy Supply routes and the Ukraine horror show is sadly second in this quest. The US general quoted the other day stated to weaken Russia. What he did not say - not by weapons but by destroying a 'Garage Economy' gas Oil minerals - cut it off at the base - its disabled longer term. I hate whats happening yo the innocents its war crimes - the only way to stop a bully is by united aggressive economic opposition. GLA