Member Info for BaysilHope

Thx strong point as Banks reduce Global exposure to Oil/Shale it is great to see a UK Co PEEL - committed to support the UK energy sector - that with Ineos are beacons of light in troubled times and a very welcomed insight. I did remember my ALK friend Kenstaff mention things but this has moved on materially since then. Great news thx again. GL.

Really good news today EDR SP has languished in the Oil maelstrom but there are some company making (possible) deals due and the RNS register should cover 1. Obvious Penistone 3rd Wresstle test. 2. Europa should start drilling Kiln Lane - EDR 25% 3. Q1- A Prospect farm out news due Q1 - 150bcf gas = 27mboe 4. Biscathorpe planning decision Q1 5. 14 th Rd Onshore bids March end announcement - JV's abound = deals . 6. Laughton for drilling& North Kelsey after recent planning. IMHO enough activity to create interest in the SP. Looks like latest discovery is a quality one. GL

Both Wingfield & Ashover discoveries are approx 6m thick , the last Penistone layer is 19.8m hopefully this should boost the overall potential production and reserves. Union Jack & Europa shares up. Fingers crossed more good news to come. GL. Nice for this share to recover about time esp with lots more drilling in the pipeline Q1&2.

Signing off - What a possible game shifter for ALK & EDr Anybody's views? I'm off air now welcome any thoughts for the BB not me. Thx GL HNY. Can't stop signing Big John!.

Thanks M & the ALk BB for putting up with me. I'm quiet now - looking at 14th Rd. GL Thx for your patience. Signing off. Baz

I'm goodnight - but this is for the road ST Peter Don't you call me cause I can't go! - Enjoy - Tennesse Williams Some people say a man is made outta mud A poor man's made outta muscle and blood Muscle and blood and skin and bones mind that's a-weak and a back that's strong You load sixteen tons, what do you get Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go I owe my soul to the company store I was born one mornin' when the sun didn't shine I picked up my shovel and I walked to the mine I loaded sixteen tons of number nine coal And the straw boss said "Well, a-bless my soul" You load sixteen tons, what do you get Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go I owe my soul to the company store I was born one mornin', it was drizzlin' rain Fightin' and trouble are my middle name I was raised in the canebrake by an ol' mama lion Cain't no-a high-toned woman make me walk the line You load sixteen tons, what do you get Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go I owe my soul to the company store If you see me comin', better step aside A lotta men didn't, a lotta men died One fist of iron, the other of steel If the right one don't a-get you Then the left one will You load sixteen tons, what do you get Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go I owe my soul to the company store End Oz

Plasma is the fourth state of matter supposedly - Dark Energy dominates the mass of the Universe by nearly 3:1. And Yet Yorkshire/ Lancashire County council can stop fracking!! Where are we going - we don't understand the energy equation of the Univesre let alone the Fxxxing Grid Sweet Pea and some prick with a Multiple salary pension scheme +BMW is Jesus because noise levels a ta ta. Britain was great as an industrial powerhouse by embracing change not egos - I still cry at night at lack of genuine progress - the Romans had no planning in Scotland and Edward the 1st certainly didn't in Fxxxing Caerphilly 1287 the bastard. Good night.

Spot on - I knew one of their songs forgot the classic Up Up & away - times of hope - hands up you've won - & hopefully ALK will go the same way. Thanks for your time. Baz

Can't argue & I apologise that Bruce S (Big Fan) did write the song sorry for any offence - I like your choices - I'm looking at EDR pre 14th Rd for a while ( & Reserve Base Lending for proven Oil production) = OBV big impact ALK - the Wresslte 1 test only 1- 6m of 3 payloads & strong Drilling Q1 - so a stronger EDR is better all round & 'NOB' on the bloody Board FFS - so I'll go back to quiet for a while and leave you patient investors with GL & peace. ATB Baz. ALK a great company luv it to bits.

Just Listened to Paul Rogers Ex Free/Bad Co etc Why is this man NOT a Sir after the mediocrity of lacklustre recent drivel? Getting into ALK Investing plyaed -1. Wishing Well (with SLASH & Bad Co) is for a SP Blue Day and Paul Carrack (Minimum award must be MBE pun How Long? ) - is a RED day SP fall - the song ' If should fall behind wait for me' ( Better than Bruce Sp version IMHO) played when commodity prices crash. All I need now is patience. Discover the true essence of Dark Matter & we are away. GL HNY Spring will be here soon. Just remember matter is purely one state of energy E=Mc2- Big Bang stuff.

Short term Output Cold & calm - looks like the Nat Grid are smashing Coal output - tonight Matthew we are at +16GW norm 12GW for Coal - Wind down to 1GW - Limited running hours & 6GW of Coal retirement in 2015 may be let the Old girls have a last blast. I notice Sp firmin great having been in ALK longer term - great company needs more PR GL HTH all the best I had a slice at 21.8 still in the red though - I said postpone Valentines day jury out. As V said the cup shape SP starting other side - once momentum kicks we are at 30p no probs. HNY

My 2014 NBPT understanding from next 5 points and still can be wrong!!- 1. NOB webcast 21st Jan which said Post Carron group Normal Net Profit (1/2yr) Run rate £2.7m (incl Maltby back in) . 2. Full year - EDR share price falls to 14p - The exceptional calc on shale sale now 40m @ 14p = £5.6m less impairment £3.2m less Carron deal costs £0.9m Net Exceptional Profit £1.5m cont’n. Full year should be normal ALK 12 mths £1.7m (with 6mths full Maltby) plus post Carron £1.5m ish (6mths) = £3.2m EXcluding exceptional items (Normal PBT Run Rate 6 mths = £2.7m). So yes should be +£4.5-4.7m all in - to double check - Quote see highlights from NOB statement - 3.As per - there are a number of adjustable items in the 2014 results including the exceptional profit from the transfer of Alkane’s shale interests to Egdon Resources plc, offset by non-developed licence impairments and mark to market adjustments at the year end. There were also the deal costs of this and the Carron Energy transaction as well as a provision against the remaining outstanding debt from the TEG Group. After accumulating these adjustable items we are expecting a contribution of circa £1.5m from these items IN ADDITION to the adjusted profit before tax. 4. We had 29 calls under STOR in the last quarter of 2014 (last quarter of 2013: 66 calls). As a result adjusted profit before tax for the period is now expected to be between £3.25 - £3.5m. 5. Oilbarrel Quote Broker VSA Capital says that it expects revenue for 2014 to be c£18 million (some 14 per cent down on its forecast of £20.9m) and an adjusted PBT of £3.25- £3.5m around 16.7% – 22.6% below its predicted £4.2m. It was expecting PBT figures of £4m. Also exceptional items are likely to run out rather lower than anticipated at a net £1.5 million. This is largely due to including the 18% holding in Egdon Resources at the current price share price of 9.4p rather than at the time of the shale assets sale when it was 27.5p. HTH GL Agreed these results should have been SOLD more clearly and the over use of the word adjusted! The EDR share price will recover with Oil & Wresstle. I could well be wrong but this is my understanding, the point really it is not evidently clear to the investor. NB Mega +ve 2015 we are in the £2.7m+ 6 mth run rate = record 1st Half profits due 2015 £2.7m compared to depressed £1m Exc Exceptions plus 0.025p Divi in April my guess and Wind output now normal 2GW whilst demand +50GW good volume at +£52/mw SP must recover soon.

Excellent point - the word adjustable is used so many times hard to read. Poor ALK PR and communication - creates doubt= uncertainty depresses SP. I'll answer IMHO - remember the June 14 half year were eventually £1m underlying (little Maltby no Carron) and £6.8m net profit on sale to EDR shale ( £10m less £3.2m impairment charge). Full year test. see next post

Nat Grid 12:15am Demand 34.3GW Night Time Coal& Nuke unchanged 21GW Gas drops to 7GW Wind unchanged. NOB needs to buy some Wind as a counter measure. Baz

Can't sleep - 23: 20 UK Demand 38GW wind 1.8GW & GN 10 day forecast same...........

Check the website out - Love it 22:30 UK Demand 39GW - Coal still 13GW Nuke still 8GW Gas down to 11GW Wind 2GW France/Dutch3GW Other2GW - Luv the display - told the Mrs projected on the bedroom wall so I can work out ALK impact on a delayed 15min basis. Easy to see now the volatility in GAs generation and when wind is up double risk Base/Line and STOR hit NOB didn't communicate this risk side well - in fairness as the Power GEn configuration changes to more GAs & will be more 24/7 replacing Coal - its all about timing by 2016 we will be in a different stronger position - output mix being buffeted or bullied at the mo.. GN definite finish - Ken are you in bed? BAz

Last point - UK and German wind energy records drive down winter electricity bills . The cost of electricity in Europe plunged sharply last month as wind power generation hit new all-time highs in Germany and the UK, according to the latest data from energy information provider Platts. The Platts Continental Power (CONTI) Index fell 7.44% in January to €35.81 per megawatt hour (/MWh) compared to December 2014’s €38.69/MWh. The Index was down 11.12% compared to January 2014’s €40.29/MWh. Platts’ regional analysis of European power and gas markets in January revealed the following: • Germany: Day-ahead power prices averaged €29.15/MWh, down 13% from December and down 20% from January 2014. Wind output reached a new monthly record for a second month in a row, up 52% year-over-year at 9.44 terawatt hours (TWh), according to grid operator data compiled by Platts PowerVision . UK: Having fallen 7% in December, UK day-ahead power prices fell again in January, this time by 10% to £39.14/MWh. The year-over-year decline was 17%. Natural gas prices fell 14% from December and were down 29% year-over-year. The wind sector had its most productive month ever, generating 4.13 TWh, some 14% of UK electricity. The UK enjoyed weekly, monthly and half-hourly wind generation records exceeded as installed capacity topped 12 GW, according to trade association Renewable UK. The half-hourly record on January 2 saw wind supply 31% of Britain’s electricity demand. By late January, however, much colder, stiller weather conditions saw natural gas, coal and nuclear plant resume dominance of the generation mix as winter demand peaked at 53 GW. FYI HTH GN

In 2010 when ALK made profits £1.47m EPS 1.4p P/E ratio 10 SP 15p Net Assets £17m and Power prices 21% drop in 2010 to £44/Mw - we then grew invested and moved on since then. The problem for ALK in todays SP is the perfect storm impact IMHO- 1.Wind output growth - badly communicated by NOB must take blame - gas subsititution. 2. Mild winter warmest year since 1910. Oil crisis giving way to Nat GAs price deflation. 3.The Wind Output Priority in GAs Substitution by Nat Grid - The Swing Producer effect. 4. Delays in de-commissioning Coal - 6GW will close in 2015 and help ALK long term output growth 5. Badly communicated delays in scheduled capacity availability - Maltby dragged Wheldale/Shirebroke also and the Carron integration didn't help the results. 6. The Egdon SP Short Term effect & IGAS - the sector has taken a pounding with aggressive shorting and planning delays. 7. The Henderson Loan Conversion worry April 2015. 8. 14th Round still O/s no growth news CMM. 9. Net Profits will NOT GROW - we are cursed so to speak 2014 . AND WE ARE STILL AT 22p with a very realistic 2015 NPBT +£5.5m EPS 3.6p forward P/E of 6 - WADE IN FILL YOUR BOOTS as all these issues will be resolve themselves in the next 18months. Note in 2010 the SP moved on as Power rates and output recovered. HTH GL HNY. Great Company sorry if I've gone on - some points needed clearing.

We all know that - So this is the -ve side of wind - so to speak - Quote News Feb 15 - Electricity demand hits highest this winter - as wind power slumps to its lowest Power demand hit its highest level this winter on Monday, but wind farms met just one per cent of the UK's needs "It’s wrong to cherry-pick statistics for short periods when the wind didn't blow," wind industry body RenewableUK said. UK electricity demand hit its highest level this winter on Monday – while wind turbines generated their lowest output, official figures show. Cold weather saw UK demand hit 52.54 gigawatts (GW) between 5pm and 5.30pm, according to National Grid. At the same time, low wind speeds meant the UK’s wind turbines were producing just 573 megawatts of power, enough to meet only one per cent of demand - the lowest of any peak period this winter, Telegraph analysis of official data shows. Earlier on Monday wind output had dropped even lower, generating just 354 megawatts at 2pm, or 0.75 per cent of Britain’s needs – the lowest seen during any period this winter. The analysis will fuel concerns that despite receiving billions of pounds in subsidies, Britain’s wind farms cannot be relied upon to keep the lights on when they are needed the most. End - Note COAL is Cheap and output variation can't be regulated i.e turned down or up it is inelastic supply same Nuclear except planned maintenance or fires!! - so your daily Coal output is 13.5GW & the Nuke is +6.8GW every day 24/7 from these two sources - means GAS IS THE SWING PRODUCER see post 3. Baz ALK is IN between a hard rock of 24/7 inelastic aging fleet and an unstable bedfellow or Windy cousin that has government Green priority driven all over it -it can jump from 0.5GW to 7GW and Gas has to contract to allow this mother to be profitable. So Gas suffers always in a mild windy winter - until the 2015 planned Coal output is retired. HTH Explains in part ALK weak final quarter output demand substitution which I will half final figures tomorrow, lot of data. HTH GL

Hi Mags and all the ALK faithful. Been busy check out the New Media Info - UK National Grid Status Webpage Energy Generation Output sanity - to view today 21:00 Hrs UK Energy Demand Summary cockpit screen visual Total 46GW of which Coal 13.7GW Nuclear 8.2GW GAS (ALK) 17.4GW Wind 1.9GW France/Dutch 3GW Other 1.8GW. Note Market reaction and share price slide from 5th Jan 15 - see article - British Windfarms set new power production record Official National Grid figures show 43% of Britain’s homes were powered by wind last Sunday 5th Jan About 43% of Britain’s homes were powered by wind last Sunday. Figures for the National Grid figures showed that an average of 7.315GW of power was produced by windfarms, setting a new record for the UK. The previous record was 7.234GW. - ALK Last Quarter weak forgetting MW SP rate - see Wind impact 2nd Article. Wind power beats nuclear and coal in record-breaking August 1 September 2014 RenewableUK says new data shows that August was an exceptional month for wind energy, with new records set and generation levels exceeding both nuclear and coal, according to official National Grid statistics. On five separate occasions, wind overtook coal-fired plants for generation over a single day, the first time this has ever happened. Wind exceeded coal on the 3rd, 9th, 11th, 12th and 17th August. This strong performance continued towards the end of the month when onshore and offshore wind generated more than the nuclear fleet on the 29th August (5,805MW from wind compared to 5,379MW for nuclear). On 11th August, wind also set a new daily record when it provided 21% of the UK’s electricity needs. This was exceeded on 17th August when wind broke its own record, setting a new figure of 22%. Before August, the daily record stood at 20% set on 20th December 2013. This was also the best-performing August to date with total wind generation at 10%, which is close behind the 13% record set during December 2013. Renewable UK’s Director of External Affairs, Jennifer Webber said: “Wind energy is taking its place as the UK’s new powerhouse, overtaking coal and nuclear as one of the most important resources we have to keep Britain’s lights on. It continues to surpass its own records, and these figures prove that can happen at any time of year. As we approach autumn and winter, we can expect wind to maintain this strong performance and provide electricity when demand is especially high”. Notes: 1. In August, wind generated an average of 3,108MW compared with 5,426MW for coal, 6,534MW for nuclear and 11,443MW for CCGT. Post 1 Breath in deep pause. GL HTH