Member Info for BaysilHope

Lets Forget the trading update +£5m Net Profit full year 2015 + we own +18% of EDR with Wresstle update & the 14th RD DECC awards for both PEDL#s . I think we are being sold out here cheaply with a downgrade EDR SP jumped from simply 8p to 13 and forget Ofgem we fell - there is something not righty here I am going to enquire Why? Are we being sold cheap to the Yanks. Need this investigated. ALK trading on the button why this discount investigate. GL BAZ Cantor are Cheap dirty persons - ignore their profit positioning - long term great company Why would you down grade unless different agenda - FYI - I'm in ALK cause its a good business that's all. I would take it private myself and FXX Um

I am pleased - did call it some months back but is +£2m enough?? Still positive stuff though. GL.

EDR now 16p so there could be a fair valve uplift in ALK interims not a +£1m write down when 12-14p. Trading update 1st week July ish. 14th RD so close I can feel it - increase in CMM reserves mega likely and EDR pushes on. Wind farms subsidies cut, the Carbon tax on Coal has reduced coal % of generating by 1/3 look at the grid status tonight gas +41% - no wind and > Coal & Nuke combined. Strong cash flow, with flagging competition for our size and bloody OFGEM cocking it up. Plus Cuadrilla planning - is very very close, if that drops look out - Acquisition time by a long queue of patient vultures - and that takes me back - what a clever defensive move ALK having 40m EDR as a blocker and in the event - a premium would need to be paid - wishful thinking yes - shrewd business undervalued by the Market - sadly yes. HNY GN LCC can't hold out too long when Cuadrilla or whoever - are fully compliant in the eyes of the law - they then become victim of a counter claim and huge financial loss to the community - in hard cash and lost potential revenue from shale. Interesting times.

Sorry , the Cuadrilla application this month - is accused with ISIS levels of disruption suicide bombing of High decibel background noise +1% above NATO and a modern library and the imaginary traffic noise of a successful drill has forced me to buy EDR shares, because of dogma. As John Maynard Keynes said of economic forecasting - we're all dead in economic long term forecasts, remember the 1908 Air burst Meteor in Russia flattened 25k sqkm of forest and wildlife, had no planning permission, was not linked to fracking, nor mining just nature doing what she does -Grow up. HNY Its not the concept - it is the real lack of operational understanding - that kills me. End of GN

Last point ALK general trading statements are very Uber defensive - Catholic in appearance for the greater good obedience - naturally cautious understand but instead of focusing on the Collapse of Coal Power Gen industry & Blackouts) and a vision of a Freezing House on a blackout nigh people dying t!!) - ramp up the rhetoric on positive Power gen targets, efficiency technology get a market share 3 year vision go sexy - Capex - the vision - get out of this commercial straight jacket really expose the weakness of Wind/ Solar can't run Tata steel on either can you - forward PE ratio as of a tin of beans ex Ofgem . GL End of. For us shareholders - the company is truly great sell you qualities other less worthy are doing more unfortunately - sorry to sound off. I'm in for the long term. Really GN sounded off.

Sorry last point 2014 Gearing 41% Ex CLN on Net Assets £44m = £18m Net Debt . Forecast H! 2015 debt repaid from cash say down to £16m, Net Assets up with Profits +£3m and CLN conversion+£2m exclude EDR a second NA £49m - so gearing H1 32%. So Add +£30 new facilities - new Debt £46m - less than 100% gearing even if EDR holding fair value SP fell - -£1-2m no probs = especially with our H2 profits again +£2.5m gives EBITDA = Captain America for longer term debt . So not stupid idea but the potential profits after such +£30m investment insane (Ex Shale). We need to grow a pair. GL I'll shut up.

Slight exagg#n - ALK are very lucky, high cash generator even in depressed Mkt conditions, low gearing, even lower with the Henderson conversion+ £2m, demands on money after the crazy 3 year debt repayment stuff, A plethora of mines being closed (Unfortunately but govt designed Cardon tax April & Power plant closures - so CMM options upto your knees next 2 years), Takeover targets - . EDR 14th Rd Oppos, ALK 14th Rd oppos - existing STOR Capacity Mech 3 years Capex 46MW or whatever - I would refinance my fleet of 27 operating units and Capitalise on the Leven contract - NPV could raise +£6m long term easy on the eye repayment on just Leven - aim for +£20m war chest Ex Placing even consider 'Reserve Base Lending' Anyone options with CMM proven reserves and delivery model !!!!!! - get gearing a comfortable +125% ( Not 30% H1 15ish) & elongate debt repayments - as Troy Tempest said anything could happen in the next half hour - ALK needs to go nuclear - and use its cashflow as a commercial weapon it has an enviable resilient cash firepower don't treat it commercially as a debt fire extinguisher. GN GLA

I would like to ask the new FD - knowing NOB is Ex Coopers ICAEW - Why are you repaying debt shorter than your asset value/ Deletion rate revolving facility - straining cashflow, there's little DCF Debt covenants and you have the CMM reserves and you're curbing future investment and limiting acquisitions by being Uber Prudent - that growth could be fuelled by cash and debt and preserve equity- Where you had had to go to the market 2014 No need now . If you communicate that the next 2-3 years growth are organic should come from that - HNY unless - ALK needs more marketing and more depth analysis instead of Blackout pictures - need a marketing team - GO National beyond N York Post with in depth analysis. GL.

Quote News Carbon floor price hike will trigger UK coal slowdown, say analysts 'Doubling of UK carbon tax expected to force coal plants to switch off, as EU emissions trading system hits 2020 target six years early. Coal-fired power plants are set to be taken offline this year as a result of the doubling of the UK’s top-up carbon tax on Wednesday, according to market analysts. The carbon floor price went up from £9.54 to £18.08 per tonne of CO2, raising the cost of a tonne of carbon for British power plants to £23, when allowances on the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) are factored in. The carbon floor price was designed to set a minimum price, related to emissions from fossil fuels, which would rise annually and encourage manufacturers to switch to greener fuels. It was introduced in 2013. The news came as new figures released by the European commission on Wednesday showed that greenhouse gas emissions covered by the EU’s emissions trading scheme fell by 21% compared to 2005 levels last year, meeting a watershed target set for 2020 six years ahead of schedule. Market experts believe the hike in the UK carbon floor price should be enough to force fuel switching from coal to gas – a key aim of carbon pricing – unless gas prices now rise substantially. “We would expect to see reduced running hours for UK coal power plants from this summer,” Yan Qin, a market analyst at Reuters Thomson Point Carbon told the Guardian. The agency believes that up to 20 TerraWatt hours (TWh) of coal generation could be replaced by gas, with uncertainty about new EU industrial emissions rules next year spurring early action. Drax, the largest coal-fired power plant in the UK produced 26.2 Twh of electricity in 2013. “The rise in the floor price is putting additional pressure on coal-fired assets for sure,” said Dirk Forrister, the president of the International Emissions Trading Association. The Point Carbon analysis was backed by Lakis Athanasiou, a utilities analyst at Agency Partners LLP, who told the Bloomberg news agency that “coal plants will be not only running less, they’ll be switching off. Some operators will even think of mothballing for the summer.” The drop in greenhouse gas emissions in Europe occurred despite Europe’s GDP rise of 1.3% last year. A warm winter helped push industrial emissions down 4.9% in 2014 to 1,814m tonnes, two million tonnes below the target. End - With the closure of coal Longanet & Ferrybridge Gas goes first - despite the depressed prices - volumes gains win - & ALK has Acquisitions options CMM up its sleeve- watch the debt reduction in the July trading update and the future for the 14th Rd - Ofgem a memory very soon and more growth. GH GL What a time to be a new 40 year old FD give the gun boyo.

Reply Ofgem 21st May - IMHO - 'Suspicion is a heavy armour and with its weight it impedes more than it protects'. Robert Burns - fingers crossed and onwards to better times - Neil OB and former Stevie G were mega cautious & so on - we don't need this OFGEM cloud with the 14th Rd due end next month as a guess. Lets see the young FD get stuck in and resolve . GL. We are NOT GREEN FROG!

See DECC Award spread sheet on web - Quote - ALK 2x 2MW Diesel Containerised Generating Sets. Bevercoates 2 - Energy Park - West Drayton Avenue - Bevercotes - Nottinghamshire - DN22 8DB. Auxiliary load subtracted prior to the metering point - in hindsight slapped wrist - but NOT awarded. All other sites are in production as my pre post and new easily proved. GN GL Hate to see this good company tainted short term - esp when you look at Green Frog. IMO GN

Forgive untidy - 5th Jan 15 T4 results Nat Grid - protest is diesel farms ALK did apply for Diesel gens in Bevercotes see below but were turned down in the award - sorry/ mess. T-4 Capacity Market Auction 2014 Alkane Group Bevercotes 2 & Newmarket 2 NO AWARD New Build Generating CMU 3.9mw - Provisional Auction Results - Gov.UK https://www.gov.uk/.../Provisional_Results_Report-Ammendment.pdf 'Diesel farms' to face Ofgem inquiry over data supplied to win contracts Five power generators, which supply National Grid at peak periods, face inquiry into planning consents provided at ‘capacity’ auctions A Green Frog ‘diesel farm’. Photograph: Green Frog Terry Macalister, energy editor. Energy regulator Ofgem has opened an investigation into five power companies that took part in the government’s first “capacity market” auction designed to keep the lights on at peak demand. Three of the firms have links to Green Frog, a Birmingham-based business which has been involved in a “diesel farm” boom that has angered environmentalists and frustrated politicians. The watchdog is scrutinising the actions of GF Power Peaking, Berangere and Adret, all of which have Green Frog links, as well as Alkane Energy and Power Balancing Service. The companies obtained contracts of up to 15 years in the December auction to provide extra electricity-generating capacity from 2018 on the basis that they would use existing generation or be building new sites. “Ofgem has opened investigations to see if five generators provided false or misleading information to National Grid about planning consents for some of their proposed generating units that took part in the December 2014 capacity auction,” the regulator said in a statement. “The opening of these investigations does not imply that we have made any findings about non-compliance,” Ofgem said of the review, which centres on whether planning consents were obtained. Green Frog declined to comment, while Alkane Energy said it “does not believe it is in breach of the Capacity Market Rules and will fully cooperate with Ofgem’s investigation.” Power Balancing Service could not be contacted. The move came as the National Grid warned that the gap between expected power demand and supply would remain “very, very tight” – particularly during the winter after next. Steve Holliday, the chief executive of the National Grid, expressed renewed concerns 24 hours after SSE announced plans to close the 1,000 megawatt power station at Ferrybridge in West Yorkshire next year. SSE’s move was not a total surprise, he said, but it “absolutely does” point up the fact that old coal-fired and nuclear generating capacity was being taken off the system while not enough new generation was being built. See T-4 Capacity - we are not in default for diesel. GL

1. Check out DECC Excel STOR bid spreadsheet ALK listed project by project - all relate to proven existing producing sites with planning and capacity for growth - just need capex -unlike others XXX can't say see list - who where denied certain for over ambitious capacity claims, no planning no XXXX. 2 . NOB is Former Coopers & Lybrand Chartered Accountant - what a firm say no more. 3.The 14th Rd Bid is Work in progress and under review by DECC & is worth - x 100 times more reward potential with EDR than the STOR contract - no commercial justification to rig the vote. 4. ALK & DECC 16 year relationship of strong trust and delivery of PEDL covenants. 5. ALK is a front line power generator with proven assets just invested £12m on an acquisition now - to rig £14m over 15 years gain (don't make sense) different to a young made up fast as you go outfit - looking at the gravy train outsourcing matters to JSxxx. End - Agree with JD what an opportunity to step in and cover the bid failures. IMHO DYOR - ride out the storm, I could be wrong but I trust Neil & the BOD - I'll be looking to top up soon. So in their selection to review - they have to test ALL successful bid winners - so no come backs to DECC (unfair trial) & could after all - show ALK in very favourable light and more oppos . DYOR IMO Caveat Emptor etc etc GL

I said a thank you to Stuart incorrectly - confused with the RNS and probably offended the retiring party. Sorry Steve G, I do apologise and as a shareholder thank you for all your efforts in what has been a transformational year and more importantly getting a fledgling business afloat on the AIM - can't say no more - I couldn't attend the AGM without your contribu no shareholder oppos. for us mid life youngsters gratefully appreciated & thx - any tips I'll email you. Baz Thx GN

1. Firstly Congrats to the new teen FD Mr Carl Stuart Kameen 41 - does this mean is change in risk profile? & stronger risk attitude towards debt for expansion?? To be fair Stuart has done a wonderful job - Thxs on his making way - top man. 2. I think IMHO the ALK SP is depressed partly because of the potential Fair Value adjustment to the EDR share holding in June Interims. At point of sale May 2014 EDR SP was 26.25p at year end down to 14p ish initiating a £5m write down impairment charge2014 A/cs - at EDR SP 8p could be a further £2m write down - in June half year wiping out the great 'REAL CASH' performance - as FV adj are transitory when you hold the share for commercial long term operational synergy gains and not as an idle investment linked to supporting debt - which is not the case here. Debt covenants do not depend on the EDR SP value for breach. 3. Further SP depression - possible Henderson CLN conversion overhang 13m shares - this is done now so ALK Net Assets up £2m and interest costs saved +£140k p.a allows an increase in the overall company debt facility. Very few SME companies can borrow for Cap ex over 3 years such as the Maltby loan - firstly cashflow has to be humongous and secondly the EBITDA servicing covenants WOW . With the sharp repayments of debt next 9-12 months - CLN done and gap left for 14th Rd PEDL bid - Debt falls - I think IMHO ALK could be of a size then with cash in hand - to swallow something like Harworth Power Gen with cash & increased debt facility debt and still keep the Capacity Mech 46mw capex online (It could not possibly consider such a deal - 3 years ago 2012 when Harworth sold it for £20m to Capital Dynamics 26MW base load +£5m Rev +£2.5m Profit- it was 3 years to early for ALK) - It is a wild guess and only my opinion but I'm saying those type of oppos are out there - & that has 5 collieries mind you - and that's forgetting South Wales oppos and Shale - this share is ridiculously cheap with massive expansion options despite the MW £ headwind - DYOR - IMO as a businessman first not a shareholder. Look 3 years forward imagine ALK/EDR hit shale and EDR SP is plus £1.50 a share - the dynamics are there then the FV adj +£50m up on top of profits circa £15m NPBT. Finally - given the Oil/GAs economic background - NOB would have been very very prudent in 2014 with the market sXXX attitude - to protect the accounts - so any -ves could be reviewed in the light of over prudent reserving. GN GL HNY. Last point ALK 18% of EDR Net Assets is £6.5m in cold Net Assets pre 14th RD and that will only grow especially if Wresstle turns into a production animal more than doubling EDR output and generating cash. - which it will IMHO.

Thx - the horse was going to be put down humanly through injury (originally raised in an allotment) but it shows with faith determination management ( and from a seriously injured horse mind you to recover and grow! with love good management) you get a gold cup winner - say no more. Thanks - I know I rabbit way too much but.. I will now shut up after last of the CLN is converted - forward and onward. - maybe no more placings for a while. GL GN HNY. When all is said and done this company's Net profit per sales & EDITDA will be as sexy as Fxxk! end

Alkane Energy 2014 – the story. 1. Capex £18m - +58MW of Acquired capacity – can forecast this growth rate in 5yr future view. 2. Acquisition Integration – 6 mths to unify increased 58MW capacity into ALK grid 3. Sold Shale earned 18% of EDR plus access to their gas to wire opportunities & shale upside but the +£7m Profit - would have covered - but MM’s & weak MW/hr pricing. 4. Secured £8m of equity placing 5. Hit 14Rd Onshore bid Deadline with Carron pre- acquired future affordability audit in a strong bid plus aligned with EDR 6. Hit Capacity auction bid deadline with 101MW of STOR post Carron acquisition critical mass - won £14m cons for 46MW new build. Key primary 2014 drivers (As Above) for 2014 were always going to hit earnings but I thought profit on shale disposal £7m would compensate – my error wrong - SP smashed. With so much operational ground to cover in all directions – 2014 IMO Ex profits slip - Business Gen Capacity wise was a fantastic achievement - Profits halt = todays SP - makes this a very cheap. Note ALK & EDR have postponed Capex projects in H2 2015 to make way for the 14th Bid Results and then 2nd phase PEDL land deals/swaps post bid– next 3 mths will set resources stall for the next 5 yrs IMHO, game changer in reserves. I can’t help it I’m a fan – in the past 5 yrs + 50% of ALK Capex came from own cash flow Phase 1 – Phase 2 equity placings to supplement earnings– capex was originally invested only to renew not going forward to profit gain. Phase 3 – Now ALK Own Cash + Expanding Debt Options – Post Carron – can allow earnings to can go forward, with est 2nd product STOR and critical Generating mass achieved to deliver – Debt options available to grow earnings with no placing/dilution. So I disagree I doubt NOB played much Golf in 2014-5 Firstly +£12m Carron- 4 mths & EDR disposal 4 mths, 14th RD Bid jointly with EDR & legals for equity placing - 2 months, Capacity bid STOR DECC £14m win, New 58MW integration into ALK grid & future planning 2016 would have sucked up all time + NED on EDR BOD – what a man and only earning £260k. Yes the SP is a mess – totally accept that but so are others – we are at a bottom with +ve growth oppos for ALK- this SP must recover if it can overcome past let downs and truly deliver on Profit growth despite the hurdles (Is this a new Dream Alliance! horse - pun) – that’s the risk. GN GL.

As per 5 yr - conventional research only - no shale no CBM to fuelling generators nor any EDR Shale windfall - Christ this business could be really & very cheap but has to earn the right. GN HNY. Let's get this election out of the way UK bankrupt Councils & Govt need UK Onshore clean resources for income jobs investment and reduce Public cuts - we can earn away some of the UK Debt being intelligent not blinkered and care for the enviro - common sense balance. Balance the books in some way. Watched too much TV sorry. end

5 yr Forecast - In the next 4.1/2 years I'm trying to get peace of mind establishing whether ALK can hit 400MW Base & STOR Generating capacity fuelled by Capex+ £80m from Cash EBITDA and flexible elongated debt - with No placings or dilution other than for windfall exceptional opportunities and keeping GEARING honest. Could be a Different business - not impossible - the opportunities as I said are out there (Minimum 5 areas to explore) - key is look at CMM producers not upgrading to STOR options in the Capacity auction - by definition their forward options are more limited (as depletion ensues) especially with Mine Closures and the reparation capex better suited to a Mini Utility so ALK is fantastically positioned to consolidate the minor market operators - whilst contracting STOR 15 year out. Key is earnings growth fuelled by responsible debt expansion. The company has latent cash gen oppos (Debt possibilities) in the Balance Sheet - Take P & M Fixed Assets with a NBV £33m - of which is assigned to debt £7m - so there is potential for a sale and leaseback to raise +£10m now (Plus EDR holding is collateral to reduce Debt service covenants and allow ALK to borrow more with that as security) Next year if EBITDA stacks up + cash from oppos is accumulated - then Acq time H1 2016. IMHO - this is and only can be guess work. Good fun.

Sorry sounded arrogant 5 yr forecast - what I meant was how !? Growth will come from 5 main routes - 1. Conversion of existing pipeline projects 4 thereof say 8MW including Markham Main Carlow etc 2. STOR New capacity Mech 2015-18 46MW new build mainly STOR capacity - 3. 14th Rd Onshore Bid results - maybe existing CMM sites with P & P etc guess 5mw per year 4-5 years growth. 4 New CMM Base Load Takeover 2016 Target A with +20MW with closing Collieries+40MW STOR possibilities bolted on depleting assets and so on - Target Spend +£20m can do no placing. 5 Nat gas to wire think of Three Nooks with ALK 0.8MW starter & EDR - in time huge growth with long term slower depleting assets maybe be at maybe a lower margin but balanced books with EDR . H1 Results are crucial ALK needs to deliver Profits - depletion and lost forward profits have strangled debt assisted growth - Loans had to be short term like the 3 year now stupid - Leven power has changed the mix IMHO 10 year contract guaranteed income which you can borrow against when integrated into the ALK system and strengthening with the 46MW Capacity £0.9m subsidy - if ALK can elongate debt form 3 to 5 years and longer - it can fund ambitious growth with no need for equity placing - no further SP dilution. Have not run the numbers i.e EDITDA/Debt servicing cost - Capex and so on. Could be a brave new world. Will post in a few weeks. GN