18.7 times current $114.80 Brent price at close Dow and Nasdaq had a bit of a rally Will be interesting to see if She’ll moves back closer to 30MA tomorrow - it must literally be generating a ton of cash this quarter and will have CV plenty in reserve to meet its WFT share buy back and dividend obligations so I’m expecting debt to fall further which should de risk business and maybe help make it more attractive to the pension funds and other PIs maybe?
Thanks bigpunt really useful The robustness of second hand car values will of course weaken at some point and that could lift impairment if used as de facto security for loans I need to immerse myself in detail of annual reports but really appreciate your comments
Cheers Theborn I’m really wrestling with buying more at 206 which seems a break up valuation but am concerned the market knows something I’m missing as if the results are in any way poor the shares could tank but I’m already in to tune of £9K plus for 3000 shares so easily £3K out of the money so it’d be a case of doubling down risking a further £6K or £15K which is a pretty big poker hand for a rookie investor like me but what a rush if the shares recovered and ended up at £5
GLA and hoping for upbeat statement in July then fingers crossed
You are wise - worthy of your name and I’m guilty of not diversifying but gambling energy sector and SP could still spike
I lost my direction when I abandoned my achieving profit goal when shares hit £24.50 and bought on way down lastly at 2042 so I’ve pared back my potential gains but have bought for yield also and will hold until the shares start to hit resistance largely due to OP or interest rates on risk free money narrowing the gap with yield.
GLA and of course DYOR but there’s good info and useful analysis on this BB particularly from Boyobach that I refer to as I’m really a novice despite my advancing years and frequently make rookie errors so it’s good to see what people who know what they’re doing say.
Brent futures at $113 so we are back to just under 19x OP in Sterling terms for the SP at 2108 I need to understand the factors affecting OP better as a way of anticipating further possible fall in SP but would tend to follow the other wiser investors on this BB and accumulate small parcels of shares c £20 - £21 price range with a view to selling if SP hits £24.50 which was the trigger point I was due to sell at but stalled due to Capital Gains tax considerations not being sure if buy back in 30 days cancels the liability
RE: Bought at 2042 and still falling like a stone19 Jun 2022 17:59
I’m like minded enough to want to add at this level though it will increase my average holding cost since most of my holding was bought around £13-£14 so I’m just a bit losses I didn’t trade a few out at £24 as was about to hit the button having more or less achieved my short term profit goal but hindsight as they say and dare I admit I got greedy!!
RE: Bought at 2042 and still falling like a stone18 Jun 2022 11:53
Wise words I chose not to cash in a very decent profit in the hope of even larger gains (greed got the better of me) do was literally blindsided by the rate of fall in SP Added to which as Boyobach observed I started to buy (though fortunately small amounts) before the falling knife stopped quivering after hitting the parquet floor! Suffice to say I’ll hold on for the dividend as the yield is now 4% and rising if current policy is maintained and see how the buyback influences debt reduction and number of shares in issue and will be very happy if the shares were to recover to £22-£24 min the next 6-9 months. GLA and DYOR as usual
Bought at 2042 and still falling like a stone17 Jun 2022 16:25
Small amount to average down recent purchases but feeling very sheepish over missed the sentiment that’s dumped £2.25 plus off share price in two days though relationship to oil price is being maintained more or less
Thanks Theborn a £1 jump would be just fine I’ll think carefully and consider adding but just wondered where you got info they’re announcing some results next month as I don’t seem to be able to find any intel?
But just 100 as to be honest I don’t know where the bottom will be - will top up a final amount if they hit £20 at which point I might just say WTF didn’t I sell at £24 but that’s why I’m not a millionaire.
Boyobach will probably have an insight into how the SP might behave from the charts given the sharpness of the recent fall.
Yes I’ve read a lot of negative comments about Shell dividend policy including cynical observations that it hasn’t spared them from the tender mercy of the Tory WFT which has been latterly criticised by SSE as a disincentive to investment though that argument is well rehearsed.
I missed the dip and see Shell had a good bounce off recovery in Brent but it may go down again in which case I’ll top up albeit my notion of target price is outdated now having seen the share above £10 more than I paid for my core but not additional holding
Boyobach multiple has slipped to 19 so I am guessing some other factors weighing negatively on SP - government looking into forecourt prices might be cover for further confiscatory moves against big oil including Shell Johnson administration doesn’t care about climate change just getting re elected by useful idiots but that’s me being paranoid perhaps do as always DYOR GLA I’ll hold but probably not add even at these levels until I see some evidence market is stabilising which sadly won’t be for sometime now as there’s a lot of negativity around inflation and interest rates which is of course bad news for equities
Government investigation into Energy Markets13 Jun 2022 11:10
Half wit minister will throw red meat to voters by suggesting its oil majors exploiting public as a way of levying more from them. Market as a whole down - haven’t checked OP but that could be why Shell 2270 currently
Pausing to consider whether to buy some more but uncertainty over government intervention is making me wary
I got in and out of CNA and made a very small amount due to not buying sufficient quantity but despite it entering FTSE I’m concerned about headwinds for company and restrained dividend policy following WFT so exited and am buying back into Shell on any sign of weakness - GLA and as always DYOR
Boyobach I concur but equally Shell cash generation over the past two quarters in particular will see a robust reduction in debt alongside a share buyback policy which will boost PI share of company and reduce its dividend bill ultimately and hopefully increasing scope for a progressive dividend policy and more alignment with its peers so I’m hoping that over the next 12-24 months SP will outperform in the sector and vindicate my decision to hold - thanks as always for your technical analysis