Member Info for BarkingCrazy

The problem is folk are still selling (strange I know) and so the SP is being held back. I can only assume it's impatience or still a slight element of doubt about flow rates and undefined timescales ahead.

There must be a large sell in the background supplying this stock below mid. Hopefully this will clear soon so we can move up.

Theres some shocking weather coming in Friday on South coast with winds of 70 - 80mph. Is it possible they will wait to spud until after this passes?

You little tease Iceburg.

The reason this SP isn't moving north at the moment is because it's all about potential at the moment and actual cash flow positive revenues are some way off.
101 may potentially produce 400 bopd if water injection works
104 may potentially produce 5000 bopd if they hit sweet spot and well goes according to plan.
Vanji may be reached by 104

There are many positives to potentially look forward to but it's going to take time and folk get bored and look elsewhere. HUR and RBD offer greater rewards in the short term and so the money hunts quicker returns before coming back.
The AAOG story could have been so different if the rig was up to the job instead we have spent loads of money and ended up with a well that will probably at best produce 700 bopd to which we only get 56%(subject to any new deals re licence) I have no doubt the SP would be mid to high 20's and showing continued strength if Djeno had been fully encountered and able to produce from but sadly that now seems to be some months ahead.
There are risks ahead however hopefully we will come good but it's going to take time. In the meantime a good licence deal and updated CPR would be useful.
I kind of wish we were not looking at new acquisitions I far rather they stuck to getting their current acreage producing thousands of barrels a day first.
Theres going to be alot of challenges over the coming months / years but long term I think the rewards will be worth it.

Aimster you forgot to mention the risk of Tsunami, after all they are on the coast!!

May even be really unlucky and get hit by a meteorite.

So much could go wrong, but then again it might not!!

Still Red though!!

Just walked down to the beach just to east of Bognor to wave to the rig going by.
Actually couldn't see it as it was to far off shore and its a bit merky but waved for luck anyway.
Last time I did that it was the Ocean Guardian on its way to the Falklands and that found the massive Sealion discovery so it worked then!!

Yet again so much expectation and then folk left deflated when very little materialises. Face it this is going to hover at these levels for some time. It will come good but not anytime soon.

At least no shocks but nothing to exciting either. Bit of a muted response at the mo.

Lets hope he doesn't mumble like he does on the podcasts or no one will have a clue what hes on about.

Why can't this share ever hold onto it's gains!!

The reason the SP is stuck here right now is that Djeno is not going to flow from 103C and the target has not been fully tested.
We have spent ages and loads of money trying to get down to Djeno with some crappy drill. Anyway onwards and upwards but we have to go through the whole cycle again with 104, and that my friends is months away and fundraising all over again.
Was hoping Dry January was going to be over with a few bottles of bubbly but more like a pint of mild and bitter now with the Champers put on ice for later!!

So heres my take for what it's worth. Clearly some folk got wind of an RNS was about to drop this morning as the SP did a sharp about turn from red to blue and volume picked up at an impressive rate.
So sure enough up pops the RNS with Djeno results and the SP goes into overdrive as folk panic buy without really digesting the content.
In retrospect the rig has clearly not been up to the job and has struggled to the extent that this drill has taken so much longer than it should. It appears it got to the point that in order to save the well they have had to stop sooner than they wanted to which has left some questions unanswered. This is such a shame as I feel we may have been able to drill deeper with a better rig and then be able to produce from the Djeno zone from 103C. That would have been truly transformational for AAOG from TODAY. Substantial revenues would be earnt in a relatively short timeline and further funding would be less dilutive.
However once the dust had settled and the realisation that Djeno would not be flowed from this well it became apparent that timescales were going to be pushed quite a bit before we start to make some serious Wonga. Sure revenue will come from Menjo and the R zone but quite a bit less than Djeno would have produced. So the selling started and short term holders and traders bailed not being prepared to wait for the inevitable greater rewards at a later date. Next few months are going to be a bit up and down, sourcing a rig, topside upgrade and some form of further fund raise together with bringing 103C and 101/102 (injection) online and hopefully confirmation of extended licence with greater %.
Make no mistake todays news was good but it wasn't a blow your socks off RNS more of a light blue touch paper and wait till later. If you've got the patience and don't need the money anytime soon then hold or even buy as it's a no brainer and another plus is no need to set alarm for 7.00am RNS every morning for quite a while.

So short term traders and small % profit takers are exiting right now. This has now become a safe medium to long term hold. Going to take a while now to get Mengo producing, de mob the rig and then source a better one. In reality can see it being this time next year before 104 gets drilled.
However the RNS hints that they suspect further discoveries lower in the Djeno and can see 104 being the ultimate drill that releases true value. Suspect the SP will level out in the high teens in near future but anything can happen and who knows we may receive a bid.

Thats 39feet deep and the size of reservoir could be enormous as Djeno is being produced from over 20km away so can't see it running out anytime this century.

RNS would be nice!!

So heres a supposed reply received by a known bear of AAOG from DS and posted on another BB.

We are very close to releasing the results. The drilling has been slower then expected due to pressures, but ultimately it is the results that count.

Now if this is genuine I take the last sentence as quite encouraging.

Not sure what to think of todays price action. Wheres Strongman he normally likes to provide a comment or two?
Must admit to being slightly more nervous than I was last week when large buys were propping up the SP.
Seftons tweet reply could be taken either way if genuine "he says they are very close to releasing results and will do so once they are certain of the results! . So is that certain of results (loads) or still drill trying to find something/anything

Is there a chance they have decided to conduct wire logging before informing market this time. Would make for more informed reading and hopefully if good have better impact on S P. and also explain delay.