Member Info for Bamps21

Hi Peter
I hope you have a great Xmas, I know you deserve it.
I hope everyone on here has a good time and a prosperous New Year
ATB:))

Hi everyone
Hope you all have a good Xmas and a prosperous New Year
Off now to put some weight on :))

Hi neon
Thanks for re-posting last years presentation there's so much in it.
About the SWP Leo said we have about 12 opportunities and we have others wanting to take part
About Goudron Leo says " Goudron still has some enormous opportunities isn't that right James. He is our geologist and he knows all the wells inside out"
About infrastructure Leo says that there is no separation tank on Bonasse and that you cannot sell oil with even 1% water content.
ATB:))

Hi Harel
I can see why your English is poor. I've been called worse things than clueless.
You've again posted inaccurate statements with no credibility of where you obtained that nonsense

Hi Harel
Can you provide the evidence that the market values reserves at your price of $3. I've been in oil stocks a longtime and I've never come across any figure
I still believe you don't know the difference between oil in the ground and recoverable P1 reserves

Any sell figure would include all the oil in the ground including the contingent value
This is the time I shall reply on this subject but please get your facts right and backed up before posting that figure again

Hi Harel
You say your English is poor so I will give you the benefit of the doubt but you seem quite adamant about the $3 .
I don't think you read my reply to you previously
$3-4 would be a fair price for Stooip oil in the ground if you could find a seller at that price
To say that $3 is a fair price for recoverable reserves is totally daft, who would sell at that price. I'm sure if you offered Leo that he would show you the door.
Our Pmean is 77m oil in the ground at $3 this is way over $200,000,000 and there's a good chance of more reserves

I suggest you look at the presentation that Neon posted this morning bit old 2018 , but one of Leo's best.
Even Ukog are getting £15-18 per barrel for recoverable reserves even with the UKs taxes
Cerp are in a unique position with that payback
My belief when investing is research research research
I'm still researching this share as much as I can.
According to that presentation there are other firms willing to participate on the SWP but a good result from Saffron will certainly give Leo a good hand in any negotiation
ATB:))

Hi LLL
That's a bit of a wide statement from you. I haven't mentioned what the effects of the spt tax has on other licenses just what is happening at Goudron.
As far as I know from the Prd news is that the spt will have a limited effect with the CO2 injection on Innis

Hi LGO, Peter
My posts are a bit conservative with a little c but I'm only basing it from a NAV point of view. NAV is an investment guide to the health of a company and investment houses use them a lot and won't invest on sentiment alone.
I'm probably guilty of being more enthusiastic on Cerp than most posters but I am realistic I think.
My take on Saffron hasn't changed from when they issued the presentation.
I think their going to achieve a huge increase in reserves than the P50 mean of 77m as they haven't allowed for the Upper layers .
The recoverable barrels of 11.5m should increase as well and with $50 revenue per barrel to Cerp we could have :-
11.5mx $50=$575,000,000 asset plus the additional
Some posters have criticised that optimism and suggested it should be:-
11.5m x $4-$8 =$70,000,000
Whatever figure it is it will raise our NAV value considerably:))

Just imagine going for the next target and it is the 400m one . Wow that will spike the price
ATB:))

Morning Peter
It's a bit different to what I normally get called :))
The share price we have at the moment is probably slightly lower than what the asset value suggests. The 2 main producing assets at this present time are just ticking over Goudron and Innis. Finncap' 4.9p for core producing assets is far too high, the spt tax is dampening enthusiasm for Goudron production.
The water flood needs to start producing and the CO2 to be effective, so I'm guessing at 3-6 months for those but a spike might come with news that it the CO2 is working in early January.
The Saffron news on any success will also spike the price , but the extended flow tests could take 6-8 weeks to finalise

Before an 8p base line to occur we need those items to occur.
I've no idea how any spikes will effect the sp
ATB:))

Hi LGO
Am I on the Honours list, a knighthood be good Xmas present:))

I think the Finncap breakdown needs updating
The 4.9p Trinidad core assets was issued prior to the placing and share issues to contractors, so the Nav value has to be lower( net assets minus liabilities divided by shares in issue)
To get back to the 4.9 core asset value 2 things need to happen .First the water flood needs to start producing to increase the recoverable reserve asset. Second the CO2 project needs to succeed , again to increase the recoverable reserves.

Recoverable reserves are given a % of the oil in the ground reserves, by increasing the % of recoverable barrels by injecting water or CO2 increases the recoverable assets making the NAV increase.

Finncap have only given a contingent value to Suriname which is only a retail guide , we need the EWT to start to find exactly what reserves are there. By the Summer this should be known and have a positive effect on the NAV value and the sp

Hope I have explained that ok
ATB:))

The Nav chart on the presentation shows:-
4.9 p core producing asset
2.9p Saffron risked
= 7.8p
Core assets news needed
News on water flood Goudron
CO2 news

Saffron to move from risked to unrisked we need:-
Good flow rates
Reserve/asset update
CPR report on reserves

All this news to get to the base figure of 7.8p is getting closer and closer in my opinion
Also expecting good rises on news but the base should end up around 8p

There's another 4.4p on unrisked Saffron.
This should include CPR report, increase in infrastructure for full production and the classification of the reserves from the P50 mean to P1 reserve
This should take us to 12.2p by this time next year without anything for Suriname or any contingent value
All in my own opinion
Have a good Xmas everyone looking forward to a busy year
ATB:))

Hi troubles
Most of Malvern flea market stuff comes from Serrells auction, loads of boxes underneath full of stuff but he's upped the commission and minimum sell price.
If you want to make money open an auction centre
21.5%+vat both ways £5 catalogue £5-10 lotting fees, photos fees, storage, insurance
Big rip off
I went to Clevedon auction and saw a drum table go for £235,000 that's c£35000 sell commission and £35000 buy commission.glad I didn't buy it.
ATB:))

Hi troubles
That was a good find, were they silver. Too many dealers round here in silver.
I like the Ross on Wye auction in the cattle market bidding starts at a pound, all the lots are in the pens, got no idea what the auctioneer is saying :))
Best quality auction is at Prinknash, very good stuff.
ATB:))

Hi troubles
How did you get on with your on line auction the other day. Was this cars or antiques.
Serrels auction is near me, he had one yesterday, piled high very congested
ATB:))

Hi neon
I think he talked about it when that slide of the capex came up
The capex slide breaks down the items for each year and clearly shows the cost requirements for each year
The plans must be fairly large for the Saffron field and there is a lot more drilling to come
I'm not concerned about the additional capex, they won't be spending any cash if there wasn't a substantial increase in income/assets
The cumulative cashflow chart also shows the effects of the capex not showing a profit till 2024 and then $30m in the 5th year, $40m,$60m,$80m and rising.

What this doesn't show is what happens if there is double flow rates and reserves , it will alter this chart dramatically bringing the profit line forward and upwards

If there is a big increase in flows/reserves the sp should take off or we will be taken out in my opinion
ATB:))

Hi Peter
The oil can't go straight into tankers it has to be put into separation tanks, then the oil is put into a sales tank. There has to be pipes, bunds to cope with the expected flow rates. The original tanks around the Clove area are already in use and may not be of a substantial size and that may include the size of the pipes.
Not knowing the future plans for the Saffron field we can only speculate of the future requirements for infrastructure.
ATB:))

Hi neon
The satellite image shows there are existing tanks & infrastructure close to where Clove will be
Saffron is a bit away from these so new infrastructure will be needed
Could be why they are saying Saffron on stream Q2/3 cos at the moment they don't know what is required
ATB:))

Hi neon
Why don't you press the report button although I will lose my last post, be worth it to get rid of the troll
I can't see what it writes and I'm not interested either

If you have looked at the capex chart on the Swp presentation it would have come as no surprise to you that funds are required to develop the Saffron field.
2019 c$2.5m to drill the Saffron well and infrastructure
2020 c$14m to develop the field of which about 50% is for infrastructure and rest for drilling
2021 c$26m around half for pipelines
2022 c$ 26m same again for pipelines but I hadn't noticed one item for additional deep drilling
2023 on . Capex starts to tale off but more deep drilling is allowed for
Cash in the bank won't start happening till after 2023 and rising sharply and flat lining way passed 2030.

Depending on the reserves found on this well will determine where these funds will come from:-
Debt - bank loans
Cash generated from sales
Forward oil sales
Farm out
Lind
Or in a combination of all these

When you look at the Saffron map it shows water bearing strata to the north in blue and oil bearing shown in red around Saffron. Interesting thing about that map they've marked on the P90,P50 and P10 contour lines.
The Saffron red zone is all within the P90 contour at a guess this would make the reserves way above 100m in my opinion, if this survey map is anywhere near accurate.
From the drill section sketch the Lower Cruse strata scales between 400-500' thick and from the UBOT 1 section it looks like they produced oil from below the Cruse

From my own opinion this just looks better and better. The capex will be high but there are bigger rewards coming.
Keep the Faith :))

Hi troubles
Not a good move to build on flood plains . I know in Worcester the anxiety it causes, 5 floods this winter already
2 planning applications north of the bridge have been turned down but their still trying.
Only the same amount of water can get passed the bridge so building bunds to force water elsewhere doesn't work.
Rebuilding shopping centres is the answer get more people into the centre of towns
ATB:))