Member Info for bald_eagle

Do people really worry about FUM (& AIM stocks in general) going up or down a few & points? They obviously don't understand how the system works.
The Bid/Ask for FUM hasn't moved an iota....so FUM actually hasn't gone anywhere. People who fret of the % change for shares like FUM - especially when the bid/ask hasn't changed - are prone to chasing rainbows. Almost sad really....and worrying because there is a serious deficit in their financial knowledge.

Where is Amanda? Not heard from her in a while. I do hope she is OK.

"The SP is up and Bald Eagle is nowhere to be seen. Strange that."
=====================================================
Joker, I'm still here m8. Missing me?!

To be honest I have no real interest whether FUM SP goes up or down. I won't be adding if they fall and my holding is so small that I certainly won't benefit much from any increase. I'm just someone in search of the truth. If the truth makes you uncomfortable then I'm sorry about that.

theItalian, the 'elephant in the room' isn't that MED3000 was/is the placebo. I'm talking about something else...something more basic...why do men need an ED treatment? The 'elephant' may mean they are disappointed when they come to use MED3000...and that would be the one and only time they use it. Obviously the FUM management are aware of the 'elephant' but they aren't going to tell us until they have to.
- remember the 2 year shelf life debacle
- remember the deals that were lost beacuse of the rapid onset claims
- remember the placebo 'problems' in the trials

Investors are the last to know...however my 'elephant' seems to be a large elephantine object in the middle of the room...and strangely enough only I have spotted it (or I think I have)!!

"When this product goes to market the sales will be in the billions and the SP will reach stratospheric heights. The Joker and his merry band of investors will be set up for life. Onwards and upwards."
=======================================================================
Joker, what institution are you being held in?..I do hope they are looking after you, when you get your daily bed bath they use the appropriate PPE.
Take care me old fruitcake.

"...then get rid of the '1' and put 'A big' in front of the I between the two t's."
==============================================
I'm not good at puzzles.....tA bigIt...??

On Tyneside or in Glasgow I expect to call someone a 'ta bigit' is deeply insulting!!

So what are the chances of FUM securing a distribution deal with royalties of 20-25%. I would say slim. There are a number of reasons:

Any potential partner will know that FUM are very short of cash and running out circa h1 2021. They might offer an enhanced upfront payment in exchange for a reduction in the royalty figure. FUM would find it difficult to refuse IMO.
Potential partner might not believe all of FUM's hype. The fact that MED3000 was spun out of a failed P3 trial wont go unnoticed...and they might be reluctant to secure a deal 'at any cost'. I am sure deals can be reached but I don't expect FUM will find it as easy as they pretend.
Pharma partners have real experts who will analyse all the data and might find something to put them off or they can use to negotiate a better deal for themselves....I might have identified a fairly obvious 'elephant in the room' about MED3000, if I can do it then real experts will easily spot any problems with the data.
Mr Barder (FUM's chief deal maker) has an appaulling history on making deals. Time & again he has secured 'watertight' deals that have unravelled. Just remember how Mr Barder suggested that a deal was imminent & highly likely prior to the start of P3 trials....but it evaporated when big pharma said they wanted proof that MED2005 had a rapid speed of onset.

Let me repeat. I believe that FUM can secure distribution deals BUT they are unlikely to be as good as Amanda is suggesting. IMO potential partners will sign deals that will risk the minimum amount of their capital (they will want to see how well MED3000 sells). Futura will ask for a large marketing budget to maximise sales potential. The royalty % may have to be compromised to secure a deal.

What are the possibility of FUM securing deals with 25% royalties...and would they want such deals?

Apparently 'experts' (presumably Liberum) wrote the following: "similar to what we have seen for other assets that have been outlicensed post P3 success, and broadly mirrors an outlicensing deal
whereby Futura received a 20-25% royalty on future sales."

Notice how Amanda in his 'fantasy' valuations has used the upper range of the royalty (25%). But is that figure – or even 20% - feasible or more importantly desirable?

I terms of desirability, I am sure that Amanda and her ilk will want as high a royalty figure as possible. But are they being sensible? I would say they are not. A lower royalty could be more beneficial for shareholders.

Just look at FUM's earlier 'blockbuster' product CSD500. Presumably this could be the outlicensing deal that Liberum was referring to. FUM's management identified the cause of poor CSD500 sales - & the subsequent scrapping of the product - was due to a lack of sufficient marketing budget. So 'perhaps' it would have been more sensible to accept a lower royalty % in order to guarantee a higher marketing budget as part of any deal....20-25% of sweet FA compared to 10-15% on higher sales figures due to increased advertising spend..

You know it makes sense.

PS Liberum are currently the nomad & sole corporate broker for Futura Medical.

"Unfortunate turn of phrase!"
==============================
Nothing wrong with a bit of slippage...as long as one follows government advice!!

Slippage in current environment is to be expected.

I wonder what fantasy island valuation our resident 'expert' is going to come up with this week...£20 per share cannot be far away!!!!
He'll have FUM joining the FTSE100 index by years end. I love a good fantasy tale....be careful there be dragons?!

"....We have some ongoing discussion with them on whether our clinical data package as is – using some of the comparisons with data in the literature – will be sufficient. They were very receptive to the arguments that we were making and they have asked us to provide them more detail on that. We are putting that data package together and usually within 2 to 3 months the FDA will grant a meeting. They have actually asked us for another meeting to discuss the clinical sufficiency and provided that goes well – there is always an element of doubt when you are dealing with a regulatory authority – we anticipate filing in the US around September this year..."

Taken from Ken James presentation on 1st April 2020 (All Fools' day!!)

theItalian, it's not what he says...it's the information contained in the presentation slide.

Sometimes one has to 'almost' ignore what they are saying and look a little deeper!! Not on this particular point but with FUM in general (& other companies). Just like politicians they will want to put a positive spin on the data...ignore the less attractive stuff and concentrate on what makes them look good. Unfortunately when in a negotiation with potential partners (who emply 'real' experts) they will be doing just that...looking for the 'bad' stuff and bear traps....ignoring the 'aren't we wonderful' carp...looking at the actual data!!

Not in this case 'perhaps'....although did he mention the FDA data sufficiency test & if he thought FUM would pass it (easily!!)?

theItalian, if the FDA did require additional information then potentially it could be a bit of a blow to FUM. At best it would cause additional delay...worse would be need for a rights issue to fund the extra work....or they might just delay US approval and concentrate on EU approval (which doesn't appear to have the same 'data' hurdle to traverse).

Of course, even if the meeting is in July, FUM might not get the decision from the FDA (whether they do need extra info) straight away. So an RNS in August could be quite possible.

theItalian, I never said it was fixed....I said it was due. As I said in my post it may well have been delayed because of the pandemic. I got my information from the presentation Ken James did on 1st April 2020. It was 'estimated' to take place in July 2020.

If the meeting is delayed (probably to be expected) then this will have an impact on when they submit the dossier...which was 'estimated' for Sept 2020.

Relevant screenshot at circa 28 minutes into the webcast. It might be out of date by now....but if they have managed to keep to the timeline then meeting is a matter of weeks away.

The 2nd meeting with the FDA is due to take place in July (unless delayed because of the Coronavirus pandemic of course).. The purpose of this meeting is to review FM57 clinical study report (CSR) to determine data sufficiency. It is important - for FUM - that the FDA is 'happy' with the data in FM57. If additional information is required this could delay the US submission of the de novo request dossier...scheduled for Sept 2020. Worse case scenario is that FDA require something akin to an expensive clinical study...which would 'presumably' require FUM to seek additional funds (or delay the FDA submission).

One other snippet from Libernum:
- the broker said they expected AIM-listed Futura to secure US and EU approval for the product by mid-2021 “at the latest given the quality and quantity of its data”.

The above timescale could well mean that regulatory approval coincides with a need for more cash by FUM (cash running out in h1 2021 IMO)....so if there is an RNS about gaining regulatory approval it may be followed by another about a rights issue (it has happened before). However it is a brave person who predicts when a regulator will grant approval (never mind two regulators)...so 'by mid-2021 at the latest' is a brave call by Liberum....but they are 'the experts' I suppose!!

Watched the Andrew Marr show today....several people used the phrase 'Going forward'. Totally appropriately IMO. Burley Kay must have been fuming!!

In May 2020 Liberum said:
- MED3000 could take a 15% market share in the US and EU5
- which 'implies' just over £300mln of peak sales
- 55p target price
[https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/919822/futura-medical-reinitiated-at-buy-as-liberum-forecasts-med3000-sales-potential-of-300mln-919822.html]

I'm not sure how or why that's been extrapolated into a target price of £4.50 and then £10....others will have to judge on the motivation behind posting such numbers.

Blimey....the God squad are after me now!! I'm doomed...doomed!!