broker note28 Feb 2015 12:04
few quick points,
-looks v.unlikely to need to raise cash, as net cash out in 2nd half is forecast to be very little, expected net cash position of £1.5m, ie cash of £2.5m less the £1m loan, which has been rolled over, so that's that one put to bed.
-for 14/15 we are looking at break even post R&D credits, with a 50% margin
Sensibly, they are only forecasting a base load, there is very little in the base load for projects/mandates, so forecasts will be upgraded going forwards. The base load is forecast at £10m for 15/16 and £12m for 16/17, ie we are profitable at base load stage and projects/mandates will drop to bottom line (well, 50% of it)
There is a detailed break-down of the £200m validated sales opp, which is a sub-set of the £500m market of clearly identifiable opportunities.
Note says that :
'Taking the validated sales pipeline in Figure 03 on page 9 and assuming that this accrues over a four year period (a more conservative assumption than SRT’s own belief) this would suggest an annual revenue opportunity of £50m per annum. If we further discount this by 25% to account for the risk of mandates/projects not happening, this would equate to annual revenues of £37.5m. On the same revenue multiple of 2.1x, this would point to an EV of £79m and a valuation of 63p per share.'
Note goes on to say re valuation they have taken the average of different approaches and come up with 40p, sounds fine for starters.