Absea7 Jan 2015 10:15
interesting from TP.
The prospect of lots of ABSEA enabled vessels producing a growing and recurring revenue stream to SRT is a very exciting thought. Done a bit more research on it.
Should be said straight away that this is a long term project, but one that should kick off this year. Also any projections of figures 3,4 or 5 years out should be taken with a large pinch of salt, they will be wrong. What I am trying to do is establish if this will be an important area for SRT going forwards, and how important.
Bakky posted up the December ExactEarth newsletter a while ago
http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hub/183611/file-2237981961-pdf/Newsletters/Newsletter_Issue_12.pdf?t=1418847064389
ExactEarth are, with their strategic partner SRT, looking to go from tracking 250,000 vessels to tracking 1m by the year 2020. The overwhelming majority of this increase is designed to be small vessel tracking, ie fishing fleet type applications using Identifiers.
The 750,000 figure is consistent, as one might expect and hope, with SRT's own view. It is a subset of a target 4m small commercial vessels that SRT see as being ultimately tracked by AIS.
What revenue figure could we expect per boat per month? The revenue figure will vary depending on the exact nature of the contract and the market where it is deployed, but we are looking at a range of from $3 up to $15 per vessel per month. imo, using a overall figure of $4 per month is taking a conservative view
as you don't need too many at a higher figure to bump up the average, $5 is probably nearer the mark, but lets leave it at $4.
Interesting to note that the contracts are not actually worked out on a per boat basis, its worked out on a data stream per area, but the per boat figure is used as an easy way to present the cost to interested parties in an easy to understand way.
So now to numbers. ExactEarth stated aim is to hit 750,000 by 2020.It is interesting and a very important point to note that existing identifiers can be ABSEA enabled with a software upgrade. So, for example, the existing identifiers in Mexico and Oman could be upgraded.
Its not too hard to see where 750,000 could come from, India, Indonesia and Mexico could give 420,000. Then there is Middle East, the other SEAsia countries, S.America etc etc.
Illustrative numbers ramp up and revenue to SRT per year (most of which is pure profit)
2015 exit run rate of 50,000/yr £1.5m to SRT/yr
2016 exit run rate of 100,000/yr £3m to SRT/yr
2017 exit run rate of 200,000/yr £6m to SRT/yr
2018 exit run rate of 400,000/yr £12m to SRT/yr
2019 exit run rate of 750,000/yr £22.5m to SRT/yr
Worth pointing out that the Identifiers needed in the above forecasts will add something like £130m to the sales figures over that period, with 50% margins.
The data feed contracts will be with governments or government agencies and will be long term in nature. Thus this revenue stream will
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