Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Unfortunately there will not be a dividend this year, it is stated in the annual report. They also mention the need to maintain strict capital discipline in case of a downturn in the oil price, though this does not seem to apply to their wages and benefits. The board talk a lot about the value they have created for shareholders which I confess irks me greatly. Most shareholders will be in the red I suspect, judging from comments here and on other boards, so it doesn't help that the company either thinks or says all is well in the garden. At least there is the AGM to look forward to next week and a drilling programme to come along with Mariposa news so positives to be had perhaps. Have a good weekend all.
Malcy keeping the faith in his blog today. Says that it isn't long before JW reports to analysts in London which is" very exciting indeed". Presumably this is a separate event to the AGM (in Cardiff) then?
Disappointing figures ahead of the AGM. At a time when we should be ramping up production we are instead going in the other direction. You do wonder whether the 20,000 a day target for the end of next year is really attainable or if they just put those figures out there as a carrot to draw people in. We have to put our faith in the drilling programme as what we have at the moment isn't producing the goods unfortunately.
lol oilhead, you must be a newbie if you think Amer listens to the thoughts of the smaller shareholders but gave me a chuckle all the same. After a ruckus over executive bonuses a few years back they did appoint someone to improve investor relations but that was for the big boys only. I don't know if you recall but back then even the big boys had to go through a mediation company to get their view heard? The latest annual report talks about "building relationships between major shareholders and the Board" which sums things up really. Let's just hope they do listen when the big boys get in touch. Anyway, monthly production figures due shortly so perhaps we will get some good news there with the agm in sight. Only 6,500 bopd average needed to achieve their 2018 targets and they are already exceeding that! Sounds even better if you forget the 2017 exit rate was 7,000 bopd! Anyway, time to enjoy the sunshine out there and forget about the share price here.
No pp, am not short here, long term holder so heavily in the red unfortunately. Quite a few newbies on here lately which is good to see but a few daft comments starting to appear with their arrival. I always thought the share price would react positively when that finally happened so here's hoping...
Grim news you point out bakoven. Underlines really why the company should be making hay while the sun shines. Cutting back production during the downturn was prudent but they should be ramping things up now. CPO-5 should boost production but as Juxt points out they need other finds also. The 9,000 capacity pipeline increase won't be much use if there is nothing to send down it. At least the drill programme this year is amibitious but they need to get cracking and deliver. The share price speaks volumes at the moment.
I commented earlier in the week about the company's often mentioned target of 20,000 bopd (sustainable) production by the end of 2019. Reference to this was included several times in last year's annual report (eg "the Board considers the Company has sufficient running room to propel it through its target of 20,000 bopd net by 2019"). GC also commented on this figure in his most recent interview with Malcy and attributed it to JW. I've just been trawling through the latest annual report and can find no mention of this figure. Has it been dropped all of a sudden and, if so, why? Talk of the 20,000 target was often accompanied by a stepping stone figure of 12,000 which I took to be the 2018 year end objective. Interestingly, the latest report does give a target for 2018, not 12,000 but 6,500-8,000 bopd. A minimum of 6,500 doesn't seem very ambitious considering the 14 well programme, Mariposa, well clean ups et al. Based on actual production figures to date the company is currently running at 6,687 bopd so a cynic would say they are setting targets they cannot fail to achieve. Will the 20,000 get a mention at the AGM I wonder or has it been sent to black hole heaven along with so many of their other targets?
Still chunky sells going through each day so no reason to believe our friend is not still out there drip feeding his holding into the market. At these prices there is more buying to counteract but it has to be having a negative effect. It would be helpful for the board to make some sort of comment come AGM time to reflect on the share price and why we are where we are. Their silence only breeds conspiracy theories and supposition as to what is actually going on. With this in mind I wonder whether we will also get updated guidance on the 20,000 barrels of oil target for the end on 2019 and how they plan to increase OBA throughput to accommodate it. Still a lot of unknowns here which doesn't help moving forward.
As Malcy points out, with Brent around these prices (near $75) oil companies such as Amerisur should be "making out like bandits." Unfortunately "making out like dimwits" seems to be a more appropriate phrase at the moment. One wonders if they are ignorant of the share price or just don't care, either way their timing and pr stinks. Time for the rabbit and hat trick GC.
For me it's just another example of directors feathering their nests under the guise of that old chestnut "creating value for shareholders". Of course they would never be doing this for their own benefit would they? As for the targets set they are hardly extreme bearing in mind the share price they are working from. Shameful really when you look at actual shareholder returns and value creation in recent years. There was a suggestion earlier that sentiment rather than fact drives most comments on this board. Well, what is a fact is the performance of the share price over the past few years, abysmal. Why not incentivise based upon profit targets rather than sp targets - much more aligned to shareholder value I think, though the risk here is they could miss them. A real kick in the teeth at this particular moment in time.
Thanks for your earlier comments bakoven. Our research hasn't got us very far over the past few years but fingers crossed things are now improving. Still a long way to go as you correctly say. Would think the board have a nugget or two left up their sleeve for AGM time and possibly imminent news of GC finally putting his hand in his pocket, later today perhaps? On the downside there will be recent speculators sitting on a profit so that could temper things when they decide to sell. No doubt 20p will be a target for some. Still think RH is out there but momentum with the bulls at present. The sun is out, the share price is up, happy days.
He had 70 million in Oct 2017, 56 million in mid Feb then 53 million mid March. Plenty of shares left by all reasoning.
The IPL is taking place in India as we speak and goes on forever and a day. Not inconceivable that multiple trips will be undertaken by GC, what a life. Perhaps the ONGC boys are there also and a bit of networking is taking place. Re. The rainy season in Colombia, it seems to be wettest around april/may and sept to nov. Recall last year i think that production was halted due to a natural disaster in the area but it didn't directly affect our operations. So doubtful that weather is the cause of the slow progress on the drilling front. They have an ambitious number of drills planned so will have to get cracking, assuming it is a realistic target of course.
I am already over a penny in profit on the shares i bought this morning! I won't mention the losses I'm still nursing on the rest of my holding, doesn't bear thinking about. Obviously a concerted effort by the directors to pump start the patient and i like how they are drip feeding the news each day to keep things rolling. Perhaps GC's turn tomorrow? You are probably right jtd about him being at the cricket but no doubt he has minions to carry out stuff for him. Time will tell.
Welcome aboard Yorkshire - you have better timing than some of us so good luck for the future here. Thanks to jtd and bf for clarification about the Shell capital arrangement, looks to be a good sign. Market reaction is predictably muted though, still struggling to gain ground. Time to enjoy the sunshine I think then off out for a few jars tonight.
Valid points you make adam. When i read through the rns this morning i completely missed the second part of it, didn't see the tax refund or dividend statement! Amer do have a way of highlighting the good and glossing over the bad so points such as you make need to be voiced. 2017 was always going to be an improvement on 2016 so don't think the management should gloat too much about their efforts. They have increased production but from a low base and have failed to hit the target set last year while resrves have been depleted. There is a heck of a lot of work to be done between now and the end of the year - good that they are still targeting 14 wells, just wonder how many we will actually see.
GC did say in his statement that they remain focused on capital discipline - no doubt that translates as "no dividend". I often find reading these statements a bit like a Chinese meal - you feel you haven't got all you paid for. One thing to note is the absence of targets from the statement. Last year they were targeting average production of 6,000 to 7,000 for 2017 but only managed 4,800. They also stated 2019 year end target of 20,000. Nothing today unless i missed it. Will we get specific targets at the AGM i wonder?
Yep, as you say no real surprises apart from the working capital arrangement. Considering the healthy cash balance it does make you wonder but perhaps they need that capital for our juicy dividends, lol. Also liked the bit that they had achieved end of year target of "nearly" 7000 barrells. Don't recall them using that word before. 2017 was a bit mixed with production and oil price so we should be doing much better in 2018 but no hints given. Will have to wait for AGM i guess.
The frustration of bakoven and many others here is that management over-promise and then under-deliver. That's really the reason why we are in the dark as to what Monday will bring. There are so many variables involved that you'd be better off trying to pin the proverbial tail on the donkey. Can't blame investors for being disgruntled and believing that targets set will actually be met. Management are here to create value for us (their words not mine) whereas the reverse has been taking place. Positivity in leadership is one thing, blind faith is another. At the end of the day I think we are all in agreement of the potential for great things here but management have had a tendency to throw a spanner or two in the works. They need to regain the trust of investors - Monday is a good place to start. Good weekend all.
I had another listen to the GC interview last night - he does state that rhey sell oil at a slight discount to Brent (rather than a slight surplus to WTI). Happy days.