We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
"Use duck duck go as your browser. Nukes everything"
Another shout out for eschewing the insidious Google and swapping to DuckDuckGo as your search engine of choice. The results are fast, clean, relevant, and they don't log your searches or metadata from your browser headers.
Add to that browser extensions such as uBlock Origin and you will pretty much nuke all adverts.
Externd that with extensions like PrivacyBadger, ClearURLs, and a properly configured browser and you not only nuke all adverts but become largely untrackable from site to site, effectively thwarting advertising attempts to track you.
I haven't seen an advert anywhere online in years, and my data trail is - somewhat irritatingly for advertisers - a totally blank slate.
Ok manipulators, you win.
True, I don't actually need the money invested here anytime soon and appreciate that the fundamentals of the company are astoundingly solid, especially for an AIM listed company, but I'm tired of the year of savaging of this share.
GGP's downward trend in the incredibly short term of its projected lifespan is so utterly appalling to my short attention span and lack of patience that I've decided you can have all my shares. Every last one.
Just pump that SP up to 76p and they're all yours ;)
Good to know. I, personally, use II (Interactive Investor) who a few months ago responded to my question about sharing lending with a solid promise that they never lend shares out. Ever.
"I'm not a pessimist but my optimism ran out after the 3rd,4th,5th failed supposed uplift, supposed boom etc."
That's rather how this kind of manipulation works. The idea is to wear you down by attrition until you lack the energy/confidence to do anything other than sell (and probably at a loss). That's the point at which your shares are hoovered up by investors and/or institutions who have the foresight to know where this is going and the patience to see it through.
For clarity, I am myself have been underwater on this share throughout the entirety of 2021. I didn't buy at the peak, that's true, but I certainly did buy above the levels we're currently at.
Am I concerned? Not in the least. Am I selling a single share? No chance. I believe I can see exactly where this is going and the projected risks are (currently) well in line with my investment targets.
Especially desperate today, aren't we Colin1?
"Do I stand alone or are there others who are similarly minded?"
Very much with you. I'm already in a few green energy interests, albeit to a much lesser degree than I am in GGP, but once GGP starts returning to fairer values and hits my slice points I'm absolutely planning to rebalance my portfolio by (slightly) reducing here and growing my positions in green energy; especially hydrogen.
"Cookie. Ublock Origin is good."
I'd second uBlock Origin. I also run the ClearURLs and PrivacyBadger extensions in a highly modified Firefox browser, exclusively searching with DuckDuckGo.
I haven't seen an advert on any website for years.
"I'd be interested to know what they've based the first figure on, and what has been factored in to amend it up to £2.35?"
Alas, LSE messages don't support HTML standards so I can't properl replicate the neat tables, but below is a direct copy/paste of all the figures that make up the Simply Wall St. valuation:
AIM:GGP Discounted Cash Flow Data SourcesData Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 6.1%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for AIM:GGPData Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 4.9%
Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.09
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.092) * (1 + (1 - 19.0%) (0.05%))] 1.062
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 1.062
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.90% + (1.062 * 4.89%) 6.09%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:GGP using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Greatland Gold is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
AIM:GGP DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 6.09%)
2022 -40.4 Analyst x3 -38.08
2023 -64.9 Analyst x3 -57.66
2024 -15.17 Analyst x3 -12.7
2025 141 Analyst x1 111.29
2026 231.02 Est @ 63.84% 171.87
2027 334.89 Est @ 44.96% 234.83
2028 441.19 Est @ 31.74% 291.6
2029 540.41 Est @ 22.49% 336.67
2030 626.95 Est @ 16.01% 368.14
2031 698.92 Est @ 11.48% 386.83
Present value of next 10 years cash flows £1,792
AIM:GGP DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= £698.915 x (1 + 0.90%) ÷ (6.09% - 0.90% ) £13,577.47
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
£13,577 ÷ (1 + 6.09%)10 £7,514.73
AIM:GGP Total Equity Value Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= £1,792 + £7,515 £9,306.73
Equity Value per Share
(GBP) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= £9,307 / 3,965 £2.35
AIM:GGP Discount to Share Price Calculation Result
Value per share (GBP) From above. £2.35
Current discount Discount to share price of £0.18
= (£2.35 - £0.18) / £2.35
So, as with many of you, I have enjoyed the exciting news of our CDF win and watched the GGP secment (timestamped link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lGaV9vbH5c&t=2838s) and final award.
This is all great stuff, but Terence Van Der Hout mentions several times in the interview, and once in the final award section, that he expects a takeover of Havieron by Newcrest. That's not necessarily a surprise, but I did note he specified the *project* and not GGP the *company*.
I'm perfectly happy to admit that I'm not educated in the ways of high-commerce, so does anyone have any insights as to exactly what this process may entail? Presumably some sort of buyout of the remaining 25%-30% share of the project, rather than a company takeover, the price of which to be decided by the GGP BoD in accordance with the wishes of the shareholders. Have I got that right?
My second point is that in the final section of that linked video, as GGP were being given the award, he again alludes to a takeover (at 52:40) then Willem Middelkoop interjects with there being great upsides and stating "they'll keep 25%" (at 52:53). It's that last interjection that confuses me. If Newcrest takeover Havieron and not GGP, how are GGP retaining 25% (or any % for that matter)?
This is not a deramp by any stretch of the imagination; as long-time posters here know I am heavily (heavily for me, at least!) invested in GGP and very much a believer in it; rather, this is a genuine thread to discuss both what was said in that presentation and the possible outcomes of it for the future.
Thank you :)
"I recommend sacrificing an hr or so of your day / evening to listen to Shaun’s perspective on the PFS & the immediate & distant future."
To facilitate easy access to the same, could you provide a link please? It's easy to lose track of things amid the clamour and shouting on the BB.
"Just bought more think I've developed ocd"
CDO, please. Then it's in neat, alphabetical order.
Was Red drunk? Again?
I'm not - by any measure - an investment pro, and have a very tiny amount of capital at my disposal, but I'm very much of this mindset, Nicki.
I own a comparatively miniscule amount of shares (25k) here, but have done sufficient research to know that the SP can frankly do what it likes; not a single one of those shares is getting sold until they reach a certain point.
Had I any money to my name, I'd be buying more at these levels.
Another shoutout for II here; I've been with them for about a year and a haf and never had any problems.
I have both a Trading Account and an ISA with them; both very easy to open. The Trading Account was first, so took a day or two to get setup. Because I then had a Trading Account already established, my ISA was opened in a few minutes, and all via their browser control panel.
As others have said, they're not the absolute cheapest, but neither are they overly expensive and their service is - for me, at least - excellent.
"Why Your Stock is Always Red
https://www.griproom.com/fun/why-your-stock-is-always-red"
JiffyBag, thank you so much for that link. That article, and the author's linked article "10 signs your stock is being manipulated", make for excellent reading.
It's almost as though MF haven't the slightest idea...
Alas, mine remains red...but another penny and it's broken even and back into blue.
Before people are too critical of tiggerman's lively post, I would remind everyone he has signed it off with the words "( on weed )".
That's not to suggest it doesn't contain value, but I think we can be a little accomodating if some of the points are slightly over the top :)