Royal Mail change of holding company name 16 Oct 2022 22:47
Commentary from analysts and reporters
When Royal Mail Group announced plans for its name change in July, analysts were sceptical that a separation of GLS and Royal Mail would happen, arguing this could present problems for both businesses. For example, asset managers Hargreaves Lansdowne said:
“While the road ahead looks bumpy to say the least, if GLS and Royal Mail part ways, neither will have an easy ride. Royal Mail's bloated cost structure will continue to be a ball and chain and GLS, while profitable, will struggle against deeper-pocketed competitors. At present the split's just a hypothetical, and it could be a tactic management's using to inch forward in union negotiations.”3
The reference to ‘deeper-pocketed competitors’ here is likely to be in relation to DHL and DPD which are owned by Deutsche Post and La Poste respectively. They are both state owned operators with significant market share, revenue, network infrastructure and access to state funding. Without Royal Mail, GLS would no longer benefit from the Group’s network infrastructure, economies of scale and other commercial advantages that come with being part of an integrated business.
On 19th September, investment bank JP Morgan said that a demerger was "doubtful" in the present circumstances and that the division "can likely only be separated once the UK business is in a more sustainable position".4
However, on 5th October 2022, The Times published an article titled ‘Postal chief delivers threat to unions’, which argues that Royal Mail ‘has a fiduciary duty to prepare for a split’. The article quotes Keith Williams, Royal Mail Chair, as saying “Royal Mail needs GLS. GLS probably doesn’t need Royal Mail.” Williams also reportedly said of a potential break-up: “Many people thought we would not pull the labour agreements but we did. We’ve reached a crucial stage here.”5
Impact on the Royal Mail share price
Royal Mail’s share price has fallen by more than 60 per cent this year from a high of 526p in January to 200p today (5th October). Analysts have put this down partly to the fall in parcel volumes following the pandemic boom, and partly to deteriorating industrial relations.
Royal Mail has reportedly argued that spinning off GLS could unlock value for shareholders,6 and after yesterday’s announcement Royal Mail’s shares closed up 10½p, or 5.4 per cent, at 207p.7 There is also speculation that the potential break-up of the business is one reason why Luxembourg based private equity firm Vesa Equity has stated its intention to increase its stake in Royal Mail Group from 22% to 25%. The CWU has raised concerns directly with the Business Secretary about this issue, which is now being reviewed by the UK Government under the National Security and Investment Act.