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You hit this milestone, you have people leaving with profits and you need a catalyst to push them beyond this point and for them to believe that they will see a return at these levels. Divi rise would be good! Look at Glencore 419 yesterday. VERY similar trajectory to BP over the last few months but has firmly broken 400, Gutted as I was going to go 50/50 this an Glen so COME ON BP you can do it!!
It could happen but I'd expect another quarter of high oil prices first then perhaps special divi or an increase. Paying down debt and buy backs seems to be the priority. The talk of windfall taxes might have spooked him! you never know.
I'm gonna drop a couple of grand onto GUSH and let it ride. Oil looks unstoppable right now. Read the thread I posted below. ESG demands have seen acute production destruction, leaving a huge gap between supply and demand. XOM has doubled in a year. We've double in a year with plenty more to come. Divi will end up being restored and then we're off to the moon.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1483451830478770186.html
I’ve mentioned before what changed between now and pre Covid. The biggest change has been production destruction! Not demand destruction.
Check XOM in the USA they jumped from 35 to 70 and more on the cards. In this market with a continuing move to value and fundamentals we could see 7. It’s a stretch obviously. It better to ignore the last two years of Covid go back to pre Covid prices and ask yourself what could have pushed BP up at that time. Oil will be higher in 22 than it was we rode prior to Covid.
Because its running into a WALL of sell orders at in the 396-398 range. Watch the share trades. You can see all the sells in this range. Told ya 400 was going to be tough to crack because we have to shift through these sells.
People gravitate to round numbers! People who jumped in at under 200 may have set sells at 400. The REAL hard part will pass those gaps down back at the start of COVID charts look like we waterfall dropped so those gaps UP will be harder to breach, in my opinion. Interesting comments here in the FT today about $100 oil:
https://www.ft.com/content/43d0ade7-bc31-47cc-b857-b6e570c85ade
7 years of lower prices beat investment in the sector down. Gap between supply and demand greater than ever.
Will be interesting to see the level of selling at 399 401 It's a psychological level many will have sell stops in place. Might take the week to clear all that out. Recent price momentum shows we are going to see mid 400s, Oil looking for 100 a barrel. Let's hope we hedge some at these loft valuations.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/oil-prices-can-go-a-lot-higher-before-affecting-economy-and-consumption-bison-interests-young~2213546
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pdp50rX2p50&feature=youtu.be
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/oil-to-300
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1460597747380334595
Many people may have hard stops at that level so we will see a sell wall. That will be tough to crack, but don't forget many, many people brought this BEFORE COVID at higher levels than 400, so they won't be selling. I think it will take a day or two to soak up the 400 sell orders before we march on. ANY hint that the dividend is being restored and we will F-ing fly and I don't think 500 is off the cards before summer. If no divi rise, I expect this to bounce around 430 to 470 for the foreseeable.
Good video and the Daily Mail sums up the both sides argument pretty well too. It boils down to a simple investing decision. What changed? What changed here between March 20? The answer is only positives for BP. Oil dropped through zero immediately triggered enormous production and investment cuts across the Oil sector. The slow climb back to these levels put shale temporarily out of business and forced BP to sell some under performing assets. OK so they cut the DIVI most if not all of us know UK fund managers prize DIVI over fundamentals (hence a barely 20% in the FTSE in 10 years) So they kicked us in the teeth for that! But what changed deep down, COVID was always going to be transitory. If you could survive it you would be fine. Look at Airlines IAG will make it and now don't have to complete with Norwegian and other low-cost carriers nipping at their margins. BP is the same. Nothing changed. We still need oil and will do for 50 years. What DOES BP have ? Money and lots of it. They also have infrastructure and a track record. They will continue to print money at these levels OPEC have already indicted that they are happy with 65 to 75 per barrel. Production will aim to keep that equilibrium long term. In the meantime, if you brought at 190 well done!! I brought at 300 last year, I'd taken my eye off BP and missed that low. As soon as I saw it I snapped them up. We still need oil and I'm holding for Mid 400s exactly where we were before COVID. I'd love higher, if oil stays where it is I will hold! If oil goes even higher, I hold. Once this all shakes out and we see what level of production demand was caused by the low prices last year, we will have a better idea of the long-term price of BP. Goog luck all.
The high was 602 July '19 we started dropping, accelerated by COVID to the lows of 190. What was the catalyst in July of '19? OIL was $56 Look back to June 16. we rose 356 to 438. Looking at the charts, I'd say 429 is next resistance, nothing moves in a straight line. Arguably 400 is going to be a tougher nut to crack.