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Exactly, so 360 puts us back a month of gains, many of us are still in profit at that level. Say BP write off the stake, higher oil prices will quickly make up the difference. I don't think sanctions will hit oil and gas exports or Europe will have a long, cold winter. Sanctions will target to individuals, banks and financial institutions.
Will use STOP LIMIT in interactive brokers. 405 is above my entry point so will leave with a profit. I might OCO the order and set an entry at 360 to pick them up again once the dust settles and make another few thousand.
Fantastic take agree completely. Sanctions won't target oil and gas as Biden knows US Gas prices are high enough already and European economies reply on the Russian Gas. I'm expecting sanctions on Banks and individuals close to Putin. Accounts and money will be frozen and the UK may go after hard assets in London. How much is doable under current laws will be interesting, They could designate Putin and others as "terrorists" and seize money and assets that way. Any sign of War and Oil goes over 100 that's a given.
I’d say we are gonna drop back to 405 next week and make another attempt at the 52 week highs. So far trying to cross 52 week highs has proved problematic. Let’s see we do have a tail wind. Russia could **** in our cereal as the algos will have a fit. Honestly aside from that there is nothing to stop us hitting the pre pandemic highs shortly.
Someone needs to do the sums on this. We've fewer shares in circulation than at our previous peaks. So with that in mind, we could work out the share price and market cap at those previous levels. 10 quid is a stretch. 500 by Summer is a given at these Oil prices and 450 if it falls back to last years average.
Buy the rumour sell the news. That was an 18pence swing today in the price. A real head snapper. Some people made a fair bit of money today. Still this isn't heading back to 330 anytime soon so sit tight. Windfall tax story in the daily mail today. Looney needs to come out and say that profit will be given back to shareholders AND invested in Green energy..
Results, unless STELLAR are probably priced in. It would not surprise me to see a drop. BUT. That drop will be to the 390s where we have accumulated this past fortnight. Would love a special divi but increased buy backs are probably more on the cards. Expect ANY meaningful drop to be brought up quickly either as buy backs or bargain hunters who know the only way this is heading is up. Not CRAZY UP just up.
Managed to get back in 398. Great that we've had a few days bubbling along at 400. RALLY base RALLY we not believe in charts, but rally base rally is something I DO believe in. Consolidation around certain prices brings additional money in and old money cashes out. Tale as old as time. Onwards and upwards mid 400s will be the next target.
Why BP is under performing.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4420032-esg-focused-oil-majors-are-underperforming
2. Gas Crisis.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/01/europe-energy-crisis-putin-russia-gazprom-gas-ukraine/
3.Another take on the FT's article Energy being snapped up by Hedge Funds.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/01/21/exclusive-climate-change-backlash-hedge-fund-cashing-oil-gas-equities-fossil-fuel-sector-flourishes/
Resistance to 400 is stronger than I ex[ected, could this even fall on less than stellar results? I'm still looking for retry at 385 to 390.
Will we pass 400 on the way to the 17th Feb then drop? results better be amazing! I'm going to try to get back in 375-380 before the 17th and hold again. As for share predictions, we were coasting in the 440 to 460 range before COVID with oil around 55-60. We are going to need a few more quarters in this new 70-80 range BEFORE divi raise (I guess) OR if profits are obscene we could get a raise quicker OR special divi?? lets see but GLA.
Price action over the last two days in the face of major instability in the US markets makes me think someone knows something is coming. Special divi or permanent rise probably incoming. If so expect 425 by next Friday! GLA to all those who didn't paper hand this.
https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/oil-demand-is-outweighing-supply-inventory-analysis
Lot of good people to follow on twitter in the E&P space.
So not the end of the week we were hoping for! Sage that I am, I expected deep resistance at 400. What I didn't see coming was a collapse in the S&P and the DOW that kicked all E&P in the nuts Friday afternoon. We held 380 which was great, and FINGERS CROSSED we might stay in that 380 400 channel longer. Russia war, many predict that will send Oil over $100 double-edged sword for BP with the Rosneft exposure. I'm sure smart people are working out how sanctions would work in that situation. There are always workarounds. Stocks wise, there is going to be a rotation to cash and VALUE. That will be good for us but it will not happen overnight. UNLESS Divi goes backup, in which case we will shoot straight through 400 (If we are in this price range) remember Institutional (UK)buyers LOVE dividend! Monday could be a bloodbath on Wall street. Hope you all sold your SMT shares at the ATH two months ago GLA.
I won’t sell Mark. It’s always tempting when you are a few grand up to lock it in. I’ll be more tempted to sell around the 456 level depending on momentum at the time. We’ve seen today a small fall as people take profits after a fantastic run up. Any more hints of windfall taxes and a dividend raise is a nailed on certainty. 90 dollar oil will sustain us through 400. I said two days ago it would be hard to push through so this fall is not a surprise. Really would like to see a sustained 380 to 400 new “base” to see a push through on results. Good luck everyone.