Member Info for AutomationGuru

Let's hope you're right. I'm tired of bleeding out on this thing. Can't for the life of me figure out why they either haven't listed in the U.S. or been acquired yet. One of those two things has to happen soon.

Great analysis, and I think you are spot on in all of your points. I think it's important to stay balanced in how we view each point. For example, if sales spend picks up now that we're out of covid, you would expect to forecast additional sales to correspond with that spend. Otherwise, why would you spend it!?

My view, yes spending will tick up, but sales growth will also recover. If sales growth improves vs the first half, (even a little) they reach cash break-even by year-end, and have enough cash to continue investment in future R&D, that's a winning formula.........and count me as one who believes it will happen. I see the stock up big this time in 2022.

@Elguiri: I honestly think the odds of not hitting December's range is very low given the nature and predictability of the contracts. What happens 1-2 years out is a different story as they could, in theory, fail to renew existing customers and their new bookings could remain growing at a slower growth rate. But I don't think the risk is a big miss on full year 2021 financials. 170M+ in revenue is all but a given.

@joatman, what do you make of this given that the majority of the increase in voting rights comes by way of swaps - but without any detail as to what the swaps are? Do you think there could be "empty voting" going on here where BofA is hedged such that it has retained voting rights but is financially incentivized to vote against what is in the best interest of shareholders? Or am I being paranoid, and this should be viewed as a good thing that BofA believes in Blue Prism?

@joatman, I agree. My guess is the bears have squeezed all the blood they can and the bulls are tired of getting hammered as they average down. Exhaustion on both sides.

So if those people are ensuring that the product they are contractually committed to deliver fits the custom needs of those clients, wouldn't it be reasonable to believe that those development efforts could be utilized across other customers? So while I agree that it's a bit of a misclassification from pure R&D spend, it should still help advance the offerings to future clients.

@banner76, I'll give you the 7/1 spend in R&D, but you're also getting a 35/1 discount vs UiPath on the positive side. I definitely agree that management has been disappointing, but that can be fixed whether it's selling to private equity or just plain firing and replacing the dead weight.

Besides the CFO selling a ton of stock and options in February (which I agree was pathetic), do you see any other management sales? Since a sale of stock from one individual doesn't necessarily mean bad things, I'm curious whether it's an isolated incident or whether it's a trend. Also, those sales were at 2x the current price, so I'm constantly questioning at what point does that information become baked in?

I think the current price is effectively writing them off assuming they will fade into oblivion - an ignorant proposition from my view. There are certainly competitive challenges with UiPath going public at a $35B valuation with about $1.8B in cash to outspend Blue Prism in R&D/development. Blue Prism had the first mover advantage to be where UiPath was, but was not due to not listing in the U.S., under-investing in the product development, and poor sales execution. The common theme of all of those things: inept management.

So that's the bear case. That said, I'm a huge bull, and still believe in Blue Prism as a company. The game is not even close to over as the RPA space is just starting to blossom. Blue Prism still has 10% market share in a very sticky industry with high costs of switching vendors, they're ramping up product development & R&D, are close to a U.S. listing, and trade for an incredible discount of 1/35th of UiPath's valuation. Bring in people who know how to run the company, and this thing is a rocket ship as I believe all of the other foundational pieces are there.

At this level, it's the equivalent of buying a growth company (revenue growth of 20%-30% per year for the next 5-8 years) at a bargain bin price. The upside potential is there and frankly inevitable. I've loaded up with the expectation that my money will go 3x-5x by 2025.

The valuation differentials are just plain silly.....EVEN if revenue growth continues at this slower pace (which I don't believe it will as RPA awareness escalates, they revamp the product and UI, and sales people are able to get out of the house again).

Besides, once the business reaches cash flow break-even, the optics of its financials change DRAMATICALLY - and we're only 6 months from that tipping point.

@Hellasverona, not sure if that was directed at me, but let me assure you I'm the biggest bull on Blue Prism there is. I just joined because I've been desperately searching for content that I'm not getting in the states to understand what I could be missing. The only things I can find to be worried about are the insider sells from the CFO in February (without knowing the reason), and the slower growth rate which the bears seem to be extrapolating out to mean that Blue Prism is going obsolete. I don't believe the argument that they're going obsolete based on their customer retention, reading customer reviews on Gartner peer reviews, and personal experience. So that leaves whether the CFO knew/knows something we don't - which is why I ask the question. Definitely not hating on Blue Prism as it is my biggest individual holding.

Why do you think nobody is buying? And more importantly, why would the CFO sell so much of his holdings back in February before the crash. He sold his entire 41k options that had a 3-week vesting schedule, and sold it <3 weeks after vesting. Not exactly the vote of confidence you would want from leadership. Hope he's happy for selling at the top while investors bleed out.