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@PrettyWild gets it! Even if the valuation multiple stays depressed at 4x sales, the company will still grow 33% per year between now and 2027 if it maintains its modest 10% market share. Even if it loses market share, it will still grow 20%-25% per year, and the share price will rise in lockstep. That's the worst case.

On the other hand, if the sales multiple goes from 4x back up to 10x sales, the share price goes to 250% of today's price......and then even higher when that 10x multiple is against a sales number that is 20%-33% higher 12 months from now. The math is so easy, a caveman could do it.

TLDR: The worst case results in a higher share price. The best case results in a WAY higher share price. ;)

@joatmon, if a deal goes through, it has to be significantly higher than today's share price. The only reason the share price could be settling below a price that the sale would occur is due to the uncertainty that a deal does not get done, and the market reacts negatively to it.

Why am I not scared? Because either there's maybe 20%-40% more upside and investors make a quick profit if a sale takes place......or management declines all offers giving investors a chance to make the full potential return of the business over a longer period of time. By my estimation, that's a 300%-500% return over the next several years.

I originally invested to make the larger return over a multi-year period, so I wouldn't be upset if a deal doesn't go through. That said, my cost basis is low enough that making a quick 20%-40% from here in under two weeks time isn't terrible either.

@PrettyWild, given that the share price was flat despite the lopsided volume, you have to think that the 23M buy on Friday sopped up the shares from all of the weak hands like a dry mop in a bucket of water. My instinct tells me that the remaining holders will be much more reluctant to part with their shares as demand continues to build on the buy side. The result should be a higher share price this week if I were to speculate.

Blue Prism stock makes up 1/3 of my entire net worth, and I'm still hanging in strong at the current price. Either they get bought out for something higher than the current price, or the deal falls through and the stock organically goes 3x-5x over the next few years. Not seeing a big downside either way. Oh, and if the share price experiences a big drop on a failed deal, I will load up even more.

Under two weeks to go. Who's excited!? :)

A buy of 1.93 million shares just took place for 23M! There must be some big money out there knowing that Blue Prism is going much higher.

Don't get lulled to sleep from a relatively boring week, and get those diamond hands out! The next few weeks will be exciting; and if all goes well, very lucrative for investors.

@jamster, I thought the same thing. Blue Prism's projected increase in ARR is similar in percentage terms to what UiPath just expressed for 2022 in their earnings call. Wow, maybe they're not that different after all!

Prior to their IPO, UiPath jacked their sales expenses up to fill the pipeline to enhance their growth run rate well above the industry average, and then subsequently slashed the overhead tied to it. That gave the false impression that they were growing much faster and cheaper than the competition if you only looked at it on paper. It was a mirage, but Wall Street bought it resulting in their $30B+ USD valuation vs Blue Prism's 1.6B USD valuation.

Eventually, smart investors will wake up to the fact that these are both very valuable competitors in a space that will grow at 30% CAGR this decade. The only difference? One is over-valued (UiPath) and one is wildly under-valued (Blue Prism). It's obvious which is the better investment.

Don't fall asleep and lose interest. Selling after a couple days of flat price action would be a huge mistake in my opinion. Patience is the name of the game here. There should be another couple legs up from here even before a verdict on the takeover is announced.

@Fairy1, I'm so sorry for your loss. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family my friend.

I am so loaded up with Blue Prism stock that the outcome of this month could result in being able to retire in my early 40s and spend more time with my kids. Last week's gains were mind blowing, and we're not even done yet. Blue Prism stock has quite literally changed my life. Anybody else feeling on top of the world right now?

Thank you @PrettyWild! Love this chat board, and all the great info everyone has submitted here. It has helped me tremendously in knowing how to play every plot twist.

Needs a subscription. Would you mind copy/pasting some of the key points? I'm interested.

Yep, onward and upward! Let's goooooo!!!!!

Coast Capital believes Blue Prism is currently undervalued and it would be a mistake to agree to a takeover at the share price.

“As you are well aware, the Enterprise Value of Blue Prism PLC is currently valued at approximately three times forward revenues - an 80% to 90% discount to the company’s peers including UiPath, Appian, WorkFusion, Automation Anywhere, etc.,” the letter from Coast Capital said.

“Were a buyer to pay a premium of 100%, the share price would still be materially lower than its intrinsic value, and well below where the shares were trading as recently as January 2021.”

“Furthermore, we note that the team at Blue Prism PLC (including management and board) has built and maintained the world’s premier unattended automation software product, with an extremely valuable client base of 2,000+ large-scale enterprises,” Rasteh said.

“Even at its current worst, the company enjoys an enviable reputation as a best-in-class performer, and as a result remains a leader in its rapidly growing and very profitable industry. Now is not the time to throw in the towel!”

@joatmon, yes it's two different PE firms. They're the #4 and #10 biggest PE firms, who are competing against one another.

I think even if both bids fall through, the tactic accomplished the purpose of getting attention on the stock and getting the shares re-valued.

I agree @clairesmith! That would be an appropriate target that leaves "meat on the bone" for both sides. I think Blue Prism is worth somewhere in the 6B range. Of course, a few strategic moves have to take place to unlock that value, but if they sold somewhere around there Blue Prism investors would make a quick profit and the PE investors would triple their money over the next 3-5 years. A win/win.

On the other hand if they sell for much less than 2B, I worry that management would be making a bad deal on behalf of its shareholders - even if it is a profitable one for many who have bought over the past 3-6 months.

Looks like there are a slew of disclosures coming out today showing some big institutional investors getting in on the party. This is going to be a fun month. Here we goooooo!!!

Maybe. Either way, I think he's right. I'm ok making a quick profit on this, but I think the bigger returns are in holding it for years. Let the games begin!

From an article today.....

"Major investor Coast Capital Management warned the board not to sell and said the business is still worth far more than its share price suggests"

"Coast urged him not to “throw in the towel” and said the business is worth far more than its market value"

I agree with him. Blue Prism will go MUCH higher if they don't sell out to PE, and investment returns will reach 3x-5x over the coming years. That said, if they want to sell the business, it should still reward investors handsomely who were astute enough to load up over the past couple months.

Already can't wait for the open tomorrow!!!!!

After months of asking myself, "how in the world isn't anybody buying Blue Prism", the thesis is finally playing out! I still see lots of upside even after today's 37% pop. Any reason this doesn't go to 1,500 GBP? BULLISH!!!!!

Who bought 1 million? An insider?