Member Info for Auson

romaron,
I've not really followed Petrofac too much lately. I think I was buying around the time of the Rights Issue and Neil Woodfords fund demise. The SFO case was outrageous, who would have thought bribes are a normal part of business in some parts of the world. Savills do know how to run a good auction I will give them that.

Hi romaron,

I don't disagree with any of that although if you had to rank in risk order would I think it would be
1 Petrofac ( 15.78% )
2 TLW (8.47%)
3 HBR (8.69%)
4 BP ( 3.4%)
5 Shell (2.02 % )

I notice Savills stock on loan was 2.13% in August before rate hikes and the mini-budget now 4.69%

Here reduced over last month from 2.86% to 2.47% I suspect that might reduce further if / when Brent moves up as we are down in the 20- 21 range again.
Harbour reduced from 9.77% to 8.69%
Tullow reduced from 9.5% to 8.47% also so I guess that shows its all oil price and not EPL related.

Actually increased here over the last month from 2.66% end Dec 22 to 2.97% end Jan 23.
This could be good in terms of a further rapid move up.

Questforoil,

The Gov. will be getting next to nothing from the EPL. How much of Shells $39 Billion profit will they be taxing through EPL ?
They make extra tax revenue from taxing consumers at the pump. They also need inflation to inflate away the massive national debt, close to 100% of GDP

Questforoil,

Sunak mentioned the average historic oil price when the EPL was first introduced, so its not just speculation.

Questforoil,

There will be a floor price put in but obviously its yet to be announced. If it is the same as the EU $84.19 ( we are in the sweet spot today ) My rose tinted spectacles also could foresee average price received for oil being used by Enquest if under $84.19 no EPL.. It could happen.

NigeCo,

Yup chart doesn't say 187p but does say 400p

Hope everyone has backed up the truck and loaded up here today. Some decent size trades going though on good volume.
Orchestrated Brent and shareprice take down INMHO. I reckon could finish at 22.5p then 25p before long.
I am seeing Brent at $91 to $92 which with a good update should be enough for 27 to 30p here.
GLA

Hi romaron,

I suppose the beauty of crude is that it is much more transportable than gas. UK gas also sold at UK prices which seem quite a bit below US pricing. I also think Governments will push for more electric heating which might have more of a chance of taking hold than electric cars or electric passenger jets.
I actually know someone who is working on electric aircraft jet engines for one of the big players in jet engines ( and posh cars.) I asked him first how then what they are going to used for.. They are not privy to such info. I read somewhere they are hoping to use an electric jet engine to make take off and landings quieter, airlines could probably claim hybrid aircraft and reduction in emissions. Negligible I know but it would help with the greenwashing.

MaryBr190,

What chart are you looking at ? Mine says 400 !

NSVPatel,

I would love to buy some in the low 20s, preferably when oil hits $90+ again. I would also like to date Rita Ora... I think there is more chance of the later happening so wish me luck !

NSVPatel,

You guys are way too late riding on the coat tails of the shorters. Odey ( who hates Tullow ) has reduced to under notifiable short position from 2.42% short. Varde Partners Europe again now under notifiable threshold from 2.8% net short, KGH under notifiable threshold from 2.18 % short. We still had over 9% stock on loan so still some short covering to come. 60p soon.. I think
Shorts are closing out, the exact opposite of what you say

AimingHigh2021,

90p by 3pm is an old joke around these parts. I actually found it quite funny. Its also quite likely that there will be a day in the future where Tullow does indeed hit 90p by 3pm. If for no other reason than debt reduction as debt here is in excess of triple todays market cap.

slater606,

Did you buy in this morning, or are you waiting for 35 or 33 or some other made up number ?

Mac123,

The update was good, steady as she goes but we need the oil price to rise to really get a return on this. Luckily things are looking a lot more Bullish for oil right now.
With the gearing Tullow should be quite a high Beta stock meaning oil price rises will be magnified here. Add in the shorts who will close when Brent gets going ( or asap ) and we will be off like a Tesla rocket.

StanleyPro,

Just shows slater doesn't have a clue what he is talking about, citing Harbour. The whole reverse takeover was just a means for the private equity to monetise their stake, now they have been screwed by the EPL.
Looking forward to seeing some serious de-leveraging here tomorrow hence games with the shareprice today.

slater606,

Harbour results might have looked great but they are going to pay £700 million in tax then 75% on all UKCS gross profit ( minus some cap ex ) after the tax credits are used up.
All of their North Sea assets will need to be re-valued down due to the 75% tax now levied.
Besides that there is a huge short position on Harbour and insiders and the Private equity have been steadily selling out !
Shall we go on to why Tesla. Meta results weren't good or why Occidental is valued plenty high enough.

slater606,

Do you not think uncertainty has a price.. I can tell you it does. After the update tomorrow there will be more certainty regardless, this is why stocks rise even when results are bad.
In Tullows case we know production was on guidance up to October. Ok the oil price has averaged just under $95 a Barrel needed to hit circa $250m FCF, but if Rahul had aimed to beat that target we could still be very close. Net debt to EBITAX of 1.5X would also be a big positive. Brent currently $87.87 and futures pricing over $84 for the rest of the year sounds good to me.

* end of the downtrend in Brent is confirmed ( obviously )