Member Info for Auson

MaverickD,

Was here before years ago on the two previous large drops, this one takes its time to get going but it really does have legs when it rallies. This time it looks like all of the ducks are in a row for the largest recovery rally.
I think similar for Tullow Oil.

Tango-Cash,

Tullow would be a great stock to short if hedging a long Oil position.
If this is happening then the big rise in SP here won't happen until after we have reached the peak in Oil Price.
Although the stock on loan had been reducing here it had not reduced much over the last month. Looking at the trades there still seems to be willing sellers and algobots running sell programs.

Paddyboy1,
Spot on their with your analysis, as I said there was over 14% stock out on loan here. Should mean its going higher

Snapper10,

I am dissapointed I thought you might have some sort of fanciful explanation.
I know exactly what it means by the way. Very exciting and I've been adding on this drop.

As I've stated on here before at the end of Sep 21 there was still 14.34% of Petrofac's stock out on loan. Up from 11.97% the month before ( end Aug 21 )
How much of that stock have they been able to buy back as of today the 7th ?
Any thoughts on that Snapper 10 ?

worraps,

That does rather fit with them working for Unaoil. All the pros know what the court case and fine meant. Ambigious statements from the SFO mean very little. The threat of the $500m fine has gone. Have the SFO brought any further charges against Rolls Royce since their fine as part of the Unaoil investigation ? No and its only been 5 years !

Snapper10,

'the case' meaning what exactly ? Can't be the one the Judge has just ruled on

HappyInvestor100,

As we all know fundamentals mean very little these days, its all about sentiment. With $85 oil and rising that will change to very positive. Besides the 'awful' hedges as you call them provide significant de-risking to holders of the equity.

The continuing investigation will no doubt be into Unaoil, which is where the Petrofac charges were brought from.

Still a lot of stock out on loan here that needs to be repaid by the shorters.

Portfolio managers purchased the equivalent of 42 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Sept. 28, according to records published by regulators and exchanges. Purchases over the last six weeks have totaled 170 million barrels, reversing more than half of the earlier sales of 268 million barrels over the previous ten weeks.
he total number of short positions has fallen to its lowest level since late 2019 and is in the 20th percentile for all weeks since the start of 2013, as fears about the coronavirus hitting oil demand have evaporated
Across all six contracts, portfolio managers have a combined net long position of 847 million barrels, which is in the 76th percentile since 2013.
www zerohedge com/markets/kemp-hedge-funds-flock-oil-energy-shortages-worsen

BloodyRedBaron,

How much is the $100 Bill you had in your pocket in 2010 now worth ?
M1 money supply in 2010 approx $1.5 Trillion in 2017 approx $3.2 Trillion in 2021 approx $6.5 Trillion
www shadowstats com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply

Hedgefunds flock to oil as energy shortages worsen

Purchases over the last six weeks have totaled 170 million barrels, reversing more than half of the earlier sales of 268 million barrels over the previous ten weeks.

The total number of short positions has fallen to its lowest level since late 2019 and is in the 20th percentile for all weeks since the start of 2013, as fears about the coronavirus hitting oil demand have evaporated.

In the latest week, funds boosted positions in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+21 million barrels), Brent (+9 million), European gas oil (+11 million) and U.S. gasoline (+3 million), reducing them slightly only in U.S. diesel (-3 million).

Across all six contracts, portfolio managers have a combined net long position of 847 million barrels, which is in the 76th percentile since 2013

www zerohedge com/markets/kemp-hedge-funds-flock-oil-energy-shortages-worsen

Isn't the continuing investigation into Unaoil ?

MaryBr190,

They are good for a laugh, I remember some of them had £37 and £42 a share for Metro Bank ! They also had quite high valuations for Carillion and Patisserie Valerie.

bonker99,

I very much do take notice of those numbers, up to 14.3% on Petrofac for example and they showed me 29% plus on Premier Oil when ARCM didn't declare their big short which eventually lead to the big cheap takeover where bond holders/ and shareholders lost $ Billions.

Nigelbonger,

The hedgies and shorters will feed news stories to the news outlets from their own research so the news outlets don't have to do their own research, thats just how it works now.

Looks like I was wrong about new shorts. Total stock on loan was 3.05% at end Sept 21 unchanged from 3.05% end Aug 21

So must be some selling pressure only.

BloodyRedBaron,

I do hope you are not assuming that Saudi can ramp up production to the levels they have stated. This is quite well known in oil industry circles to be not possible.

Stock on loan here was down to 6.48% at end Sept 21 down from 7.1 at end Aug 21

The stock on loan here was 14.3% at end Sept 21
Which had increased from approx 10% the month before. Don't let them have your shares too cheap this will be 300p plus In my view