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What's going to happen to the SP on Monday once all the shops again???
Maybe even Friday in anticipation.....
Testing the teens again???
Bank of America downgrade shortly too...
IMO/DYOH
"My guess is that the legal action will be brought to an end now as litigation doesn't look like Softbank's style" - AllAtSea
"maybe SoftBank's acquisition will result in a review of the patent case." - Chilting
"Might SoftBank push to collaborate with Ocado via offering to withdraw the courtcase" - Valueplay
ROFLMAO - this board is just GREAT!
I know you guys struggle with maths and stuff, but how does a new MINORITY shareholder influence the company to stop litigating???
And while i'm popping your "end of the court case fantasy", you do realise THL have retained MAJORITY ownership?
Smart by THL - the've just spread their risk.
You can argue far more easily that Softbank have invested here BECAUSE of the court case, not despite it. They don't even need a majority stake to do that do they?!
And they CERTAINLY would have got a better look at the documents than any of us...
DYOH IMO
"Anyone would face a lot of hurdles if they wanted to purchase 40% of Ocado."
- Getting out of the straight jacket and padded cell for starters....
Wow!
Softbank must be pretty sure about Autostore's chances in patent litigation.
Fair play @valueplay for posting negative news.
"I think that, every time you saw the word EBITDA [earnings], you should substitute the word “bull****” earnings."
Charlie Munger
Particularly true of businesses with high CAPEX like Ocado.
Clue: It's something to do with the "D".
Even using EBITDA, still negative @Ocado.
DYOH
Ooooh, it's like countdown on here this morning...
200 per share. Here goes.
Multiply the profit by any PER figure you feel comfortable with gives zero...
Add the book price per share 239 gives 239
Adjust BVPS by impairments for, take your pick:
a) Excess price paid for US robotics company (3.75 x sales TOPS);
b) Value of IP - might not be company's patent;
c) Reversal of capitalised staff costs (£90mill last year was it)... Sketchy in my book. Just about Ok if the company was profitble but as it isn't so just masks train wreck EPS, Free cashflow per share etc.
call it 39p per share of impairments.. gives you 200 per share!
You're welcome.
Can we see your calcs for 2100 per share anyone?
Re: Farm-in: Biggest *hint* yet it's PetroPar.
What a coup! Save so much agro with licencing moving forward.
"The agreements will be conditional agreements that will be subject to consent of the relevant Ministry. Whilst this may be a matter of time, ultimately, taking into account the identity of the party no material issue is contemplated in this regard."
3rd wave putting a bit of wind in the sails of the SP here.
Time to sell the dips and buy the next peak.
Thanks for playing.
Ocado business model is essentially to spend a LOT of money re-introducing milkrounds.
Remind me why milkmen went extinct?
They had: Bigger customer numbers / local CFC's / Electric delivery vehicles / Gig economy employees.
They had it all.
What went wrong???
Value,
I see. So Amazon threat is driving solutions business sales.
Interesting that Tim, (your mate "Tim" - Steiner?) was widely reported yesterday as saying Amazon was not a threat.
One of you MUST be wrong...
IMO DYOH
Shaggers, you're right to highlight the company's comments about the headwinds at the solutions business.
The doubling of the SP was caused by speculation on the company's prospects, particularly the solutions business, because of covid.
The company have said the solutions business has been affected by the pandemic, not that it's prospects have improved.
I don't accept the company's excuse/explanation that travel difficulties are to blame as there were no travel restrictions that would have prevented buyers inspecting "the kit".
However, I don't need to dispute the reason/excuse given by the company for the warning about underperformance of the solutions business. What I can do is discount the SP accordingly.
Sensibly this should include ALL the post-covid speculative gains.
I know some struggle to accept any of this could be true, but the market is carrying on re-rating this whether they wake up or not.
SP is -31% down.
IMO DYOH
Shorters diary dates:
April/May
re-rates from Berenberg and BOA? Both currently out of step with SP so slashing of target price inevitable. SP likely to drift lower on sentiment.
Lockdown easing.
Grocery market shopping preferences trending back to pre-lockdown patterns.
Increase in short interest
Director's selling - they have form.
July: - Another trading update.
Lockdown will be lifted.
Summer of luuuuuurv. New roaring 20's.
Things to look out for: Lower % of grocery market for online. Falling customer numbers. Lower number of orders. Smaller basket size.
Profit??? (doubtful).
Losses widening,
Increased CAPEX.
Increasing OPEX,
More Overpriced acquisitions burning through the cash.
More mission creep.
Underwhelming sales for solutions business. - haven't had a deal for a LONG time now. Why?
Underwhelming pipeline for solutions business.
Increase in short interest
etc etc etc
IMO DYOH
Kicker is in the outlook:
"Rates of sales and EBITDA growth in future quarters will reflect annualisation against periods of Covid-19 related lockdown experienced in FY20 and, by comparison, the extent to which Ocado Retail returns to a 'normalised' trading week..."
This is cryptic for:
"Lockdown sales were exceptional, we expect future quarters to be worse (by comparison) depending on factors completely out of our control such as how much life returns to normal."
This isn't what the market expects to hear from "growth companies" with "growth valuations".
SP is free to drift down here now across the summer.
IMO DYOH
The SP is crawling up here as a few speculators get in ahead of the Trading update hoping for a quick 10%.
Ocado trading updates usually no more than "Basket size blah blah, number of baskets blah blah blah" which isn't going to excite the market.
Speculators sell and move on. SP dips.
LTH's will think it was an excellent update and cannot understand why the SP is testing 2000 again.
There will be moans of "Why is the SP going down when the TU was good IMO" and "The MMs /II's/shorters are manipulating the SP lower blah blah".
Bottom line here, the Mcap is worth no more than £5bn (being generous) -
Do the maths.....
Despite all the posts every day this week, "NASDAQ Futures Blah blah" and "NASDAQ flying blah blah", the SP has "rallied" 22p from last Friday's close.
Could end up drifting another 2% this week.
Target price for close tomorrow 2046 then.
SP was headed south here way before NASDAQ woes.
I wouldn't pin my hopes on the two being particularly closely correlated.
SP seems quite happy to move independently of that index on unwelcome news.
Next news here on 18th: An underwhelming update and 2 word storm brewing on horizon:
-Amazon Fresh-
Unconvincing pullback today. Like the market nervous about upcoming trading update.
Don't think it would take much to test 2000again and send the SP back to teens IMO.
Kepler Cheveraux started coverage this month: Target price 1646
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3256897&headline=OCDGF-Ocado-Group-initiated-with-a-Reduce-at-Kepler-Cheuvreux
Own up...
Who else thought..... FARM IN!!!!!
Thought the SP might test 2000 this week. Didn't think it would be within 1st hour on Monday.
Suckers rally to be expected.
Auction and after hours trading look bearish.
Think this might test 2000 again and head lower IMO.
I'm happy with another red day and to see the SP drifting lower.
IMO DYOH
Watch out for those doutghers driving their new Bentley's in a few months....