Member Info for ashton

Remember Free advice ....... I don't hold shares, I have in the past.

Grafton Group

Model update – another earnings upgrade of substance

We are increasing our 2020 EPS forecast by 26% and next year’s estimate by 5%. The latter (56p) means the latest forecast is 24% higher than what was envisaged back in May. It is clear some of
Graton’s leading banners – such as Selco and Woodie’s – are emerging from the pandemic with an enhanced proposition and competitive position. This is an endorsement of Grafton’s longer-term prospects as is the burgeoning net cash build. The stock has done well recently – up over 20% in the past month – but we see no reason why it cannot kick on beyond the 900p level.

RNS notification of a position on the way in the next couple of weeks? There is great value here. Closed in Dublin €1.308. Hopefully the SP will be higher when results are announced the 1st week of March. GLA

Now 100% higher that the year inter-day low. Needs to double from here in 2021.

Now 100% higher that the year interest low. Needs to double from here in 2021.

Share price continues to recover very slowly, €1.23 in Dublin this morning. Could be quite some time before we see €2.57. The next Dole update will be telling. GLTA

Just gone to €2.258, did I miss something?

I wonder what their average price is? They don't like to loose money. I suspect that a large chunk of their holding has been acquired since the year low of €1.281.

The year low (interday) was €1.281, €2.281 is insight. I'm still showing a very large loss however the SP is heading in the right direction. Not tempted to average down, did that when the SP was much higher. Banks seem to be back in favour. GLTA

We were back to 7 cent pre consolidation for a couple if seconds! Onwards & upwards!

IMS is due late next week. Someone buying in anticipation of some positive news? Hope so. Would really like to see the SP north of €2.

I think we should pass on the opportunity, a better fit for AIB

Passed the local Woodies this afternoon, with further lockdown probably on the way there was a large queue waiting to enter the shop.

Goodbody Morning WrapPage 201 Oct. 20Total Produce Attractive valuation further illustrated by Mission Produce IPO Mission Produce (AVO US), the global avocado grower and distributor, priced its stock last night ahead of its IPO today. The stock was priced at $12 (vs $15-17 touted range) which values the company on an EV/EBITDA multiple of c.8x on the 2019 outcome (11x PE). However, profitability that year was called out as abnormally high due to a non-recurring fall in sourcing costs. The multiple based on this year’s estimated EBITDA is closer to 12x (19x PE).

The business has been growing strongly delivering a revenue CAGR of 14% p.a. since 2009 according to the S1 IPO document, with the global market expected to continue growing c.6% p.a. out to 2026. From our back of the envelope calculations it has normalised EBITDA margin of around 10% (backward integrated and takes ownership of produce as well so earns higher margin).

While we note Total Produce’s growth has been +5% p.a. since 2009 (+10% p.a. inc Dole) with a 2.5% EBITDA margin (3.5% inc. Dole), we consider its business profile to be better diversified from both a geography and product perspective. This contributed to the resilient performance seen in its most recent H1 update. Furthermore, Total Produce is trading on just 7.5x FY21 PE and c.6.5x FY21 EV/EBITDA (inc. share of Dole net debt & EBITDA), which is a significant discount to the valuation placed on Mission Produce.

While priced lower than expected, Mission Produce has still listed at a substantial premium to Total Produce which, in our view, illustrates the severe disconnect between the company's strong underlying fundamentals and its current share price / valuation

What comes around goes around.

Here's a thought, what if Trumpy pops his clogs?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/bank-of-ireland-chief-economy-is-showing-positive-signs-but-banks-will-feel-the-brunt.html

E1.64 earlier, now E1.651. AIB now a penny stock

Try Degiro or a Dublin broker.

Further comment from Davy this morning. (Remember free advice .......)

Total Produce
Equity materially divorced from fundamentals
The underperformance of the Total Produce equity is materially divorced from recent operational execution and delivery. Strong first-half trading is evidence of an agile economic model and resilient category. We believe such quality and defensive attributes are being overlooked by the market – in addition to the growth opportunity of Dole and flexibility afforded by a prudent deal structure. We see material upside to the equity (60-70%) and believe the valuation discount to peers is unwarranted. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.

Total Produce

Strong execution and category resilience drive impressive H1 out-turn

Total Produce’s interim results highlight the critical importance of the produce category to consumers and the relevancy of its operating model to B2B partners. Against an acutely challenging backdrop (and historical 20-25% exposure to the food service channel), flat like-for-like (LFL) sales through the first half is a stand-out performance. With a robust profit performance and more constructive outlook, we will nudge up our EPS by 2-3% (which captures an FX headwind). Trading on 8.1x FY 2020 EPS, there is a material dislocation between the equity and fundamentals and we reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating.