Cantor Fitzgeraldcomment 6th March10 Mar 2020 14:36
Total Produce released FY 2019 financial results yesterday morning, reporting that revenue increased by 22% to €6.2bn, adjusted EBITDA increased by 52% to €202.8m and adjusted earnings per share increased by 41% to 14.86c driven predominantly by Dole asits European business reported a dip in profitability. Management raised the final dividend by 2.5% to 2.577c, bringing the fulldividend to 3.49c (2.7% dividend yield). North America now accounts for 47% of group revenue, Europe accounts for 46% and theROW accounts for 7%. Group net debt closed the period at €220m. Free cash flow and operating cash flow increased by c.10-15% in 2019 which is probably a fair reflection of overall group performance. 2019 was the first full year contribution from Total Produce 45% stake in Dole, as 2018 only included a five month contribution.Notable from the result was the strong performance of the groups international division which reported an 18% surge in profits, weakness in the Europe-non Eurozone division which reported a 20% contraction in profits due to competition in Holland vegetable/salad markets and the surge in revenue and profits from the groups Dole share exposure.Additionally the surge in Total Produceprofit margin as a result of the contribution from Dole and International division was notable.CommentTotal Produce has a market cap currently of €505m and an enterprise value of €745m implying the group trades on 9.2x earningsand 3.6x EV/EBITDA. The cheap valuations are a function of investor concern about Total Produce's exposure to Dole which in itself has $1.28bn of net debt (-$63m YoY). Dole's net debt to EBITDA is 5.2x. Our fair value for Total Produce is 11x 2020 earnings per share of 15c which implies €1.65 fair value. A catalyst for a move up to our fair value in the short term would be Dole selling non-core assets to reduce its gearing and an improvement in European profits. Longer term, our fair value is over €2 as Dole gearing comes down, Total Produce earnings grow and Dole gets consolidated into Total Produce.