Woodies re-opens on Monday. They will be busy.
E1.11 in Dublin this morning, a long way shy of all time high of E2.57. I can wait.
Heard from a wine supplier, he expects 30% of restaurants will not reopen.
The last trade in Dublin was 1.02! Hopefully we will remain on an upward path.
Just checked, .985 in Dublin. How long before we are no longer a penny stock?
On the RTE lunchtime news, both Dublin & Cork ports, the largest in the country, report increase in food imports. People have to eat. There is value in Total Produce. It will take quite a few years till we see €2.57 again.
Not currently invested in this stock, just a positive note, I drop past the local branch of Woodies on Sunday afternoon, the car park was jammers! Gardening and home decor in full swing.
Total Produce released FY 2019 financial results yesterday morning, reporting that revenue increased by 22% to €6.2bn, adjusted EBITDA increased by 52% to €202.8m and adjusted earnings per share increased by 41% to 14.86c driven predominantly by Dole asits European business reported a dip in profitability. Management raised the final dividend by 2.5% to 2.577c, bringing the fulldividend to 3.49c (2.7% dividend yield). North America now accounts for 47% of group revenue, Europe accounts for 46% and theROW accounts for 7%. Group net debt closed the period at €220m. Free cash flow and operating cash flow increased by c.10-15% in 2019 which is probably a fair reflection of overall group performance. 2019 was the first full year contribution from Total Produce 45% stake in Dole, as 2018 only included a five month contribution.Notable from the result was the strong performance of the groups international division which reported an 18% surge in profits, weakness in the Europe-non Eurozone division which reported a 20% contraction in profits due to competition in Holland vegetable/salad markets and the surge in revenue and profits from the groups Dole share exposure.Additionally the surge in Total Produceprofit margin as a result of the contribution from Dole and International division was notable.CommentTotal Produce has a market cap currently of €505m and an enterprise value of €745m implying the group trades on 9.2x earningsand 3.6x EV/EBITDA. The cheap valuations are a function of investor concern about Total Produce's exposure to Dole which in itself has $1.28bn of net debt (-$63m YoY). Dole's net debt to EBITDA is 5.2x. Our fair value for Total Produce is 11x 2020 earnings per share of 15c which implies €1.65 fair value. A catalyst for a move up to our fair value in the short term would be Dole selling non-core assets to reduce its gearing and an improvement in European profits. Longer term, our fair value is over €2 as Dole gearing comes down, Total Produce earnings grow and Dole gets consolidated into Total Produce.
Bank of Ireland Forecast changes
While Bank of Ireland (BIRG) continues to make progress on areas within its control, the challenging market conditions and volatility have intensified. Yet BIRG is well placed to face into the current uncertainties, with ongoing reductions in absolute cost levels and capital well in excess of its current regulatory minimum. Based on our new forecasts, we revise our price target to €5.70 (from €6.33).