Matd23 Oct 2024 19:15
RAY
you obviously haven’t scrolled back enough today velocoraptor 5.11. 6.11 this morning 👍
That flow rate won't be expected on production. I have been very conservative on purpose, modern frack.amd we may see 500 bopd. There is plenty of blue sky. I just don't think the company is selling the story very well currently. There is A LOT of oil and its cheap and easy to extract.
The government wants an extra 84000 barrels a month for the refinery. That's 166 wells at 300 bopd.
Block 11 and some of the earlier drills probably warrant further testing in time once we have steady state production of 1500 to 2000 barrels a day.
elocoraptor
Posts: 54
Price: 2.425
Strong Buy
Important note re PSCToday 05:11
I have been looking back at the PSC and our expenditure.
From my calculations we have spent about 20M on getting to production. Under the terms of the PSC, and as i read it, we will not have to pay any PSC payments for at least 1 or 2 years pending Heron 2 coming online (if and when). Then 3,4,5,6 etc
Revenue (per well) will be 650000 USD per month (less minor costs)
Assuming 70 a barrel and 300 a day production
Let's assume we don't get Heron 2 on production until March .
So our revenue will be
December to March 650000 USD /month 2.6M
April to December 1300000 USD /month 10.4M
December to December 13M USD
ZERO PSC payments due.
Add in Heron 3,4,5,6 (one well every month) another 650,000 USD a month.
30 million ish barrels recoverable @70 a barrel = 2.1 billion dollars in oil in place
@100 oil = 3 Billion USD
@150 oil =4.5 Billion USD
This is off one structure in one block
Add in massive renewable projects (shovel ready 2025)
Pipeline to new refinery 2026
Fast forward Dec next year and allow a bit of blue sky
10 wells 300 barrels a day $100 a barrel oil.
100M USD revenue
Current market cap 36M pounds.
STRONG BUY , you better believe it
The poimt is , the numbers are pretty staggering for a 36M market cap company