Member Info for asclypius

That's not the way it works, Mr Riddler. I will now politely ignore you. So long.

I said in my post that the losses and other events since then need to be estimated. The share price was 14.5p when those accounts were published. Please improve the quality of your arguments or find someone else to debate!

Numbers for Albermarle from the Annual Report for June 2013: Net Income: £3.5m (operating profit was £6.7m after the subtraction of £4.6m of one-off items, £11.3m operating profit before those items). Net Cash Inflow from Operations minus Net Cash Outflow from Investments: £3.8m Current Assets: £94.3m Total Liabilities: £63.7m Net Current Asset Value: £30.6m Outstanding Leases: £37.9m Short-term losses, advisory and restructuring fees and lease breaks all need to be estimated and subtracted from the NCAV to get a possible liquidation value. To the extent that profitable units are sold as going concerns, the sale price will be higher and the lease break costs lower. This is what real financial analysis looks like. I invite you to try it some time!

Do you understand that these aren't proper arguments?

This is all old ground, we've discussed this before and I've explained that while you may eventually be right that there is zero equity value, you have not presented a proper argument. I read the entire annual report too. Suppose I buy a field for £1m in the open market, using borrowings of £500,000. It then turns out that I don't know how to turn it into a farm. I have no cash and no earnings. I break my banking covenants and the bank asks for its money back immediately. I can't pay. I go into administration. The field is sold by auction behalf of the creditor. £1m is raised. Outcome: the bank gets £500,000 back. And I get £500,000 after the deduction of fees by the administrator. Broken covenants and a loan repayment which can't be made on time do not imply zero surplus value. You need a stronger argument to prove what you are claiming.

As already discussed, you would have advised punters to avoid Raymarine at 2p. Today's RNS doesn't change my valuation of Albemarle. I already expected "limited value", and I was ready for the possibility of an administration when I opened the position, as anybody who invested recently should have been. And it's certainly a good thing for shareholders that the Board didn't accept a very poor offer. It would be far more helpful if you showed your calculations to confirm zero residual value for shareholders but I know that you won't do that.

Are you psychologically/financially capable of seeing this enter into administration and bearing the risk of a return of -100%? I am capable of that, and therefore I am not selling. As a counter-example which might generate some proper analysis here, I would again draw people's attention to Raymarine, which was in breach of its banking covenants for nearly a year before a pre-pack administration saw a return to shareholders many multiples of the share price lows (buyout at 19.5p, share price low 1.3p). http://www.slaughterandmay.com/what-we-do/client-case-studies/raymarine-plc-pre-packaged-administration-sale.aspx

I hope you shorted it heavily and can now retire.

I'm glad they didn't accept a derisory bid. I said several weeks ago that I would prefer administration than to give the company away for a price that was too cheap. Not for the faint-hearted but shareholders who've been buying at distressed share prices (i.e. at prices which already expected "limited value" for shareholders) could still get a return here. The possibility of a return of -100% remains, as it has done for months. Good luck.

I did not expect this share to get back to these cheap levels but then again it should not be a surprise that another one of the large insiders exited - which was apparently the purpose of the flotation (although we don't know anything for sure about who these insiders are). So what next? Either the company is legitimate and performs in some non-catastrophic way, and we earn massive percentage returns from the current levels (300%+), or we've been stung by some sort of quasi-criminal operation, the insiders know that the company is worthless, and we lose everything. An intermediate outcome is less likely than one of these extremes. I still think the most likely truth is that this is a company of mediocre or moderate quality, with some governance and potential legal issues, but which is still worth a trailing P/E of about 4-5x to UK investors. But I won't be adding to my investment, certainly not unless the share price falls significantly again from here (e.g. to 30p-40p). I can't afford to be concentrated any more inside this single situation. A P/E of 1 ought to be unsustainable - this surely has to be resolved before too long either through a radical share price re-rating higher or through the admission of fraud and worthlessness. Hopefully the next annual report in c. 4 months, accompanied by a strong dividend declaration, proves to be the positive catalyst for those of us who have been holding this for a while. Disclaimer: I might buy or sell at any time, do your own research, this is all IMHO.

Nothing is certain to be published until the preliminary Annual Report, which could be May or June.

New General Manager, Operations: "Jorge was General Manager of Compañía Minera Maricunga, Superintendent of Mines at Compañía Minera Zaldívar (prior to Barrick’s acquisition), as a production geologist for Codelco at their Chuquicamata mine and an exploration geologist for Renison Goldfields in Australia." New VP, Planning and Corporate Development: "During his time with Canaccord he advised on approximately US$7.5 billion worth of transactions, including financings, M&A, corporate advisory and debt & commodity related finance. " New Legal Counsel & Company Secretary: "He has over 11 years of legal experience at recognized law firms where he advised on corporate governance, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, project finance, contingency control, business law and contracts, and negotiation of complex agreements, to international and local corporations from different industries, including energy and mining." I might be going crazy, but it looks like this executive team would be able to engineer the takeover of Orosur by a gold major. I wonder if that's the plan.

Two companies which produce clothes for young people: Naibu Global: net income £29m, market cap £40m. ASOS: net income £41m, market cap £5,780m. The second company is squeaky clean, whereas the first company is owed £1m by the chairman's mother, and his sister is CFO. But I still think I'd prefer to buy the first one.

I have read all the reports, including the admission document, and asked some Chinese friends what their opinions are. In the end, I've come to the opinion that there is a risk of fraud here, and the risk is probably a little higher than the risk associated with other Chinese companies I've looked at. There is also political and legal risk associated with the business. However, fraud does not mean that the company is completely worthless. It is trading at a discount of about 90% against where it might be without such concerns. Even if fraudulent activity took place which reduced the value of the company by half, it would still be an 80% discount against fair value. This stock is a significant percentage of my portfolio because I think the special concerns people have about this company would be adequately priced in at a P/E of 4 or 5. Betting against the company at the current levels is not just betting that it is fraudulent or exposed to special risks, but that those things will destroy more than 90% of the value. That's a very strong sort of view and I think it needs a smoking gun piece of evidence to back it up. Without that, I intend to stay long. I might change my mind at any time, buy or sell or at any time, do your own research, etc.

We had interim results in September and a trading update in December - check RNS page.

You're right, it could have been them today - in which case they would still have a few more to sell. Four months to wait until the next Annual Report and dividend declaration.

1,800,000 shares sold in total after the auction, all of them around 60p. My guess is that it was both of the entities mentioned in my previous message. So maybe another 1,200,000 shares to sell.

Took the opportunity to sell another 350,000 shares @ 60p at 16:30. 1,450,000 shares sold today - could be Constant Best or Superior Ideas.

Volume more like 6-7% of free float.

Can't see any bids, volume so far today might be 3% of the free float. No fundamental news. I have no reason to sell my holding.