We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Worldquant reduce a tad but JP Morgan keep up the sellside pressure increasing their short to 0.67%. Total declared shorts now at 3.44%
Worldquant single-handedly bringing down the SP, increasing their short to 1.31%. Total declared shorts now at 3.32%.
Worldquant are still upping their short, now at 1.24%. Total declared shorts @3.23%
We know for a fact that the insurance won't be covering all the costs, that infrastructure associated with the testing and future connection certainly isn't covered and that ZPHR has to pay everything up front just like a normal insurance claim.
What only ZPHR know are the figures involved and whether they have enough in the current account, or access to additional resources, to cover all parts of this phase.
Iceman - If you call yourself an investor... DYOR!
Iceman trying to be clever, but just advertising that he can't do maths.. ideally suits him investing in shares
'Someone' is accumulating, Flat Footed LLC. The RNS was out a few days ago @ over 5%.
Hedgies vs Hedgies, interesting battle 🤓
Whilst everything talked about by ZPHR sounds like good progress is being made, it's the things not mentioned that interests me more at the moment, hence I'm staying firmly on the fence for now.
In the H1 report published 29.09.2023 they spoke of Cash and Cash Equivalents of $6.2m which had dropped to $3.5m as at 5.09.2023. Their Admin alone runs at $3m per H ($0.5m pcm).
18.10.2023 they committed $600k cash to the Salt Wash Field.
1.11.2023 they confirmed the RCF was maxed out at $13m and they had further loans of $11.7m but failed to mention the $8m bridging loan (which 'owns' the Slawson Wells and has a 12% interest rate and 1% royalty rate to the mystery family office).
In short, they may keep re-iterating that the 36-2R is fully funded by insurance but there's been no mention of their bank balance for 5 months now and that's a concern.
Considering the positive sentiment around the Avayler software, maybe they need some of those employess looking at their internal finance reporting. They had over 3 weeks of January data when they gave their last T/U!
Short currently burning old chap?
LT what Porky doesn't come clean with is the fact that he came into this share at a much much higher level during the covid boom when APTA was caught in the over-dependendence whirlwind of DVRG (which I think you're familiar with).
This is where he gets some of his (overly bias?) views from.
Betaville bid rumours, last time Northgate came knocking there was no cash.
Needs to be for this level of speculation/movement
Found by evoque92 on advfn:
https://angling-international.com/2024/02/10/angling-direct-announces-acquisition-and-opens-49th-store/
Jonas/bigruss you were warned all along about your over-enthusiasm here, perhaps being a bit too trusting of some twitter 'gurus'?
This has always been a high risk 'binary' share based on the timing of deals signed and progressed versus the cash from the raise.
As for should you average down/buy in LTB, that's an easy answer, only risk what you can AFFORD TO LOSE for a share like this.
What's actually going to unfold here?
My thoughts:
Very little big investor buy in at these levels (why should they when they will have first opportunity at a possible fund raise?)
Not sure about Directors, would be good to see but they may be limited by contract negotiation awareness or simply the above.
Dr Tolley is not interested in another fund raise. He's gone from 80% ownership to 3.59% and won't be wanting to lose more so at least we know he will be pushing hard.
We know that the cost reductions have gone to plan but the contract aquisition hasn't, so more of the fund raise has been spent earlier.
Relationships with repeat customers seem to be coming on well and growing (but will they be fast enough?).
How much in/left by year end (30th june) then ? Well worst case scenario (no money in) is £300k pcm burn x 5 months which would leave £600k cash.
They have stated that they expect the currrent signed deals to be processed by 30th June (£1.4m) plus a proportion of current pipeline stuff "through the laboratory before the end of the financial year" but they don't say 'finished, billed and paid for', so I'll stay on the sceptical side and keep to the £1.4m gross figure.
My best guess then is they have around a 60% margin which if set against the £1.4m would mean £840k net to offset against the £1.5m outgoings leaving a net burn of £660k i.e. a final cash balance of £1.44m.
So even without any massive contracts in the next few months they should 'survive' and, as they have stated, have sufficient cash to go well into FY25 by which time you would expect them to have nailed some better contracts that hopefully they can get a RCF for should they require it.
If they get a big contract in the meantime, well they're pretty much around the corner.
I personally am not averaging down more at the mo (AV 1.1) as I have no more 'high-risk ccash' at the moment, but I am hopeful inclined to think we'll see another contract RNS before the end of Feb.
If, buts and maybe's, never risk what you can't afford to lose.
Well, well, well if it isn't the two investors who lost their shirts on the apta plunge from £1 to 1p who are now claiming to be sage's on the company...
Or just the usual b/s from the pump crew which has reapeatedly backfired....
EarlofAim
Posts: 11,498
Price: 0.775
No Opinion
RE: Doing the mathsToday 12:13
So they need to make £300k a month just to break even… in this market that is going to be near impossible imo, why don’t directors take pay in shares that would be a start, it’s just another gravy train
LOL are you Flash in poor disguise?
I really don't understand all this supposed concern about 'cash burn' when it's the one thing that they have been bang right about. They resized the company and stuck to it, reducing management/directors salaries too and replacing with share options that only come in from 4p.
It's far from a gravy train too with Dr Tolley going from 80% ownership to 3.59%, so he clearly hasn't done well and is certainly not interested in another fund raise!
This company is simply about the orders it can now get in and build. Simple as that.
If you think they're going to get them in, then punt away.
They are now at the inflexion point where as little as one order will ensure survival whilst having 11 months cash ahead.
Flash, they signed £0.8m of deals in Dec alone. "In this market"? This market (aptamers) is huge and growing, no negative there, just long term relationships to build for the biggest deals.
The Directors also took a massive pay cut in August and changed to share options which are only available at 4p and upwards so they're ahead of you there.
The company has annualised costs of £3.6m or £300k pcm.
They have £2.1m in the bank.
That's all costs covered with no income for 7 months until August 2024.
They have £1.4m of contracts signed which is just over 4 months money.
That takes them to Dec 24 which is well into FY25 as they have stated (not 2025 calendar yr as some lazy reading is saying).
So any new deal from now extends the 'runway' by 1 month for each £300k of value and they have 11 months of cash/business to go on.