The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
They exceeded their 2022 target - was 5, they got over 6. 2023 they have guided on and we can see where the miners will be installed. They will try and beat the EH guidance. At the end of 2023 we'll know how they went.
Personally I'd prefer they quit the expansion for a moment and bought back some shares but that's not what will happen.
Did they hit the 2022 targets? Yes. Has 2023 finished? No.
If there is a bull across markets followed by a heavy crash back down to earth I don't think the miners will get away with it next time.
Yes and spring is the time to sign them according to CleanSpark. Gas is at 2.5 now and still dropping.
They have 50MW being built now (live late spring), and a further 150 end of year. Guidance of 350k per MW for the latter ($52.5 mil).
Next to no debt, vs MARA's crazy levels of debt. It may be at 1% but you still have to pay it back.
The way the market has valued the two companies is insane.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html
Cleanspark has delivered, and more importantly energised, EH in a timely manner. The change in guidance was down to Lancium not fulfilling their pledge and was shared to market as soon as known - hosted model is unreliable. I suspect they'll achieve the hash via another method, however if this is the start of a bull run I'm looking for it doesn't really matter as timelines mean that all this activity would be too late. Natural gas right down now and CLSK will shortly sign PPA's to reduce their cost of production.
Fred needs to get machines hashing and is currently painted into a corner. A bull market will save him.
RIOT may now have taken the position of sector leader. Expecting their monthly update after hours today - possible they've mined over 800 but will see.
The machines have to hashing to be any worth. They are also worth less than what they paid for them just now.
CLSK was 98% uptime. If they had managed 99% it would have been over 700. Although 98% for Jan can't complain.
Bonus wise neither MARA or CLSK are good, both are very generous as we'll see in the next quarterlies. Although CLSK is performing well operationally where MARA isn't.
Abu Dhabi, $406mil for a 250MW build out sounds very expensive - unless that is meant to include machines. Assume this is where MARA's boxed machines will go?
From MARA's end 2020 report:
"With delivery of all 100,500 miners currently on order (which delivery and installation is expected to be
complete by January 31, 2022, Marathon expects to generate approximately 11.8 EH/s"
A year after their target date and they are still on 7.3. Hard to believe anything they say target wise.
Interesting regarding the lack of shares available for trade given the volume they get. If BTC does break through 25.5 I think it's clear air to 30, which would be turbo charged by closing shorts. Would 30k see a 2bil mcap for RIOT and MARA?
And looks like Blackrock has topped up on their CLSK holding:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364742/000130655023006431/us18452b2097_020123.txt
I know a guy that had 2mil Argo shares. Didn't end well unfortunately. Good luck PI. Make sure you've thought through an exit strategy.
I'm looking for BTC to move to 30 in the coming week or two. If so we'll see which miners run the fastest.
Compensation very generous for CLSK. However the 24mil figure was mostly share based and think it was at $12 a share or something, so the cash now figure is lower.
For me, miners are for buying at the start of the bull, and selling at the end of the bull. Working out these two points is tricky of course. I was pretty new to shares and Bitcoin when I first got invested with Argo, now having gone through a cycle it's clear that they aren't for holding long term. They'll always need more funds and continue to bleed cash, there'll always be new and better competition. I would swing trade if I knew how to, but think I would mess it up. I will be moving from miner to miner though as I see value.