DOOOOOMED19 Nov 2020 23:02
Will BP share price recover to pre Covid 19 levels, I hope so!! My portfolio was over half in oil and gas and as such the downside losses from the pandemic have been ‘eye watering’. BP at today’s SP is still my largest single holding. Ironically when Bernard Looney took over and increased dividends in Q3 and Q4 2019 I topped up generously, he said the increased dividend was sustainable. At the time things were looking a bit tricky with over supply of oil due to US shale increased production plus extra green energy growth and anti fossil fuel sentiment from the fossil fuel fraternity. Even so in early February before Covid the SP could have moved moderately either way up or down. (Not surprising Bernard Looney was a bit ahead of the game and sold his £7 Million holding in BP in mid 2018/2019, thus spared himself the pain of seeing the same shares at £3 Million today)
BP’s future is debatable but I’m sticking with the company for certainly 2/3 years. (With a price average of £5 my hands are tied somewhat. I have a similar story in my RDS shares as well)
It is hard to think of any two companies better placed to become new ‘Energy Suppliers’ in the long road transformation to low carbon release fossil fuels and the new ‘renewable energy options’. Consider these company’s world network infrastructures and over a century of highly respected contacts, not to mention over 62,000 filling stations across both companies. Remembered the super high new technology and expertise both these companies have at their fingertips and hopefully generous free cash flow.
The most important factor to achieve SP recovery and successful energy transition is a balanced supply/demand market in oil and gas along with price. Owing to greatly improved mining costs through technology a price for oil of average $55 per barrel and natural gas of 2.5/ 3.0 is very workable (I would think)
Some pointers that might help share price and dividend sustainability and even growth for a long term future. No Capex for new oil exploration, (gas might be OK exception for a period). Capex only used in oil and gas market to exploit large existing owned reserves in order to achieve absolute maximum return on capital. Capex on all renewable energy projects are to be with total ‘due dilligence’ based on best speedily achieved long term return on capital possible. Take full advantage of existing energy infrastructure networks, skills and technologies and existing worldwide goodwill when choosing new projects. Don’t concede on profit oriented policies so as to meet political or focus group pressures.