Member Info for Archy147

Still keeping an eye on this after selling as it remains my favourite COVID bounce-back share and will always have a warm place in my heart for the gains it delivered :) :)

Last time it drifted down from 295p to 270p before the offer got re-stated. Entirely predictable it’s happening again....

I think if it gets back to 270 again I’d be tempted to buy back in hope of a cheeky quick gain. If I was a holder who’d decided to remain in (TWICE) at 295p I would be holding in the expectation that the offer will very likely (but not certainly) be finalised soon. It’s the fact it’s not 100% certain that’s seeing the gradual drift down over time, but nothing to be unduly concerned about IMO.

This seems to have followed the travel-related stocks down today, eg IAG, RR, MNZS

Thing is, all of those are still showing massive gains since “V” day on 9 November last year, whilst Bab**** is now back to the levels it was before the vaccines were announced! I can’t figure this share out.

How on earth did that post get 11 recommendations lol

Isn't it always the way. Can't think of any share in my portfolio that has actually gone up on results day so far this year! Every time, results out = price going down. Really must start acting upon this trend.

Anway, looks like a good buying/topping up opportunity now

Gents, you'll be please to hear I bough back in at 7.9p today.

The reason? We've had a couple of days stability now which suggests the slide may have stopped. I'm also experiencing FOMO as it seems likley this will ramp up again, at some point anyway.

One slight concerns was it was easy enough to get a quoted price to buy £10k worth but there was no price being quoted to sell...this cost me a good few £ when i tried to sell on the way down last time and coudln't.

I will let you know when my analysis of the market condition changes, ie when topping up or selling out again.

Thank you for your response Surprised.

For the record, I cashed in an old defined benefit pension in February last year and invested it all in a SIPP. Every penny went into funds - A relatively safe bet I thought. COVID was in the news but the markets at that point were unaffected. I literally bought my last tranche of funds on Friday 21 Feb 2020. This sticks in my head as the last day BC (Before COVID). Within 2 weeks my hard-earned pension pot had lost 1/3 of it’s value. I was distraught, really didn’t know what to do, but made the decision to sell half of everything, before it got any worse.

A few days later, I thought to myself, enough is enough, the market isn’t going to tank forever. So decided to go high risk and, instead of funds, I’m going plough into some of the worst hit shares. Marstons as the first I bought. It was a “**** or bust” strategy born from the trauma of losing over £100k in the space of 2 weeks.

Now a year on, It’s been a hell of a ride and I’ve bought and sold many COVID hit shares. Several were sold too early, losing my bottle before “V” day on 9th November, but held on to enough to be able treble my money from those March 2000 lows and recover to 2x my starting position.

Overall, Its been a mad mad 12 months, the likes of which we might never see again. So now it’s time to adapt to more “normal” market conditions as you say. Still trying to figure out how to do that! The stand out bargains are much harder to identify now.

Regarding CPX, I agree there is potential and am looking to buy back in. The valuation doesn’t look stretched compared to other companies making less money and with less potential. But the potential isn’t a certainty. CPX also has a history of being a “pump and dump” share and a drift down looks kind of inevitable until some news is released. Must agree 7.6p looks a tempting re-entry point though :)

Sorry, the last part (the most important as it’s the lessons learned!) should read :

Eg I’ve vowed I’m not going to give too much weighting to any one opinion in future, and I’ve just started a subscription to Investors Chronicle magazine, which will add some professional opinions to the amateur ones I read on here and ADVFN. Started listening to the “Twin Petes” podcast also Only been at this a year but always looking to improve!

I wgrod “ I believe in my own research, some knowledge of the technology, some understanding of the products and what they bring to the markets compared to anything else, a deep dive into the company and the personel. Then a mapping of how much it ought to grow and by when. The make a decision on how much to buy and when, how much to sell and when.”

That’s all great if you have the time, which sadly I don’t really when managing a large portfolio at the same time as a full time job. Also, I’m not really convinced that doing all that really gives you an edge over the market. In fact, doing your own growth projections surely just brings in your own personal bias based upon your own limited understandings.

So I think reading the views of others and trading based upon “feel” for the market is as good an approach as any. Obviously a small amount of research too, but a realistic view that I’m never going to do enough to give me any kind of edge. Like you, my approach has worked well enough - having almost tripled the value of my portfolio since March last year (but just doubled since the February!) . These have been crazy times however with some of the most volatile stock market movements ever (to my limited knowledge) so doing great over the last year isn’t necessarily a guide to the future.

In terms of lessons learned, I stated in my message that I HAD learned my lesson. Eg I’ve viewed not going to give too much weighting to any one opinion in future, and I’ve just started a subscription to Investors Chronicle magazine, which will add some professional opinions to the amateur ones I read on here and ADVFN. Started listening to the “Twin Peters” podcast is also . Only been at this a year but always looking to improve!

Ps Should add i sold out at 10p and now looking for a re-entry (prior to next ramp up), when the price is right. Any thoughts on where this might drift to? Looks like it was stable at 4.5-5p prior to the momentum change in December....

Well said PC01.

These boards can be dangerous places. When the price is rising you get plenty of rampers cheering a share on to infinity and beyond, as you put it. This includes a certain person with over 2000 Twitter followers who, whent he sp was 12p was certain this was going above 20p "within weeks" and was rasing price target to 30p.

On the other hand, you get the likes of Grahma Wales from ADVFN who was urging caution but who got lambasted on here . As did i when i suggested he mioght be the one talking the most sense.

Who do you believe: the respected posters promising the sky, or the single contrarian getting slated for his bearish views. Lesson learned on that one!

* after I’d sold out of ARW I mean.

Hey guys, congratulations .... another chance to sell up at 295p if you regretted not doing so last time :)

Ps, while I’m here, I need to apologise for the CPX recommendation I posted on this board after I sold out myself . I foolishly believed the hype posted by the CPX ramping brigade, including a well-followed Twitter trader who was pumping hard when the price was at 12p, said the price would be at 20p in a matter of weeks and he was raising his target to 30p. Current price: 8p and falling.

You live and learn!

Indeed! I hope the rampers here are pleased with themselves?

Fortunately, Graham on ADVFN was able to see through the bs and I heeded his warnings in time (despite many on here attempting to trash him).

Not in this weather Puggley it’s bloody freezing out there, I might never feel my butt again!

Re the phone deal, many here seem to be very excited about it (as indeed was I) This is what Graham says on ADVFN:
.................
"The Board is also pleased to announce that CAP-XX is now an approved supplier to a global smart phone manufacturer and separately has commenced the formal process to become an accredited supplier to a global Automotive Tier 1 Component Supplier"

This is as a result of taking over the Murata business smoke and mirrors again from Kongats.
Ever since I was in here many moons ago from 1p they have talked about automotive and mobile phones.
Do your research you will see the same pattern.
GL but don’t get sucked in on hype
.................

I'm getting the feeling we have perhaps been sucked in by the hype here. Graham seems to know his stuff and I believe him when he says this statement is purely down to taking over the Murata buinsess ie nothing new has actually happened....or do others disagree?

Well i checked today for the first time since i sold out around 140p.

The reason i sold then was becasue i thought the reneue and profits, if they ever came, would be long time coming.

A few years later, it apprears I was right, the profits still look a long way away but the sp has gone ballistic nevertheless.

Now I have a fear of missing out (FOMO) of a mega-bagger again. It's the ones that get away that provide the greatest investor frustartion IMO!

ITM had revenue of £3m last year and made a loss of £30m

Market cap is 3.4 billion!

Similar story with Ceres Power , wich annoyingly I once held and let go when it was 1/10 of the price it is now.

Unbelieveable.

Guys where can I find these comments from Graham Wales please?

Just about everyone here is bullish on CPX (which is why I was happy to buy more at 13p). I’d appreciate hearing the bear case case too as really undecided whether to stick, twist or fold here.

What concerns me is looking back at the history of this share , over the last decade or so it’s occasionally been pumped up to the teens or higher, only to drop right back down again. Has the game really changed this time around?

Hey buster, if you’re referring to me, I had a little whinge about LOSING 10% in the space of a couple of hours, which is a whole different ball game to expecting a return.

Given you can afford to lose nearly £100k in a single stock (which I assume you can given you’ve invested that much) , I don’t think you have much right to complain someone less fortunate than yourself “doing your tree in” on a public forum.

I absoliutely agree about that, seen it happen 3 times with the release of Boohoo results/updates since July last year.

But here? I don't think the news had been rumoured..