Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Dive,
"luckily I sold 390,000 at 32p"
This confirms my view as to what killed the sp in December last year. Too many pi's got the jitters."
a little harsh . What initially killed the sp was Kerogen bulk selling into the initial Lancaster good news followed by the positive CMD. I suffered all the way down from 53p to circa 7p before getting out when the price rose above 13p post the covid19 oil price collapse, at a huge loss. My logic for selling was that all shares had fallen dramatically on the back of the virus panic (except for Hurricane which had already fallen on the back of watercut panic and didn't fall further) which provided an opportunity to diversify into other cut price shares with the opportunity to rise over a shorter timescale than Hurricane. I will add that I have subsequently doubled the value of my ISA share holding; the moral here is that Hur remains a compelling investment if oil price rebounds, but so will all other shares in construction and retail because it means a sustainable return to normality has arrived, so if you are over loaded with Hur shares and want to derisk through diversification, it's now or never. Similarly for any share holder not invested in oil, Hur is as good as an investment as any to add to a balanced portfolio.

Surely, whilst the cost of the tests may be known, the actual numbers secured at agreed contract(s) price(s) I suspect have not yet been determined so revenues cannot yet be published; in a week or twos time that will probably have changed and at that point a RNS can be published which I believe Cathal has already alluded to.

Fairview over 7 billion population and three accurate lab test products available; sounds good to me competition wise. ANyway, to run the lab tests you need the facilities to run them and guess what OO has them and so will happily accommodate their initial million per annum customer share

Fairview this provides a guide to Quotient's cut

M/c at cost and then $15-$25 per test

https://www.ft.com/content/4f33563e-cd97-4be5-8485-8c5523ab5d90

To be fair wolfi, the hospitals already hold Roche compatible equipment and Roche can scale up to the low digit millions of kit rather than 20 by the end of this year so bit of a no brainer now that Porton Down has independently verified their kit
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/public-health-england-approves-roche-test-for-coronavirus-antibodies

That said, ORPH need to be able to independently test their Human Challenge Study volunteers. Interestingly, the likely bottle neck to future scale-up will be the available of professional nurses to take the mass blood draws necessary for the tests rather than the kits themselves.

Anyway, the good news is that as I explained yesterday, a minimum sp of 11.3p - Max sp circa 16p represents the known revenue of £30M which never included an uplift for antibody testing revenue, so anyone buying in at less than 11.3p is getting a bargain

Citizen, he said the lab would be up and running for testing in a week or two not the clinic.

From Sunday's Telegraph

Over the past year Wolfson has quietly built a platform that will effectively allow Next to run other brand's website and backend operations for a fee. Also, do all their warehousing, distribution etc. Some analysts have said move will make Next more like Shopify.

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-sunday-telegraph-money-business/20200510/281771336366893

Agree on the known revenue streams (which exclude any potential COVID19 income and Imutex IPO value which is not guaranteed and hence unknown), the sp is 18p. So we have a low risk revenue stream that will lead to 18p plus unrealised opportunities that come at no additional risk at current sp that make things very interesting

Whilst we don't know the full financial/commercial split with Quotient Limited , what we do know is potentially game changing. Facts are that 12 antibody testing machines have the following test capacity;
Each machine completes 1000 tests in 8 hrs or 3000 tests per 24 hr shift period. Each test generates £99 revenue for the joint companies (costs per test and OO's agreed share unknown). Using 24hr round-the-clock 8 hr shifts means each machine will enable 21000 tests per week and 1,092,000 tests per annum which at £99 per test is revenue of £108,108,000 meaning all 12 machines generate annual revenue of £1,297,296,000 (over £1 billion). Fingers crossed with an exclusive UK agreement we have a number of these machines running 24/7 soon.

I suspect the thing holding Quotient's sp back is the comment that

"While the UK government says it has laboratory capability to test for coronavirus immunity, it is currently being used for survey testing of existing blood samples and the capacity is not known.
It is also attempting to develop home testing kits, rather than requiring analysis in laboratories, but so far these have proved unreliable."

Just a thought, but with lockdowns being eased globally and use of public transport being discouraged, there will be a lot more fuel being consumed than normal as people switch from public to private transport and of course car sharing will no longer be in vogue.

Interesting interview, more deals in the very near future and trading statement prepared next week

tenet not tenant, damn interpretive text

15p is a realistic target if the "lottery ticket" fails to win a top prize and makes Open Orphan a low risk investment opportunity in a high risk market environment. Of course, if the lottery ticket wins a big prize then the returns will be considerably more, but should be viewed as a bonus rather than a nailed on certainty so agree with the tenant of Littlevillage's post.

Wessex, the way I look at it, the more good news that comes in to reinforce the Investment Case that is sold into, provides me with an unique opportunity to increase my holding at a discount and at very low risk

With a reducing Brent Crude price and increased water cut I suspect today will provide a buying opportunity rather than an opportunity to sell on a spike

Published today

https://www.*************.net/open-orphan-expect-some-quite-substantial-contracts-interview/

With your luck Daltry you'd probably end up with a male nurse

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/oil-prices-sink-to-20-year-low-as-un-sounds-alarm-on-to-covid-19-relief-fund

US oil prices turned negative for the first time on record on Monday as North America’s oil producers run out of space to store an unprecedented oversupply of crude left by the coronavirus crisis.

The price of US crude oil collapsed by more than 105% to -$2 per barrel in a matter of hours, forcing oil producers to pay buyers to take the glut of crude which they cannot store, as rising stockpiles of crude threaten to overwhelm oil storage facilities.

The crash in demand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic also forced Canada’s benchmark oil price to plunge into negative territory for the first time on Monday.

Yes oil price is a shocker at the moment and difficult to see it recovering this year. Aussie Tourism Minister has advise their folk not to book foreign holidays this year as unlikely to be any international travel until 2021 so bang goes my dream cruise booked over a year ago for Nov 2020 :(

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8215577/Australias-tourism-minister-issues-warning-international-travel-unlikely-resume.html