Member Info for AquaeSulis01

ADUK always respect your views but things have changed from a risk perspective. Hur only have one wheel (or should that be well) on their wagon now and whilst it keeps trundling on, all good. But if that one well hits problems (and I hope it does not) this goes pear shaped, similarly if the well can subsequently be ramped up, 11p here you come in the shortish term. This is now a linear bet now, all or nothing, and henace my reference to the risk as well as the opportunity involved; toss a coin!

I'll take that politician's answer as a yes then, and there in lies the problem because unless major new ii's/partner buy into this dream and provide the funding to drill new wells, then the potential of this company will never be realised.

Longwait, "'There are a lot of people who've signed papers and articles saying that Fractured Basement 'won't work'.'

There used to be a professor of physics who refused to accept Quantum Theory.
There are still people who claim fossils are not real.
My neighbour says he doesn't believe the dinosaurs existed"

Yes, Fracture Basement has been proven to work, but they are still novel and unpredictable, as demonstrated by Dr T's own statements re their unpredictability. First oil was Jun 19 and yet only 5 mths worth of usable data has been gathered so far and no-one can predict whether the 500 million barrels of oil which are likely to be present can be commercially extracted and until it is categorically proven, this remains a high risk investment does it not?

Don't be facetious, I have answered your question within the context of your statement on debt; as explained the impact is on future capital options which has led to the sp fall. I have neither time for derampers who ignore opportunities nor rampers who discount risks, but I do feel for the genuine LTH's on here who are locked in for now and could do without flippant comments

No need to redo the sums it is covered by "sustained period of very low oil prices or unexpected operational difficulties" irrelevant that production will be reduced as a result of shutting one well it is the same as production being reduced through COVID impact

sound, debt is not an issue, the Apr Op Update, extract below, made it quite clear that sustained low oil price/operational impact would impact future capital spend options not servicing the current commitments

"While EPS operating costs of $17/bbl combined with a strong current cash balance of $152 million (unrestricted cash at 1 April 2020), provide a relatively robust financial footing at present, the Company is conscious of current macroeconomic circumstances, with oil prices having recently hit historic lows. A sustained period of very low oil prices or unexpected operational difficulties related to COVID-19 will increase pressure on its finances.

Before the COVID-19 crisis developed, the Board had agreed a capital allocation framework designed to:

· maintain healthy minimum levels of cash;

· allocate cash flow from operations towards further strengthening of the balance sheet;

· meet future financial liabilities;

· strictly control capital spending focussed on licence and contractual obligations;

· facilitate returns to shareholders at the earliest appropriate time in the future; and

· consider other drilling options, only if maximising shareholder value uplift at minimum cost.

If the current oil price environment persists for some time, this would create challenges in meeting capital allocation goals in full. The Board will consider what additional measures may be prudent as the situation unfolds."

Fairview "The assumption that Orph are going to make huge amounts of money out of this is still an assumption."
Very true, it is just an assumption, however, when the largest shareholder, who also just happens to be running the company, is willing to back that assumption will materialise, then I am more than happy to follow the money on this one and bet it all comes to pass

I should add that I genuinely hope that the June production RNS is really positive and sends the sp north.

ADUK , "Nevertheless, on Tuesday, no matter how the card game goes, if the SP opens 'red' I'll be charging right in for yet another top-up." I doubt you would be that reckless on the poker table with such average hole cards.

Water ingress in the now one remaining producing 6 well has gone from dry to 7%, I would wish to see evidence at the next production RNS that running 6 on its own has seen water cut fall to virtually nothing bearing in mind the "immaturity" of the company's data analysis. From Apr 27th RNS:-
After retrospectively analysing the drilling and petrophysical data with the benefit of the EPS data the following conclusions have been drawn:
· a 10m high permeability water bearing zone has been identified within an interpreted 40m producing interval in the 205/21a-7Z well;
· a 10m water zone has also been identified in the 205/21a-6 well, however this water zone is more distant from the interval currently producing;
· produced water from the 205/21a-6 well is therefore interpreted as being drawn from the perched water zone intersected by the 205/21a-7Z well; and
· current individual well water cuts of approximately 46% in 205/21a-7Z and 7% in 205/21a-6 during April are consistent with this revised interpretation, noting that the 205/21a-7Z figures were impacted by high water cuts immediately after a shut-in at the start of the month.

After all, the company appear to have been over-confident in their forward guidance based on the same data analysis.

The Lancaster wells have demonstrated very high productivity, despite some unexpected production of what we are confident is 'perched water', and we continue our testing programme at a combined rate of up to 20,000 bopd with the objective of evaluating sustainability and long-term trends at this target rate. It will take more time to confirm the long-term potential of the reservoir, and our operations may be impacted by measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting macroeconomic situation. However, we have sufficient confidence, based on data obtained to date, to provide current forward guidance of net 18,000 bopd."

scoredagain, there is a difference between a day trader like yourself who invests following a drop in anticipation of a quick profit, and a LTH who was continually doubled up all the way down and is being encouraged to do so again at the "new" bottom. I made that mistake of adding to my already disproportionately jarge holding in HUR when the shares fell to 34p because they were at their then "new" bottom only to see my investment shrink further when the sp fell to 7.5p on water cut panic. I felt the pain and sleepless nights many LTH's still feel before selling out at a huge loss when the sp rebounded above 13p (not at the top of the rally) on a good update despite the looming COVID and oil price collapse. SInce then I have made shorter term trades, taking advantage of the wider market fall brought about by COVID, to diversify what was left of my money into companies with less risk than oilers but at their truer bottoms, esp Open Orphan as you know, and have since tripled my money in a few months and now am only down by half my original savings. So the moral isn't to dissuade new investors, or LTHS who are not over invested, from taking a chance on today's HUR, only to suggest that there are other companies with less risk and big upsides to diversify their investment portfolio into. These range from ftse 100 NEXT with a depressed sp who have built an online platform they intend to charge other retail brands with little online presence to sell through (think the equivalent of Ocado for the fashion and cosmetics world) and is not priced in, through to construction industries that the government are throwing projects at to lead us out of the recession, and small AIM companies such as open orphan, Skinbiotherapeutics and Ceres Power with a solid set of services and products in growth areas. I am merely using these companies as examples to demonstrate there is life outside Hurricane and not suggesting you invest in these specific companies; go do some research this long weekend whilst markets are closed, and get back to having a better nights sleep.

According to oilfield glossary , interference is caused by production from another well not some foreign material.
https://glossary.oilfield.slb.com/en/terms/w/well_interference.aspx

Need luck as well as patience SS. Like the joke about the in-flight 4 engine plane, Engine 1 goes (Warwick) and announcement that still got three engines just need to wait a bit longer to get to our destination. Second engine stops (Lincoln) another announcement, bit more concerned, but still two good engines just take a little longer still. Third engine goes (Lancaster 7) now starting to get very concerned, but announcement that we still have one good engine just take even longer to get to our destination. SS pipes up and says, blimey, be patient, but I hope the final engine (Lancaster 6) doesn't pack up else we'll be up here all night!

Fairview, every company in the world has supply chain producers that take a cut, the bottom line is OO will have a profit margin in mind and that is all that you need to concern yourself with

Interesting line in the proactive interview about cash from antibody testing starting next week

The problem is Haggis, Dr T believes in his own ability to model and forecast the fractured basement a bit too much despite a series of unexpected setbacks, and there is a danger he would be prepared to lead investors into a "charge of the light brigade" action

Thinking the same thing Urraca, the change in the language between the 27th Apr production RNS , bullishness of the RNS'd Edison Report just two days ago, and today's production update, is staggering and stinks to high heaven

Sportstrader "I see the need for home testing, but more on a wider scale with third world countries who imo is the perfect target. Given a test over there is better than no test at all."

I totally disagree with you, an inaccurate test is worse than no test at all as it will provide misleading information to both the individual (false bravado) and at the macro level which could lead to the rapid development of a disastrous second spike. There is no substitute for an accurate test

Rudey, what huge RNS are you expecting on Monday?

,,and as for the Govt not committing funds to potential failures, thing Turkish PPE and home test anti body tests

So were the monkeys in a "high risk" category where they would have gone on to develop pneumonia anyway then; I suspect not?