Member Info for AquaeSulis01

With the markets buoyant in the hospitality and Travel sector following the final lockdown exit strategy, doesn't that de-risk things for Beasley at a time when premiums are being paid to insure against said event and make the chance of future profits even bigger and rosier or am I missing something?

Adyan, nothing new in the strategy so potential for divisions to be floated should not come as a surprise, after all Probiotix Health is already a fully owned subsidiary with its own CEO in the form of Stephen Prescott who incidentally is US based which helps with targeting the American Health market. With the appreciating value of the Skinbio asset and the rest of the divisions on the point of becoming profitable, I would expect any futher top-slicing sell-off of Skinbio as the sp rises, to result in dividend payments to LTH's, hence why the current share price is so undervalued. Similarly, as any future division float is likely to be once the company is profitable and hence able to support the float without tapping investors for money, that LTH's will be offered shares in the new company or promised a dividend on the strength of the float.

Me too as far as growth stocks are concerned. World's gone mad when BJ announces a tortoise style re-opening of Pubs and Restaurants in Mid May and such as the Restaurant Group see their shares rocket over 8% when they wont make a cent until then!

Nothing is free, costs to the NHS of providing various statins at the link
The research calls on Nice to recommend the more expensive pill instead. A 28-day course of simvastatin given to patients on 80mg costs around £2.30 compared with a 28-day course of atorvastatin which costs about £28. Researcher Professor Kausik Rayfrom St George’s said: “Statins are related to an increase in diabetes risk. Patients on high doses should continue and complement it with more regular screening for diabetes.
http://www.leedsformulary.nhs.uk/docs/2.12statincosts.pdf
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/254218/Cheaper-statins-on-NHS-can-put-patients-in-danger

Also, need to consider the serious side effects from statins that dissuade many people from taking them that need a treatment for their high cholesterol and blood pressure and the fact that the USA market which is much larger doesn't have a NHS to mask the cost

Agree with skid that the appointment of a CFO is essential, and noticeable skin has an appointed CFO despite being at a pre-revenue stage.

On a separate note, in contrast to skin where the sp has flown in anticipation of high revenues to come as soon as this FY from two of its products, the real question that needs to be posed to SOH is why hasn't Cholbiome been marketed just as successfully as a replacement for statins to address Cholesterol lowering?
For instance, whilst Psoriasis affects around 1.1 million people in UK (around 1.7% of the UK population) according to researchers at The University of Manchester and the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, there are around six million people in the UK who take statins to reduce their cholesterol and prevent heart disease, whilst previous research has suggested the medication increased people's chances of developing type 2 diabetes by more than 10 to 12 per cent, so why isn't CholBiome walking off the shelf?

The evidence to date would suggest that Molopo Farms does not mirror Bushveld but is more akin to the Kalahara Suture Zone, steeply dipping, dyke-like ultramafic and mafic bodies parallel to major shears interpreted as solidified feeder zones, but minus the coal bearing rocks that inject sulphur into the mix. If the Nickel Sulphide pockets are confirmed then great as the more advanced survey techniques will enable more precise targeting of these zones; but need to await assay results to confirm.
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/14839/1/GEOPHYSICAL_MODELLING_OF_THE_MOLOPO_FARMS_COMPLEX_-_for_NORA.pdf
Mineralisation
Previous mineral exploration (Behr, 1974 and 1987; Gould et al., 1987, Reichhardt, 1994) focused on finding PGE
mineralization comparable to that found in the Bushveld Complex. Efforts were made to establish a complete
igneous stratigraphy for the MFC and to identify the ultramafic-mafic contact. PGE mineralization was discovered
but found to be laterally discontinuous, even between closely spaced exploration drillholes and therefore of no
economic value. The laterally discontinuous nature of platinum mineralization noted by previous exploration
(notably by Reichhardt, 1994) may now be attributed to the laterally discontinuous nature of the host rocks.
It is suggested that an alternative exploration target are the steeply dipping, dyke-like ultramafic and mafic bodies
parallel to major shears interpreted as solidified feeder zones. According to models developed for the genesis of
magmatic Ni-Cu ± PGE sulphide deposits in Voisey’s Bay, Labrador, at Nor’ilsk in Russia and elsewhere, the
feeder conduit is regarded as a particularly favourable site for mineralisation (Evans- Lamswood et al., 2000;
Naldrett, 1999; Naldrett, 2007). Interaction of the magma with country rocks, possibly associated with the addition
of sulphur, is also an important genetic control although there is no evidence for this in the MFC. Repeated magma
flow within the feeder zones can give rise to massive sulphide mineralisation, which is preferentially developed
where physical traps exist for the concentration of sulphide droplets, either in structural embayments or
irregularities, or at the point where the feeder enters a high-level magma chamber. On this basis, future exploration
should be focused along the postulated MFC feeder zones (zones E and F in Figure 6). However, given the inferred
complexity of the intrusive plumbing in the central internal sector of the MFC and the lack of exposure, it is not
possible to predict the precise locations of targets in this part of the MFC.

Must admit am slightly confused about the depth discrepancies between RNS's; did the drilling team muddle up the core samples when they originally reported visible sulphides as 270M when they were actually found in a core at 308M and did this then lead to stopping the deepening of the drill hole to the planned 650M?

From the Dec 14th RNS "In addition, the hole is to be deepened to 600-650m as recommended by KKME's geophysicist on both geological and geophysical grounds."
From the Jan 11th RNS " Initial geological core-logging by KKME's consulting geologist has identified 4.4 metres of ultramafic rocks with finely disseminated sulphides in angled hole KKME 1-6 at approximately 270m vertical depth."
From today's RNS "The second diamond drill hole at the MFC Project, KKME 1-6, has been continued from 547m to a final depth of 598 metres in ultramafic rocks. The extra hole depth will provide further core from the geophysical target depth and will assist in further geophysical interpretation. "Logging KKME 1-6 cut core has identified disseminated sulphide mineralisation below 500m drill hole depth, notably in the section marked as a target by the geophysics. This is further to disseminated sulphide mineralisation identified around 308-313m drill hole depth from the initial KKME 1-6 core inspection (announced 11 January 2021)

minded, a platform on Opti = a division i.e. skinbio with all its products is one division. probiotics another etc. Skin has 5 potential products; two at the commercial stage and three not.

With you there eshaitan, beauty of it is that the higher the skin share price goes the more the opti profits increase so way I see it at today's price, buy opti, hold skin and sell something else

Hi Phat, my own position three quarters in favour of Skin would suggest I totally agree with you re Skins prospects versus Opti, my point re Opti potentially selling Skin in the not too distant future relates to their stated intent on the advice of accountants to record their skin investment in the P&L Accounts which means that they do not intend to hold onto skin as a long term investment else they would not be able to record it there if I am reading the lesson at the link provided correctly.

Cheers Ted

Thanks minded, not seen that post and glad I caveated my response so apology stands to Ted.
Phat, I suspect SOH will sell down skin as the price rises just as he already has on a couple of occasions in the past; the real question is what will he do with the money; pay a dividend to long suffering holders or use it to prop up the company?

For the benefit of doubt I hold both skin and opti shares 75%/23% respectively.

From Sep 2018 RNS

"In July 2016, OptiBiotix announced a strategy to develop its technology platforms into separate divisions; each containing its own technology platform, intellectual property portfolio and partner agreements. In due course these divisions could become separate legal entities with the potential for a separate public listing. The first step in this strategy was commenced in March 2016 when OptiBiotix formed SkinBiotix Limited, which was admitted as Skinbiotherapeutics plc to AIM in April 2017. The listing of Skinbiotherapeutics plc materialised the value of a part of the business in which a 52% stake was acquired by OptiBiotix for £250K in March 2016 and which now has a market valuation of around £24m, with OptiBiotix® owning a 41.9% shareholding (£11.7m)."

Ted, not sure if your barbed comments were directed at my post, but if they are you are an 4rse, if not apologies but you need to name who you are responding to. The title of the thread (which I did not initiate) is Skin v Opti so any comments re Opti are valid on this board in that context.

Phat, one thought about whether opti will hold onto skin share; there intent to classify the skin investment in the profit and loss column of their accounts would suggest this is not a long term investment else they would be required to classify it under Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income which means it cannot be included in the P&L accounts.

https://opentuition.com/acca/fr/financial-instruments-example-fvtpl-and-fvtoci-acca-financial-reporting-fr/

Agree skid, will be nice to see the final accounts and how the central costs have been apportioned to the divisions. For instance, I would not expect to see Fred Narbel's costs associated with the probiotics divisions. Also, the new accounting of Skinbio is significant i.e. despite the holding being above the 20% threshold they will no longer be treated as an Investments in associates, which they were at last years EOY accounts. See note from last year's accounts:
"Associates are those entities in which the Group has significant influence, but not control or joint control over the financial and operating policies. Significant influence is presumed to exist when the Group holds between 20 and 50 percent of the voting power of another entity. Investments in associates are accounted for under the equity method and are recognised initially at cost. The cost of the investment includes transaction costs.

The consolidated financial statements include the Group's share of profit or loss and other comprehensive income of equity-accounted investees, after adjustments to align the accounting policies with those of the Group, from the date that significant influence commences until the date that significant influence ceases.

When the Group's share of losses exceeds its interest in an equity-accounted investee, the carrying amount of the investment, including any long-term interests that form part thereof, is reduced to zero, and the recognition of further losses is discontinued except to the extent that the Group has an obligation or has made payments on behalf of the investee."

Not sure OO's universal flu vaccine needs tweaking to suddenly become very commercially desirable
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/suppressed-seasonal-flu-may-come-back-vengeance-next-winter/
Expect flu to surge next winter, warn experts
Experts fear falling immunity levels to influenza could pave the way for a 'more severe epidemic', putting the NHS under yet more pressure

By
Sarah Newey,
GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY CORRESPONDENT and
Paul Nuki,
GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY EDITOR
20 February 2021 • 4:09pm

Experts have warned the world may face a dramatic resurgence of flu next winter, after social distancing measures cut the virus to levels not seen for over a century.

Scientists fear that falling immunity levels to influenza - normally sustained by seasonal circulation of the virus - could now pave the way for one of the worst flu outbreaks for years.

“If I had to gamble on it, then I would guess that we are likely to get a more severe epidemic in the coming winter - assuming restrictions are fully lifted by then,” said Prof John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a member of the government’s Sage committee of scientific advisors.

“We have effectively missed out on flu this winter, so the levels of immunity are less than would be typical. In fact, it is not impossible that we will have an out-of-season epidemic perhaps in the autumn, rather than winter,” he told the Telegraph.

Warnings about seasonal flu come as Russia on Saturday announced seven workers at a poultry farm have been infected with a bird flu virus, H5N8, never before found in humans.

“It is not transmitted from person to person,” said Anna Popova, the country’s public-health chief. “But only time will tell how soon future mutations will allow it to overcome this barrier.” She added that Russia has alerted the World Health Organization (WHO).

In most years in the UK, seasonal flu kills between 10,000 and 30,000 people, depending on the stain and effectiveness of the annual vaccine. But over the last 12 months, flu deaths have hardly registered.

Skid, reading between the lines I side reason for reporting divisional figures separately is because the company intends to float both divisions as separate companies in the near future and repeat its successful formula for skin. From the RNS "The strategy has been designed with the divisions acting as the trading arms of the Company focused on commercialising products and achieving divisional profitability whilst the Company acquires and develops its own technologies to build the product pipeline by providing the scientific and clinical studies, publications and regulatory approvals (GRAS, GMP pharma) for commercialising its next generation products. Having two separate product platforms (Functional Fibres and Probiotics) and an investment in a third (SkinBioTherapeutics plc), whose value has appreciated during the year, gives OptiBiotix shareholders a position in multiple opportunities within the fast emerging microbiome space. Whilst this takes longer than a single technology solution, the strategy is designed to reduce investment risk and create the potential for multiple returns.""The strategy has been designed with the divisions acting as the trading arms of the Company focused on commercialising products and achieving divisional profitability whilst the Company acquires and develops its own technologies to build the product pipeline by providing the scientific and clinical studies, publications and regulatory approvals (GRAS, GMP pharma) for commercialising its next generation products. Having two separate product platforms (Functional Fibres and Probiotics) and an investment in a third (SkinBioTherapeutics plc), whose value has appreciated during the year, gives OptiBiotix shareholders a position in multiple opportunities within the fast emerging microbiome space. Whilst this takes longer than a single technology solution, the strategy is designed to reduce investment risk and create the potential for multiple returns. "

The recent dip in the price has coincided with a sector wide reversal that has more likely been driven by a lot of recent warnings, including today's FT about the "Green Bubble" with prices over inflated . Try googling "Green bubble warnings grow as money pours into renewable stocks." and see how many recent articles pop up.

Now when you read the source of these articles which appears to be Nino Tronchetti Provera, founder of Ambienta, (see link), his Investment Company holds both long and short positions in the sector, and whilst he references hydrogen as one area that is over hyped, he actually targets transitioning energy companies late to the game (think shell, BP, rather than established hydrogen companies like Ceres. So, Ceres has been caught up in the recent sector reversal but will equally bounce back very quickly, and move on up based on the continuous progress it is making I suspect.
Giraffe, you are making the same mistakes I made in my early investing days with your knee-jerk reactions to price volatility. If you do your research on a company and find the basics to be sound you must ignore these sudden drops, hold for a longer term and keep the faith rather than chasing rainbows.

https://ambientasgr.com/environmental-finance-environmental-investing-pioneer-sounds-green-bubble-warning/

Spreadsheet updated and pretty accurate too :)

Concur with your thoughts at this point in time Phat. None-the-less that does not mean that Opti are not oversold and when all the full royalty payments are shown alongside the current profit from their Skin investment in the Final Accounts the price will bounce higher. In addition, the Opti second generation products carry higher margins and the jewel in the crown is sweetbiotix; once that launches commercially it will be a game changer.