Member Info for aprogerson

@ken Just waiting on news flow as follows:
> Rincon to announcement start of Exploration = estimate end Mar-2021 after wet season ends
> Rogue Baron IPO = estimate H1 2021
> Low6 IPO = estimate H1 2021

... and/or GUN announcement on:
> Further investment in Rincon following SP weakness ... 20%+ holding target?
> possible copper investment ???
AIMHO APR

This guys tweets are relentless ... and seriously deluded.
Thank goodness LSE banned him for multiple deluded personalities supporting each others views on this BB ... comedy gold!
APR

@Tinners just received my letter in the post so looks like GWMO are pulling out all the stops to get this done and chase up all holders even if their shares are held by brokers ... HL in my case.
ATB APR

@viable Interestingly I do rate CCZs Zambian tenement at Mkushi Project surrounding the SYG mine if only that once proven up there is an obvious trade sale situation to SYG. The high grades found by SYG at Mkushi as per the CCZ presentation are unusual.

I'm fairly familiar with Zambia as heavily invested in ARC minerals to the west of Sentinel so know that more recent mines tend to be relatively low grade but massive. Arc have 17km drilled out across multiple Copper/Cobalt targets and no MRE at a cost of $3.5m so I'm under no illusions that CCZs licences are realistically 2+ years off as they will need to be funded and dilution is not the sensible approach.

CCZ are wise to focus on Mt Oxide as it has near term potential and with 3x shallow, high-grade targets between Big One and Arya plus the deep Arya target as a bonus high risk/high reward play I am happy to stick with them. The recent possible extensions at BO are very encouraging so the next 2-3 months will be very interesting.
APR

@Viable a good example of a 'low' grade but viable Copper mine is Sentinel in Zambia owned by First Quantum Minerals with stated average grades of 0.51% but is UBER big ...
> Resource 923.3Mt @ 0.53% Cu
> Reserve 869.7Mt @ 0.49% Cu
> Production (2019) 220,006 tonnes Cu stated from average grade 0.51%

In mining grade, quantity of ore and depth of resource is (almost) everything. IF BO is shallow, very high grade and of a decent size then it could well be commercial HOWEVER processing of ore is a big issue as it is very capital intensive unless you can piggy back off someone else plant at a sensible 'toll' processing price. The big bonus of CCZ is it has multiple decent targets in close proximity which together allows one main site camp and/or processing centre to be built to service all sites.
ATB APR

@mostyn Admire your chutzpah I'm out for now but will keep under review.
ATB APR

@lantier I think you are missing your true vocation as a modern day lyricist or social commentator
ATB APR

The simple truth I can see from everything that has been said is that HUM need to be open and honest about the current mine plan and how that dovetails with the expenditure across all its sites with dates for when new resources will come on stream. My expectation is that near term items will be much higher confidence than 6, 12 or even 18 months or more in the future but the level of uncertainty can be modelled with central and outlier predictions made. No information, no detailed mine plan or updates after the last RNS is just unacceptable ... how do they expect to regain investor confidence if they do not have the confidence to communicate their central assumptions.

If they have the information share the info and make the case
If they don't have the information then Dan should go and install someone who knows how to do the job

If they cannot express this information on maximum 3 slides that we can all say 'Yeah I get it now!' then they are doing it wrong.
AIMHO APR ... still waiting!

@JTD Which confirms that the Zod mine is still very much operational & productive ... the only question is how big a share of that production will accrue to AAZ when this mess has been sorted out. GPM seem deluded that because they are there and operating it that seems to somehow entitle them to take and keep further spoils indefinitely. I strongly suspect some sort of production sharing agreement to be agreed if nothing else to keep the lights on whilst AAZ sort out what to do with it going forward.

If my memory was correct they will need GPMs processing facility anyway so some sort of agreement would be a practical outcome for AAZ.
AIMHO APR

@Chisler Slight problem with poor drilling results at one of their targets where expectations were running very high especially as it would have been 100% attributable to GGP. Never thought I'd see if drop back to my top slice SP !
GLA APR

@91D Yes check my posting history for NAV calcs probably from Dec-20 but won't be too far out
ATB APR

POG broke support through $1800 earlier, but given AAZ is a low cost producer and with stonking upside potential as well as being a poly metallic producer I'm as relaxed as I can be.
Given I sold up out of HUM to take my position here on 'the' RNS I could easily have been having a much worse day!
APR

I was stunned reading yesterdays RNS and the increase in AISC expected for the forthcoming year as I was only expecting (at worst) 3-6 months at elevated levels with an aggressive plan to demonstrate it was understood and needed to be controlled. Given that this was NOT done and no detailed presentation issued in parallel to justify the continued high cash burn on 'other' spend the SP should not be a surprise to anyone.

In the interests of full disclosure I sold down my holding 2 weeks ago to pickup a good chunk of AAZ following return of contested Azeri territories with a view to swapping back into HUM over the next 8-12 weeks knowing that the year-end report and 2021 guidance would 'land' in my absence. It was a hard decision but now I'm pleased I did.

Personally I really like HUM as I think it has phenomenal prospects, but unless this situation is sorted out and quickly I'm not going to move funds back if this lacklustre under-performance continues.
I will have HUM on my watchlist as a possible recovery play.
ATB APR

Looks like PX has broken out to the upside of current pennant from 18-Jan 7.25p top and has also broken above 50% Fib retracement at 5.5p. Any close above 5.5p is positive news and a close above 5.7p prior support now resistance would be even better.
AIMHO APR

I'm guessing the market can also do the calcs and taking the current Yanfolila drilling as extending LOM particularly (if I am reading it correctly) as the new 60koz is just replacing what has been recently consumed.

I know we were not expecting wonderful news, but materially worst AISC with no explanation as to what 'recovery' looks like is REALLY poor comms. Exploration investment has gone materially up so for flat gold production & realised price this has also driven up expected $AISC.
APR

@Contra I have read elsewhere that the actual share the Azeri government gets after the prior sunk cost has been considered is around 12.5% which is the contractual minimum regardless of sunk costs. Sorry I just cannot remember where it was that I read it.
APR

@ken As always DYOR on PREM but Zimbabwe government have also serially reneged on several commitments including paying Dollar debts in 'new' shiny but worthless Zimbabwe currency ... GR also has a habit of buying new stuff regularly which doesn't help dilution much !

Looks like the shorts have put silver back in its box!

Gap on both silver and HOC charts now slammed shut in first 10 minutes of trading ... where to now?

The HOC SP is currently gapped at 231 to 237p and I will be pleasantly surprised if it survives today if nothing else to close the gap and confirm 231/232 downtrend prior resistance as support.
Happy days
APR